Can the Swans beat the Tigers at the MCG on Thursday?The Swans have an imposing record against Richmond, but have been blown off the park in their last two at the MCG.
Alex Donnelly
Code
July 5, 2023RICHMOND TIGERS: $1.68 (via Ladbrokes)
SYDNEY SWANS: $2.25 (via betr)
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING ATSydney has won the first quarter in each of its last nine matches against opponents that were ranked in the bottom four.
Richmond have only won three of nine games at the MCG in 2023.
THE MATCH-UPRound 17 of the AFL kicks off with what’s essentially an elimination final, as both the Tigers and Swans are separated only by percentage on the ladder and both in desperate need of a win to keep slim chances of finals footy afloat.
Richmond were humbled by Brisbane last week to the tune of 81 points, while the Swans played out a thrilling draw against Geelong, a game it absolutely should have won if not for some shambolic goal kicking.
These clubs last met at the Adelaide Oval during Gather Round, seeing Sydney claim a 122-78 victory behind a dominant 46-9 final quarter. Tom Papley was immense during that fixture, kicking a career-best six goals from 25 disposals. His form has tapered off dramatically since then.
That was the third consecutive win for the Swans against Richmond. Sydney also kicked over 100 points in all three games.
RICHMOND BOUNCE BACKLast Thursday night at the Gabba was a horror show for the Tigers; one goal in the first half was just not good enough as Brisbane ran riot.
Tim Taranto – 30+ disposals:Tim Taranto had his first poor game for Richmond, only managing 21 disposals, which was well down on his average of 31 so far this season. In round five against the Swans, however, Taranto had 34 disposals and will be looking to bounce back in a big way.
Shai Bolton – 20+ disposals & 2 + goals:Shai Bolton had a quiet game last weekend, which he is known to do now and then. Prior to that he had kicked 13 goals in eight games, as well as having 20 or more touches in six of those eight games. He is the catalyst for Richmond’s chances on Thursday.
SYDNEY FORGET LAST WEEK AND MOVE ONYes the Swans should have won last week against Geelong, but at least they didn’t lose?
The Swans should head into this weekend full of confidence: the Swans have played better each week since their bye. If that upward trend continues, they should take care of Richmond on Thursday to make it four wins in a row.
Lance Franklin 3+ goals: Lance Franklin returns for what will more than likely be his last game at the MCG (unless the Swans make finals) in what is sure to be an emotional night for the champ, who has averaged three goals at the MCG from 113 games.
Errol Gulden 25+:Errol Gulden is fast becoming a favourite at CODE Bet and on the CODE Bet Daily podcast: he’s taken a big step forward this season and in the last three weeks he has had 27, 32 and 26 disposals along with five goals. Errol has at least one goal in six of his last seven matches.
Braeden Campbell – 15+ disposals:
Angus Sheldrick – 20+ disposals:Two young and unheralded players in the Swans midfield ranks are Braeden Campbell and Angus Sheldrick, both were fantastic against Geelong. Campbell kicked two important goals and now after 40 games of AFL footy looks set to take the next step.
The same goes for Angus Sheldrck who has had 69 possessions in the last three games to go along with three goals.
PAPLEY TO FIRE UPTom Papley – 15+ disposals & 2+ goals:It feels weird to say that Tom Papley is not in great form at the moment despite kicking at least one goal in 14 of 15 games this season, with a total of 25 for the year.
He did kick six of those 25 against Richmond in round five and hasn’t kicked more than two goals in a game since.
But in eight games against Richmond Papley has 16 goals at a perfect two a game, as well as averaging 15 disposals a game. If he has 15 and two on Thursday the Swans will likely win.
THE PICKWith those three straight wins over Richmond, the Swans clearly have had the wood over Richmond in recent years. Despite three straight losses at the MCG for Sydney, the Swans should be slightly too good for the undermanned Tigers.
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