Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[one-eyed]

It’s the closest race for AFL finals this century. Here’s what every contender needs to make it

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
August 2nd, 2023

11. RICHMOND (9-9-1, 97.9%)

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

How many wins to play finals? At least 3

It probably comes down to this Friday night for the Tigers - in fact, if our predictions are correct except for a Richmond win over the Bulldogs, they’d sneak into eighth. Their percentage is a real obstacle too with Carlton, Geelong and Sydney all winning that tiebreaker, so Tigers fans should be hoping those sides in particular have some struggles. Much like their opponent this Friday night, they wouldn’t want to go into Round 24 needing a win to save their season - but that feels like the most likely scenario. But the true worst-case option would be losing their next two, which is entirely possible, and would effectively eliminate them (though not mathematically).

Verdict? 2-2, finish 11th

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-finals-2023-finals-race-analysed-contenders-for-top-eight-verdict-ladder-predictor-wins-and-losses-what-they-need-news/news-story/9a7201cfc2d9f6af26ca011b6e97245c

[one-eyed]

Barrett reckons we'll beat the Dogs but lose to the Saints based on what he says here:

https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1686704175252373506

[mightytiges]

Likely finishing places for us:

3 more wins = 8th
2 more wins = 11th
1 more win = 13th
0 more wins = 15th

Gone for two as St Kilda and Norf are rubbish, but dish up more 'efforts' like Friday night and the latter isn't out of the equation .


                Current           R22         R23         R24        Final
                   Pts                                                          Pts

Carlton         46               Melb       GC (A)     GWS         54
   
Bulldogs       44             Haw (A)     WCE      Geel (A)      52   

Geelong       42              Coll (G)    StK (A)     Dogs         50

Adelaide       40            Bris (A)     Syd       WCE (A)      48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS            44            Port (A)      Ess        Carl (A)      48

Sydney         42               GC       Adel (A)      Melb        46

Richmond     38             StK (A)     Norf       Port (A)      46

St Kilda        44                Rich        Geel      Bris (A)      44

Essendon      36              Norf      GWS (A)      Coll         44

Legend:
Win
Loss

[TigerLand]

So Pick 7.

I feel like this year has been such a black cloud mainly around the decision to trade our first pick. Pick 7 would be lovely to help rebuild but it is what it is. GWS may struggle to fit players in their cap again so who knows.

[one-eyed]

AFL Run Home after Round 21

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
August 7th, 2023

13. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)

Remaining games

Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium

Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG

Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Third-easiest

The Tigers are pretty much done, needing to win all three of their remaining games to have any realistic shot of making the eight. That’s already unlikely. But even with 12 and a half wins, with their percentage, they’re in trouble. The teams they need to pass - the others with a draw, like Geelong and Sydney - actually won on the weekend, effectively building a two-game lead. In a realistic best-case scenario, Richmond goes into Round 24 needing to beat Port Adelaide away with other results going their way to make the eight. And even getting to that point won’t be easy.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.25 wins, finishing 13th

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-21-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/2ac42086531cbb6e0a79d8c9196f78ba

[WilliamPowell]

Love your optimism MT but our season is done

Even with 3 wins we are so reliant on other results. Throw in our % and we are cooked.

3 games have cost us finals and they are not games that are after Dimma left

It is a wasted season

[one-eyed]

13. RICHMOND
Won: 9, Lost: 10, Drawn: 1, Point: 38, Percentage: 94.8

You can scratch Richmond off the list of finals contenders now. Even if the Tigers win out from here, 12-and-a-half wins likely won’t be enough with that below-par percentage. A potential MCG farewell for Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt looms in round 23.

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/afl-run-home-finals-spots-set-to-be-decided-in-round-24/news-story/a24f337f994f3b9fa4058b3495684c55

[torch]

Likely finishing places for us:

3 more wins = 8th
2 more wins = 11th
1 more win = 13th
0 more wins = 15th

Gone for two as St Kilda and Norf are rubbish, but dish up more 'efforts' like Friday night and the latter isn't out of the equation .


                Current           R22         R23         R24        Final
                   Pts                                                          Pts

Carlton         46               Melb       GC (A)     GWS         54
   
Bulldogs       44             Haw (A)     WCE      Geel (A)      52   

Geelong       42              Coll (G)    StK (A)     Dogs         50

Adelaide       40            Bris (A)     Syd       WCE (A)      48
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GWS            44            Port (A)      Ess        Carl (A)      48

Sydney         42               GC       Adel (A)      Melb        46

Richmond     38             StK (A)     Norf       Port (A)      46

St Kilda        44                Rich        Geel      Bris (A)      44

Essendon      36              Norf      GWS (A)      Coll         44

Legend:
Win
Loss

Agree, "IF" ... "IF" we win next 3 we could still sneak in.

After Friday night's effort, chances are 0%

Win next 3 and we could sneak in.

We have no picks in the draft so at least play out the last 3 matches like a final.

2023 season isn't officially over yet.

[rogerd3]

Love your optimism MT but our season is done

Even with 3 wins we are so reliant on other results. Throw in our % and we are cooked.

3 games have cost us finals and they are not games that are after Dimma left

It is a wasted season

Had 2 wasted years since 2020
Times are for the changin I say.

[one-eyed]

The AFL website has us finishing 12th.

AFL.com.au's predicted final ladder*

1. Collingwood
2. Melbourne
3. Port Adelaide
4. Brisbane
5. Carlton
6. Geelong
7. Western Bulldogs
8. Adelaide
-----------------------------------
9. Greater Western Sydney
10. Sydney
11. St Kilda
12. Richmond
13. Essendon
14. Gold Coast
15. Fremantle
16. Hawthorn
17. North Melbourne
18. West Coast

* Our eight reporters completed our ladder predictor and picked their expected top eight. Their responses were then tallied and averaged out to get a combined predicted ladder

https://www.afl.com.au/news/997466/top-eight-double-chance-who-misses-we-predict-the-ladder

[one-eyed]

AFL Power Rankings after Round 21

Max Laughton
Foxsports
8 August 2023

11. RICHMOND (9-10-1, 94.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 10

A bad run of injuries heading into and during Friday night’s game limited the Tigers’ chances of a season-saving win, and in the end their midfield was belted off the park. In previous seasons they didn’t need to win that area to be successful; this year, they do, and Dion Prestia and Tim Taranto couldn’t carry the team by themselves. The AFL clearly has a bit of faith in Richmond yet, giving them a Sunday game in Round 24 - and if they beat the Saints and Kangaroos over the next fortnight, they should still be playing for a spot in September. But from here, pretty much everything has to go right, and it’s very rare teams in that scenario actually get everything they want.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-21-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-finals-contenders/news-story/1584fae111de58f54ada2600aebf4297

[one-eyed]

Tigers’ burning question: Do Richmond deserve to play finals?

When Damien Hardwick walked away in May citing exhaustion, it appeared Richmond’s hopes of playing finals went with him. But the Tigers have rallied under interim coach Andrew McQualter and produced some great footy to have them half a win outside the top eight heading into last round. But against the Bulldogs, the Tigers didn’t fire a shot in the opening term, with the match essentially over at quarter time. Tigers star Jack Riewoldt conceded the loss – which now sees the six points and percentage adrift of the top eight – was “really, really disappointing“. “To have the outs that we had, you really want the team to step up,” he said on AFL 360. “Our own destiny isn’t in our own hands now. You still strive to play finals, but more importantly we strive to get back to the form we had five quarters ago.” But after the “soul-sapping” loss, do the Tigers deserve a shot?

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-the-blowtorch-round-22-preview-every-clubs-burning-question-fox-footy-commentators-tv-broadcast-guide-fixture-latest-news/news-story/fd14820d114748fc455f5ff0e9a31b0f

[Francois Jackson]

i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.

i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.

[WilliamPowell]

i even think with 3 wins we still wont make it.

i wonder how many years you need 13 plus wins to make the 8. i wouldnt thought many.

Agree Frankie (does happen occasionally  ) 3 wins won't get us in

We are relying on other results going our way, like the Cats last night.

So based on that I don't think we deserve it. We blew it early in the year, while Dimma was still coach

A wasted season 

[eliminator]

The lack of development of the younger players is what makes it a wasted year. Gibcus very unlucky with injury but barely played Sonsie. Brown Banks, Sonsie and Ryan should be playing for remainder of season
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