If everything went pear-shaped this year it was easy to see a scenario where Damien Hardwick decided it was time to walk away from Punt Road.
Had Richmond continued its post-dynasty stumble for a second straight season, why wouldn’t he decide it was time for a fresh challenge?
As both Brendon Gale and Hardwick have admitted recently, the hub lifestyle and Covid challenges have worn on both of them individually, at times pushing them to breaking strain in their individual roles.
And through it all the coach has gone through a relationship break-up that has tested loyalties, given his new partner worked at Punt Road, which for a time put noses out of joint for some employees at Richmond.
Yet nine rounds into the season, Damien Hardwick looks to be having a ball.
Richmond surely can’t win the flag.
Prime midfield movers Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert aren’t even certainties in any given week let alone through four gruelling consecutive finals.
They haven’t beaten much yet either – GWS, the Western Bulldogs, West Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood.
Their defence still leaks like a sieve.
Yet Hardwick, seemingly under siege last year and admitting he “wasn’t at his best” as he was worn down by AFL rule changes and constant injuries, is on fire.
A white-hot contender is going to run into Richmond in September in a qualifying or elimination final and realise this team is still capable of some finals carnage.
Imagine the build-up to a potential MCG final against a side like Carlton: Dusty in the centre square, Tom Lynch at full forward, the experience of 12 finals since 2017 and what is effectively a free swing after all the Tigers have achieved.
More importantly, whenever Hardwick does go out he will have set this side up to dodge the cliff that came so dramatically to Brisbane and Essendon’s dynasty sides.
Here are the 11 signs that Damien Hardwick has got his coaching mojo back.
1. How can you not start with Tom Lynch?
Instead of hailing a cab he is jumping at the ball with confidence and authority. A player who rated his 2021 season as a five out of 10 is leading the Coleman and AFL in contested marks (2.9 per game).
Would Dimma prefer this version or the one he defended as simply playing his very specific role in the Richmond forward line when he wasn’t getting a kick?
Lynch has never kicked more goals in a three-week period across 202 AFL games and any doubts about Richmond’s cap obligations to him – his seven-year deal running to 2025 was massively back-ended – have washed away.
Lynch has been targeted the most of any forward in the comp but is also buttering up at ground level, second of all key forwards for ground ball gets.
2. ‘Dimma’ is flipping the magnets.
Jayden Short as a midfielder has been a rip-roaring success.
He has averaged 26 possessions without his usual heavy reliance on kick-ins and his 621 metres gained per week in his three weeks in the centre would eclipse league-leader Christian Petracca if he could sustain it.
He is averaging 18 centre bounces in that time – behind only Trent Cotchin and Dion Prestia giving the midfield a more diverse look and added depth.
On the weekend Kane Lambert played 98 per cent forward (with six score involvements and 19 possessions) while when Prestia is fit he is in rare form.
His 28 touches, 511 metres gained, eight clearances, 11 score involvements were all season-highs.
3. Liam Baker
Baker is footy’s most unassuming and versatile star, flipping from offence into defence in the past three weeks without fuss.
He held white-hot Dylan Moore to his quietest game on Saturday, had 24 possessions (a season high) and 14 intercepts (a career high).
Who wouldn’t want to coach this kid?
4. Maurice Rioli Jr
Baker’s flip into defence has allowed room for Maurice Rioli Jr to strut his stuff.
You know what he brings – elite pressure – and while he was non-existent on offence against Hawthorn he had the third-most pressure points for Richmond.
He had three direct score assists against Collingwood and three goals in his first game of the year.
The No. 51 draft pick is only 19 and should have 200 AFL games ahead of him.
5. Are these key posts sorted for a decade?
Noah Balta’s hamstring issue will likely sideline him for some weeks but at 22 he could form the centre half back- full back combo with Josh Gibcus for 10 years if Hardwick settles him down in the back half.
He can lock down (he kept Brody Mihocek to one goal, Mitch Lewis to two), he can intercept mark (seven intercept marks against Collingwood), he can be thrown forward (eight goals in the first three rounds).
Put it this way, would Tiger fans swap him for Darcy Moore, and Moore is on $900,000 a year for the next six seasons?
6. Young gun going under the radar
Josh Gibcus’ first season has been sneaky good after being backed in by Damien Hardwick early.
The No. 9 draft pick kept Jack Darling goalless in the Eagles massacre, kept Ben Brown to one goal in round 6, kept Cody Weightman goalless in their head-to-head match-up, kept Tim Membrey to one goal in round 3.
Here is the cautionary note to all of those vibes and a reason why the top four sides might still cut Richmond apart.
Across the season the Tigers are still 18th for conceding a score from an opposition entry, 16th from points conceded from stoppages, only 11th for defence.
Dylan Grimes has missed four games and Nick Vlastuin five, but the decision to play Bigoa Nyuon ahead of Robbie Tarrant this weekend showed a welcome eye to the future.
7. The $600K game-changer
Shai Bolton signed a deal last year reported to be around $600,000 per season.
He is a game-changer both in the midfield and forward, and the tear he has been on since then is something to behold.
On face value that deal was an absolute bargain.
A player just as likely to take mark of the year as kick goal of the year has kicked multiple goals in seven of nine matches, changed the game in the centre square in the second quarter against Hawthorn, has suction cups for hands as a ground-ball exponent.
And he’s 23 years of age.
He and Lynch would be pushing each other for the lead in the Jack Dyer Medal.
8. What’s next for Dusty?
The narrative has been that Dustin Martin has eased back into footy in his last two weeks.
He has kicked five goals (including a goal-of-the-year contender), averaged over 20 touches, had 11 and 10 score involvements, had three direct assists, has pretty much done as he pleased.
All from maybe three or four full training sessions after a six-week break.
What to make of the trade speculation?
Peggy O’Neal says he has sworn he would never play for another club, GWS is openly talking about how players love the NSW lifestyle in a sign they are surely courting him.
Richmond can’t lose either way.
If he asked for a trade they would ask for 21-year-old Tom Green (in what would actually be a fair trade given he is a decade younger), and if they said no the next request would be the uncontracted Tim Taranto and a first-rounder.
This might sound sacrilegious but if Richmond could get 270 games and three flags out of Martin and trade him for 21-year-old Green they should be prepared to pay some of Martin’s 2023-24 salary to make it happen.
His $1.2 million salary is an impediment to him moving and while he owes Richmond nothing they benefit from a trade or from him playing on well into his 30s.
9. The draft has and will help
Richmond’s draft hand from 2021 will be followed by a bumper 2022 crop.
The Tigers went Josh Gibcus (pick 9), Tom Brown (pick 17), Tyler Sonsie (pick 28), Sam Banks (pick 29), Judson Clark (pick 30).
The unwrapped early Christmas present in the November draft is North Melbourne’s second-round draft pick.
The Tigers secured it in the Callum Coleman-Jones-Robbie Tarrant trade and the Roos’ diabolical season means it will fall around pick 19 or 20.
Richmond has its own first and second-rounders intact so should have three picks in the top 30 or so selections.
Even if Martin stays Richmond needs another young mid so that extra pick gives the recruiting team so much flexibility.
10. How good are the kids?
The kids keep getting chances, even if not all of them are taking them.
Shane Edwards is playing more wing time this year (averaging only six centre bounces).
Half back dasher Hugo Ralphsmith showed real promise before a rib injury, but will one of Jack Ross, Thomson Dow or Riley Collier-Dawkins show themselves to be a 150-game player?
Ross has played seven games (two as the sub), Collier-Dawkins two with little effect, Dow five with only one eye-catcher against St Kilda (23 touches).
Hardwick keeps filtering them in even if pick 20 Collier-Dawkins is now in his fourth season for only 11 AFL games.
11. What happens next for the plus-30s players?
Josh Caddy has retired but by October Richmond will have 10 30-year-olds on their list – Lynch, Dion Prestia, Marlion Pickett, Kane Lambert, Dylan Grimes, Martin, Cotchin (33 in April), Robbie Tarrant (34 in April), Jack Riewoldt (34 in October), Shane Edwards (34 in October).
Richmond transitioned out Bachar Houli last year, while it’s not apparent what Riewoldt and Cotchin will do.
Riewoldt (11.3 from seven games, five games with two goals) is the perfect foil for Lynch and is clever enough to have an influence next year.
Tarrant is contracted for next year, Lambert has a decision to make given his hip issues, Prestia (2024) and Grimes (2023) are both contracted.
What of the coach? He has a deal through to 2024, will clearly coach next year and might even believe like his old coach Kevin Sheedy he can get the next group up for another tilt in 3-5 years.
Richmond lost the 1982 Grand Final and then finished out of the finals in 10th, eighth, eighth, 10th, 14th, 10th, 14th, 11th, 13th, 13th, 14th and ninth before the 1995 finals series.
Hardwick’s greatest achievement will forever be his 2017-2020 dynasty but if can set up the new era or even be involved in it his legacy will grow even more until they eventually assemble a statue of him at Punt Road.
