Richmond vs Geelong @ the MCG --- Round 9, 2023

[one-eyed]

Richmond vs Geelong

West Coast are one of the trio of false-dawn teams of the AFL. Forget getting too excited about beating West Coast, North Melbourne or Hawthorn, the results are basically pre-ordained and performances mean little.

Just look at Carlton last week to this.

So Richmond won’t be frothing about beating the Eagles. They will though be encouraged by Shai Bolton having his best game of the year.

Geelong, likewise, will be pleased to be back winning again but victories over Sydney when Callum Mills had to play full-back and Essendon, who had no tall backs, will have left them cautiously pleased. Beating a vastly improved Adelaide, at home, was the best of those wins.

Now the hamstring injury to Paddy Dangerfield, coupled with the toe injury to Cam Guthrie, has ushered in the moment for Geelong to look at their next-generation midfield. Max Holmes was excellent moving on the ball from a wing on Saturday and Tanner Bruhn was brought into the club for just this type of role.

They face Richmond on Friday night, and it is a Tigers team that was run into better form by the Eagles. Richmond always look vastly different with Dion Prestia in the team and, yes, Bolton had his best game of the year, but Jacob Hopper was the one. He has been good after a slow start this year and was very good on Saturday. This is the moment Hopper can stamp himself as the Tigers’ midfield leader.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/four-points-the-self-destructive-blues-the-plan-to-stop-daicos-in-his-tracks-20230506-p5d6ai.html

[one-eyed]

Geelong's appeal has failed. So, Brad Close will miss for them.

https://thewest.com.au/sport/afl/geelongs-brad-close-found-guilty-by-afl-tribunal-c-10597187

[TigerLand]

Would give my left nut to beat these mongrels.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

You might need to

[Gracie]

Make it so

Thanks for taking one for the team

[WilliamPowell]

Well I am away this round, up in Brisbane for a wedding

So we are a huge chance now

[Willy]

They have some serious outs. This is a real opportunity for us to get our season back on track if we are good enough….which we probably aren’t….

[one-eyed]

The Blowtorch: Every AFL club’s burning question for Round 9 of 2023 season

Ben Waterworth, Ben Cotton and Max Laughton
Fox Sports
May 11th, 2023

Tigers’ burning question: Is there a spark in their season?

Richmond looked like the Tigers of old last week in a 46-point win over West Coast, albeit a very undermanned Eagles side that currently occupy 17th place on the ladder. But it was the way Damien Hardwick’s side stuck to its system that’s served it so well in recent years that really stood out plus standout performances from Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto as they continue to mesh with their new teammates. The Tigers face a much bigger test this week though against an in-form Cats side, but David King pointed out on Fox Footy’s First Crack the Tigers had their highest handball metres gained game for the year against West Coast, adding: “I was looking signs of life and I think we saw them, that explosive half-back to half-forward run … This is Richmond of two or three years ago and I don’t think it’s that far away.”

Cats’ burning question: Could the loss of Danger expose their midfield?

Geelong skipper Patrick Dangerfield is set to miss several weeks with a hamstring injury, leaving a key void in Geelong’s more vulnerable midfield amid a dominant stretch from the superstar. Crucially, it comes in a week the Cats face Richmond’s much-improved on-ball brigade from recent years, now led by Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto in an area Damien Hardwick’s side could get ascendancy in the contest, while both sides are missing their first-choice ruckmen. With Dangerfield and Cameron Guthrie out for a few more weeks, the responsibility will now fall on Mark Blicavs and Max Holmes, who Leigh Montagna dubbed the “odd couple” on Fox Footy’s First Crack, adding: “It’s an unlikely duo that are going to the No. 1 and 2 midfielders for this Cats side … but what they do is unique and important. Holmes now with the added responsibility is going to get the opportunity to flourish. I think it’s great to see a bit of a changing of the guard.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-blowtorch-round-9-preview-every-clubs-burning-question-fox-footy-commentators-tv-broadcast-guide-analysis-fixture/news-story/31caaaab6a696a304cb24ed6008a23d9

[one-eyed]

Umps this week:

Brett Rosebury (8 )
John Howorth (17)
Andre Gianfagna (27)
Martin Rodger (37)

https://www.afl.com.au/afl/matches/4858#line-ups

[one-eyed]

Richmond v Geelong Preview

Hugh Fitzpatrick
SEN
11 May 2023

The depleted Cats head to the MCG as one of the form teams in the competition having won their last five games by an average of 55 points.

Unfortunately for Chris Scott’s side, they’ll be without premiership stars Patrick Dangerfield and Brad Close who will both miss this big clash due to injury and suspension respectively.

As for Richmond, they’ve had a very disappointing 2023, battling both injury and form.

They enjoyed their second win of the year last week against West Coast, smacking the helpless Eagles by 46 points with a number of their stars finding form.

Geelong’s recent record of the Tigers is strong, they’ve won their last three by an average of 33 points all in which have been played at the MCG. In those wins, it’s been Tom Hawkins and Jeremy Cameron who have done damage, the forward duo have kicked 17 goals between them in the wins and one of those wins was without Cameron!

If Tom Lynch was playing, I’d be giving the Tigers a big chance considering the players that are missing for the Cats, but it’s so hard to tip Richmond with any confidence give how their playing.

Tip: Geelong by 27 points.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/05/11/who-will-win-and-why-the-predictions-and-tips-for-round-9-1/

[Francois Jackson]

I give us a chance. More guess work as last week wasnt great.

I think after last year we are going to be up for this one.

[one-eyed]

What a difference a year makes: Cats, Tigers face new-look challenge

Sarah Black
afl.com.au
12 May 2023

GEELONG and Richmond will clash on Friday night in the latest instalment of their fierce rivalry, but it will be two very different midfields than we've seen in the past.

The two clubs have won four of the past six flags between them and faced off in the 2017 qualifying final, the 2019 prelim and the 2020 Grand Final, with the Tigers winning all three contests.

The Cats and Tigers share a curious rivalry, driven by Geelong's dominance over Richmond before their premiership treble (the Cats won 20 of 21 games against the Tigers prior to the 2017 qualifying final), the subsequent finals face-offs, Tom Stewart's late hit on Dion Prestia last year and a passionate dislike between supporter groups.

Throwing back further, Tiger fans of a particular vintage speak of the dominance of Gary Ablett snr with a slightly pained look, with the champion Cat kicking 118 goals at an average of 5.9 against the Tigers, his highest tally against any club.

Currently, the Cats are purring despite their injury issues, but the Tigers are somewhat spluttering and appear to have started their post-flag transition while they've been hit by injuries to key talls.

Driven by injury and recruitment, we take a look at how much have the engine rooms of both clubs have evolved in less than a year, and what the numbers say ahead of Friday night.

New year, new look

Comparing both clubs' midfields from the last time they faced off - round 15, 2022, a nail-biting affair capped off by a winning goal from Jack Henry - with how they lined up last week tells the story of the evolution at both clubs.

Rucks have also been included in the below centre bounce attendance numbers, given the difficulty in separating the ever-versatile Mark Blicavs' ruck and midfield time.

It's also worth noting that former Tigers skipper Trent Cotchin did not play in either of the below two matches, but will return to face the Cats this week.

Richmond Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage, minimum 20
 
                                  Round 15, 2022         Last week

Toby Nankervis                   70                       Injured

Jayden Short                      67                        44

Jack Graham                      63                        0

Jack Ross                           57                        0

Liam Baker                         47                        0

Dustin Martin                      33                      33

Ivan Soldo                          23                    Injured

Shai Bolton                         23                      52

Dion Prestia                        10*                    33

Tim Taranto                     Not on list              67

Jacob Hopper                   Not on list              70

Ben Miller                          DNP                     48

Samson Ryan                     DNP                     52

*subbed off due to concussion


Geelong Centre Bounce Attendance Percentage, minimum 20

                                   Round 15, 2022            Last week

Rhys Stanley                       87                         Injured

Cam Guthrie                       87                          Injured

Patrick Dangerfield             DNP                         52*

Joel Selwood                       80                         Retired

Mark Blicavs                       13                           83

Tom Atkins                         77                           83

Max Holmes                       17                           34

Jonathon Ceglar                DNP                          72

Tanner Bruhn                    Not on list                 59

*subbed off due to injury

Essentially, it will be two entirely different midfields that go head-to-head on Friday night, and both teams have also been running with completely new ruck pairings due to injury.

The Tigers have brought in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper, pushing Jack Ross and Jack Graham to the wing and half-forward respectively, while Shai Bolton played greater midfield time last week against West Coast than he did against Geelong last year.

For the Cats, Tanner Bruhn has crossed from GWS, filling the retired Joel Selwood's spot in the 22, and in the absence of Cam Guthrie and Patrick Dangerfield (second half last week), the explosive Max Holmes and Blicavs have increased their time on the ball.

Brandan Parfitt and debutant Jhye Clark will also face the Tigers this week, adding yet another new dimension to the Cats' side.


What does this mean in terms of raw numbers?

One area Richmond should have the edge on Friday night is contested possessions. The Tigers are sitting fourth overall for contested possessions so far this year, while Geelong is 15th.

Of extra concern for the Cats will be the absence of Dangerfield – clearly their best contested player this year – and the fact key forward Hawkins makes their top five. It's a big tick for the key forward's work in attack, but a little worrying for their midfield depth.

Top total contested possession winners, 2023

Geelong                      Total                   Richmond               Total

Patrick Dangerfield     99 (15th)            Tim Taranto           108 (9th)

Mark Blicavs              68 (55th)            Shai Bolton             76 (37th)

Tom Atkins                67 (60th)            Jacob Hopper          70 (52nd)

Max Holmes              66 (64th)            Dustin Martin          66 (64th)

Tom Hawkins            50 (126th)            Dion Prestia           62 (77th)

When it comes to clearances, though, the numbers are flipped; the Cats are sixth and the Tigers 13th, with this metric a traditional Achilles heel for Damien Hardwick's side.

While Geelong has been a better clearance side than Richmond this year, Dangerfield is out of the equation, while fifth-ranked Guthrie is also sidelined having played six of eight games this year.

Nankervis' impact on Richmond's clearances can't be understated either; he sits fourth overall at the club despite having only played four of eight matches, and will miss again this week.

Top total clearance winners 2023

Geelong                      Total                        Richmond              Total

Patrick Dangerfield     52 (11th)                 Tim Taranto         53 (9th overall)

Tom Atkins                38 (29th)                Jacob Hopper        35 (37th)

Mark Blicavs              35 (37th)                 Shai Bolton          29 (58nd)

Max Holmes               28 (62th)                Toby Nankervis     21 (84th)

Cameron Guthrie        19 (95th)                 Dion Prestia         20 (88th)

Who could break the game open?

For the Tigers, the obvious answers are the former Giants pairing of Taranto and Hopper, while Bolton possesses a spark that few can match. If Dion Prestia is up and running freely, he also provides steel around the contest that can sometimes be lacking.

The young Bruhn had a final 10 minutes to remember against Adelaide last week, but it would be rough to put the weight of an entire game on him. But with the support of Holmes – who the Tigers don't quite have an answer for defensively if he's in top gear – the duo could be dangerous.

And then there's Blicavs. Samson Ryan may have the mobility to run with the star Cat, but at 22, doesn't yet have the strength to physically match the man who's a decade older. He could be the Cats' match-winner, both in the ruck and as a midfielder.

Whatever happens, it's a new-look chapter in the long, long history between these two famous clubs.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/922819/what-a-difference-a-year-makes-geelong-cats-richmond-tigers-face-new-look-challenge

[one-eyed]

THE 4 CERTAINTIES FOR ROUND 9 FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTY

Andrew Slevison
SEN
12 May 2023

Richmond versus Geelong

Prestia and Martin to combine for 40+ disposals and 2+ goals

Dion Prestia found scoring form in a more attacking role against West Coast last week.

He kicked three goals from 23 disposals in a sharp performance, while Dustin Martin also got amongst it with 27 touches and a goal.

The Tigers must beat Geelong tonight to keep their season alive, therefore need two of their better players to stand up.

What’s more, it’s Prestia’s 200th game so he should be primed to really have an impact.

We’re backing Dion and Dusty to combine for at least 40 touches and to kick at least two goals between them under the Friday night lights at the ‘G.

Stewart to have 20+ disposals and take 5+ marks

Tom Stewart has once again been as consistent as they come for Geelong.

After his early-season injury, he has resumed normal transmission and is averaging 24 touches and 8.6 marks since his return in Round 3.

He could be public enemy no.1 with Tigers fans tonight following his bump on Prestia last year, but that won’t stop him from getting a kick.

Stewart will assume acting captain responsibilities from Patrick Dangerfield and we expect him to stand up in his absence.

He is unlikely to have a key matchup so could do as he pleases in defence if the Tigers aren’t clever with their ball movement going forward.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/05/12/the-4-certainties-for-round-9-friday-night-footy/

[one-eyed]

Richmond has more premiership players than Geelong tonight despite their last flag coming three years ago.

15 for the Tigers, 14 for the Cats. Eight of last year’s flag winners out through injury or suspension #AFLTigersCats

https://twitter.com/cleary_mitch/status/1656787625355931649

[one-eyed]

NO LATE CHANGES

SUBSTITUTES
Richmond: Judson Clarke
Geelong: Jhye Clark

https://www.afl.com.au/news/922408/final-teams-in-for-tigers-cats-follow-live-from-7-20pm-aest