The ball magnet, Bont-like gun and star with Dusty-like traits: Breaking down open Pick 1 raceBen Waterworth
Fox Sports
October 9th, 2024 The Pick 1 race seems as open as it has been for years.
That’s not the race among clubs to get their hands on this year’s prized draft selection – which is what happened in 2023 when North Melbourne, Melbourne and Hawthorn all made a play for Pick 1, only for West Coast to hold its position and ultimately take Harley Reid, who was widely viewed as the best player in the draft.
This year it’s a different scenario, for Richmond is taking Pick 1 to the draft, but which draftee the Tigers select – in one of the deepest draft classes for years – remains a mystery.
Considering the number of trade balls up in the air for Richmond before next week’s exchange period deadline, it’s unlikely the club has made a definitive No. 1 pick call yet.
But rival clubs spoken to by foxfooty.com.au believe there are three main players in the Tigers’ sights: Sam Lalor, Finn O’Sullivan and Jagga Smith.
POWERFUL STAR WITH DUSTY-LIKE TRAITSRichmond just bid farewell to the legendary Dustin Martin – a powerful, explosive midfielder-forward who dazzled fans for over a decade wearing the No. 4.
By the end of next month, the Tigers could draft another powerful, explosive midfielder-forward who’s dazzled recruiters for several years in the No. 4 for the GWV Rebels … and looked up to Martin during his junior career.
Lalor (186cm) compares himself to Martin and Collingwood’s Jordan De Goey as a powerful mid with a penetrating kick who impacts games forward of centre due to his one-on-one strength and ability to hit the scoreboard.
Sam Lalor is a Dusty fan! Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesThe 18-year-old was hampered by foot, quad and hip issues at the start of this season. But he returned to the field in the middle of the year with a bang, booting a lazy 7.3 for Geelong Grammar in a school game. He then kicked 3.1 from 16 touches and three clearances in an eye-catching display for Vic Country against the Allies, before clunking two telling marks against Vic Metro in the carnival final.
While Lalor has always been in the top-10 mix, his strong showing in the back-end of the year and enormous potential at AFL level now have him at the pointy end of the 2024 pool – to the point where rival clubs believe the Tigers, at this stage, are leaning towards taking him with their first pick.
Speaking with foxfooty.com.au’s Dylan Bolch at the recent national draft combine, Lalor said he’d have no issues dealing with the pressure of being taken with Pick 1.
“I think everyone wants to go as high as they can. I’d love to go Pick 1 but I’m not looking forward too much, I’ll just see what happens draft night,” Lalor told foxfooty.com.au.
“I think I’d be fine (with the Pick 1 pressure). I probably wouldn’t look into the media or anything too much. I’d just chip away at it and focus on myself, especially for the first year.”
WELL-ROUNDED MID… WITH BONT-LIKE TRAITSWhile the Tigers, like all 18 AFL clubs, have tracked Lalor closely from afar, they got a first-hand look at O’Sullivan midway through the year.
O’Sullivan in August represented the Tigers in the VFL for one game against the Sandringham Zebras. He finished with 12 disposals, but crucially six of them led to Richmond scores – including two goals of his own.
After a somewhat slow start to the game, O’Sullivan warmed into the contest, with scouts noting he didn’t look out of place against state league opposition.
O’Sullivan (181cm) entered his draft year as arguably the top-ranked – and most well-rounded – player in the pool, only for a luckless injury run – he fractured his thumb in his first Talent League game then hurt his finger playing for the AFL Academy – to halt his momentum.
But his VFL performance reminded on-lookers of his undeniable on-field class, to go with his explosive ball-winning capabilities. He’s not a big accumulator of the footy, but recruiters love his ability to change a game without having mass disposals.
Finn O'Sullivan of the AFL Academy. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty ImagesO’Sullivan finished off his 2024 campaign with two impressive Coates Talent League outings for the Oakleigh Chargers. He kicked 3.2 from 18 disposals against Sandringham then starred against the GWV Rebels in a losing preliminary final, booting 2.1 from 20 disposals, eight marks, eight inside 50s and five tackles.
Both Jack and Matt Whitlock, who played alongside O’Sullivan for Vic Country this year, believe he’s the best player in it.
“He probably hasn’t had the year he’s wanted, but I reckon in about four or five years’ time, you’ll be looking at Finn O’Sullivan as the next (Marcus) Bontempelli,” Matt Whitlock told foxfooty.com.au.
“He has that capability, that winning nature. In Under 16s when I played with him, you just saw some things that you don’t see in many.”
Jack Whitlock added: “His talent is just through the roof. Obviously he hasn’t had the run of games that he probably would’ve liked this year, but he’s definitely my No. 1 pick.”
THE BALL MAGNET WHO BARELY PLAYS A BAD GAMEAnd then there’s Jagga, who’s arguably had the most impressive and consistent year of any player in the open draft pool.
A 181cm ball magnet with a sickeningly good work ethic and impressive inside-outside balance, Smith finished runner-up in the Larke Medal and was named captain of the All-Australian team after an outstanding national carnival for Vic Metro. He averaged more disposals (29.2), contested possessions (13.
and clearances (6.
than any other player.
That all came after some bonkers performances for the Chargers, accumulating 33, 33, 50 (yes 50) and 40 disposals across four consecutive matches.
Then when he returned to Coates Talent League level for the final stretch of his season, he kicked at least one goal and averaged 32.6 disposals across five consecutive games.
But Smith’s prospects were significantly enhanced under Richmond’s nose when he played three games for the Tigers’ VFL team.
On VFL debut in tough conditions against Williamstown, Smith racked up a game-high 31 disposals, 18 contested possessions, eight clearances, eight intercepts and five marks as he showed off his full workrate. He backed it up over the next two weeks, finishing with 27 and 24 disposals respectively against Collingwood and Sandringham.
Jagga Smith of Victoria Metro. Picture: Paul Kane/AFL Photos/via Getty ImagesThere are other midfielders near the top of the draft pool who have bigger frames than Smith. But his ability to win the ball in-tight consistently against bigger, mature bodies – and win a lot of it – only verified why many consider him a strong Pick 1 chance in such an even draft class.
Asked why a club should be willing to invest an early pick in him, Smith told foxfooty.com.au at the draft combine: “I think the main thing with me is I’ll get the best out of myself. I’m really driven and really want to be successful.
“I had a pretty consistent year footy-wise. I think my output didn’t waver from my worst to my best. That’s the thing that I always try to do is make that gap between my best footy and worst pretty small.”
Smith said he models his game on Port Adelaide superstar Zak Butters.
“I model my game around my ability to get from contest to contest and be agile and make smart decisions with the ball in hand,” Smith said.
“He (Butters) is similar in stature to me and the way he attacks the footy, he’s dynamic with ball in-hand and he’s pretty polished with his kicking as well.”
AND A NOTE ON RICHMOND’S DRAFT HAND AND STRATEGYAs pointed out by St Kilda champion Leigh Montagna on Fox Footy’s Trading Day on Tuesday night, the Tigers could have one of the juiciest top-end draft hands since the Suns and Giants entered the AFL in the early 2010s.
At the time of writing, the Tigers hold Pick 1, followed by a suite of later selections: Picks 24, 32, 42, 43, 45, 51, 61 and 70.
But should Richmond ultimately strike deals for all their wantaway players – Daniel Rioli (Gold Coast), Liam Baker (West Coast) and Shai Bolton (Fremantle) – plus use those later selections to finalise a trade with Brisbane for the premiers’ No. 20 selection, the Tigers’ best-case draft haul could look like this: Picks 1, 6, 10, 14, 18, 20, 23 and 24.
It would then put the Tigers in a strong position to bundle and trade up, considering North Melbourne (Pick 2) and West Coast (Pick 3) are both open to moving down the order.
Alternatively, the Tigers could move some of their 2024 selections to next year to spread the foundation of their rebuild across two drafts. Although the 2025 draft has a strong father-son, northern academy and NGA flavour to it.
“It’s a great opportunity for the Tigers,” Montagna told Trading Day. “What it does is it gives them some real leverage at draft night, because we know live-trading is becoming really important and there are going to be clubs on draft night that are going to come clamouring for some of these first-round picks.
“We know they all want to get an extra pick in this year’s draft; it means Richmond can sit back, and depending on what they’ve already drafted and the hand they’ve got, they might be able to secure some future (capital) on top of what they’ve got.”
Rival clubs expect the Tigers to be strategic with their early picks this year. For instance if they take a pure midfielder in Jagga Smith with Pick 1, it’s expected they’d opt for different profiles with their next picks. Think big-bodied midfielders Harvey Langford and Josh Smillie, or small forward Joe Berry, or key-position players like Alix Tauru or Harry Armstrong.
Either way, it’s a pretty position for Richmond to be in.
https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/draft/afl-draft-2024-richmond-pick-1-contenders-include-sam-lalor-finn-osullivan-jagga-smith-vfl-rankings-predictions/news-story/607d578b38849b9370ac4ce56c8afa14
