The 3 Trades: Best Case vs Worst Case

[TigerLand]

With the 3 boys wanting out. What do you think realistically are our book ends for them with likely trades, what's best and worst case scenario.

Here is my thoughts

Daniel Rioli: GC have form in throwing away picks. Jack Bowes and Pick 7 for a salary dumb. Id they don't offer Pick 6 I'd be offended. We may hold out for Pick 15 as well. With possibly sending a later pick or two to help them with points for Lombard. I expect Pick 6 minimum, best case Pick 6 and 15 for Rioli and late picks.

Liam Baker: I feel like his currency isn't as high as what it should be. Our Vice Captain, probably next captain really as there is nobody else. Id say Ports Pick which is tied to Freo is what is likely. I can't see him going to West Coast for Pick 3. I don't mind the idea of trading Baker and a pick for Pick 3, but I'm not letting that pick go if I'm WCE. The only way it happens is if they highlight getting Allen at Pick 9 or 10. And ask for that pick with Baker for Pick 3. So best case Pick 3 for Baker and a high pick, worst case I think Freo or WCE offer either Ports first rounder or WCE 2nd pick which is what pick 23.

Shai Bolton: Best Case is Pick 9 and 10. Worst Case is just 1 of those picks and a future first. Have read a bit about Bolton being highly overrated by us and we will end up not trading cause we overate him. I wouldn't trade for anything less than 2 firsts. Pick 9 this year and a first rounder next year isn't a great trade and with 4 years contracted we shouldn't accept that. I can't see Freo not getting this deal done after the year they've had, they need a Bolton type. Screaming out for it. I can see us paying a large % and getting overs with picks.

What are deals we accept for each and what are deals we say no to?

[Andyy]

Baker to WCE for 12 (assuming they get 12 from Hawks for Barrass). Alternatively if they are interested in keeping 12 we could try Baker + 15 for 3 which is my preference.

Bolton for 9+10, we can pay plenty of his salary with Dusty also going we can afford it.

Rioli + trash picks for 6+15 so they have currency for Lombard.

Hit the draft with 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 21.

Might even be room to trade more picks if Graham yields compo to Blues who need points for Camp twins.

[tdy]

Wow that's an amazing dream draft 5 picks in the top 10. If and this is a big if we don't stuff it it would be our next premiership side drafted there and then.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

Would like 2 of those top 10’s (late) and the 21 traded for first rounders next year.
Getting a spread of 4 - 5 top 20 picks across both years is a better hedge

We might also be able to package up our series of 30’s and 40’s picks to get pick 12 instead of pick 20 from Goldie.
Say, for instance Picks 22,35,39 for Goldie first pick (pick 12) they need points for academy pick 40% premium on pick 12. Win:Win

[PremiershipClock]

Would like 2 of those top 10’s (late) and the 21 traded for first rounders next year.
Getting a spread of 4 - 5 top 20 picks across both years is a better hedge

We might also be able to package up our series of 30’s and 40’s picks to get pick 12 instead of pick 20 from Goldie.
Say, for instance Picks 22,35,39 for Goldie first pick (pick 12) they need points for academy pick 40% premium on pick 12. Win:Win

Thank God it's not 2020 - worst draft of all time due to coviod - best player (apart for JUH) was no 32.

Those that know say this is the deepest draft for a decade - Thank Faark

[MintOnLamb]

Baker to WCE for 12 (assuming they get 12 from Hawks for Barrass). Alternatively if they are interested in keeping 12 we could try Baker + 15 for 3 which is my preference.

Bolton for 9+10, we can pay plenty of his salary with Dusty also going we can afford it.

Rioli + trash picks for 6+15 so they have currency for Lombard.

Hit the draft with 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 21.

Might even be room to trade more picks if Graham yields compo to Blues who need points for Camp twins.

Wow, amazing, So have any of the new expansion teams or any teams for that matter, ever had a range of picks like that?

[Andyy]

Baker to WCE for 12 (assuming they get 12 from Hawks for Barrass). Alternatively if they are interested in keeping 12 we could try Baker + 15 for 3 which is my preference.

Bolton for 9+10, we can pay plenty of his salary with Dusty also going we can afford it.

Rioli + trash picks for 6+15 so they have currency for Lombard.

Hit the draft with 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 21.

Might even be room to trade more picks if Graham yields compo to Blues who need points for Camp twins.

Wow, amazing, So have any of the new expansion teams or any teams for that matter, ever had a range of picks like that?

Yeah both GCS and GWS had better hands than that if you look back historically.

2010
GCS picks 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 39, 49

2011
GWS picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 56, 79, 87

As well as other concessions and access etc.

[MintOnLamb]

Baker to WCE for 12 (assuming they get 12 from Hawks for Barrass). Alternatively if they are interested in keeping 12 we could try Baker + 15 for 3 which is my preference.

Bolton for 9+10, we can pay plenty of his salary with Dusty also going we can afford it.

Rioli + trash picks for 6+15 so they have currency for Lombard.

Hit the draft with 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 21.

Might even be room to trade more picks if Graham yields compo to Blues who need points for Camp twins.

Wow, amazing, So have any of the new expansion teams or any teams for that matter, ever had a range of picks like that?

Yeah both GCS and GWS had better hands than that if you look back historically.

2010
GCS picks 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 39, 49

2011
GWS picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 56, 79, 87

As well as other concessions and access etc.

Thanks Andyy, nice research, probably shows what is going to happen when the Tassie Devils come in, also shows that you don’t win a flag with top picks and club culture and experience goes a long way

[Andyy]

Baker to WCE for 12 (assuming they get 12 from Hawks for Barrass). Alternatively if they are interested in keeping 12 we could try Baker + 15 for 3 which is my preference.

Bolton for 9+10, we can pay plenty of his salary with Dusty also going we can afford it.

Rioli + trash picks for 6+15 so they have currency for Lombard.

Hit the draft with 1, 3, 6, 9, 10, 21.

Might even be room to trade more picks if Graham yields compo to Blues who need points for Camp twins.

Wow, amazing, So have any of the new expansion teams or any teams for that matter, ever had a range of picks like that?

Yeah both GCS and GWS had better hands than that if you look back historically.

2010
GCS picks 1, 2, 3, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 39, 49

2011
GWS picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 11, 13, 14, 56, 79, 87

As well as other concessions and access etc.

Thanks Andyy, nice research, probably shows what is going to happen when the Tassie Devils come in, also shows that you don’t win a flag with top picks and club culture and experience goes a long way

Well I think there was never a market for those two clubs unlike Tas.

GWS has at least made a GF but agreed, you need culture and leadership.

[WilliamPowell]

TBH, to start negotiations I'd be pushing hard not pay any of Bolton's salary.

IMHO it is up to Freo to come up with a deal that suits the RFC. We tell them what we want and it's up to them to facilitate.

Granted as time goes on you'd compromise but to begin with we have to play hardball...

These 3 blokes want out now that we are struggling, we hold the aces for at least 2 of them. Other Clubs need to appease us

[Siberian]

TBH, to start negotiations I'd be pushing hard not pay any of Bolton's salary.

IMHO it is up to Freo to come up with a deal that suits the RFC. We tell them what we want and it's up to them to facilitate.

Granted as time goes on you'd compromise but to begin with we have to play hardball...

These 3 blokes want out now that we are struggling, we hold the aces for at least 2 of them. Other Clubs need to appease us

True but given the state of our list I would sacrifice the wage part for better picks

[Andyy]

TBH, to start negotiations I'd be pushing hard not pay any of Bolton's salary.

IMHO it is up to Freo to come up with a deal that suits the RFC. We tell them what we want and it's up to them to facilitate.

Granted as time goes on you'd compromise but to begin with we have to play hardball...

These 3 blokes want out now that we are struggling, we hold the aces for at least 2 of them. Other Clubs need to appease us

True but given the state of our list I would sacrifice the wage part for better picks

100%

Lynch OOC next year, just freed up Dusty's money too. Pickett & Grimes retired.

We have cash to play with. Should look at what Geelong accomplished with Bowes, taking him + P7 in a salary dump. That's what we should be doing now.

[Tiger Khosh]

TBH, to start negotiations I'd be pushing hard not pay any of Bolton's salary.

IMHO it is up to Freo to come up with a deal that suits the RFC. We tell them what we want and it's up to them to facilitate.

Granted as time goes on you'd compromise but to begin with we have to play hardball...

These 3 blokes want out now that we are struggling, we hold the aces for at least 2 of them. Other Clubs need to appease us

True but given the state of our list I would sacrifice the wage part for better picks

100%

Lynch OOC next year, just freed up Dusty's money too. Pickett & Grimes retired.

We have cash to play with. Should look at what Geelong accomplished with Bowes, taking him + P7 in a salary dump. That's what we should be doing now.

Yeah I’ve softened my stance on this. I still hate the idea of paying someone when they’re not even playing for your. However, look at our list, after the wantaways leave how are we actually going to pay the minimum 95% (or whatever it is) of the cap with our list unless we are paying some of bolts and riolis salaries? You could maybe restructure the contracts of the guys that are left so that they are heavily front loaded, but honestly there aren’t too many left where you’d be certain that they’d still be with us in 4-5 years time let alone still playing AFL.

[Andyy]

TBH, to start negotiations I'd be pushing hard not pay any of Bolton's salary.

IMHO it is up to Freo to come up with a deal that suits the RFC. We tell them what we want and it's up to them to facilitate.

Granted as time goes on you'd compromise but to begin with we have to play hardball...

These 3 blokes want out now that we are struggling, we hold the aces for at least 2 of them. Other Clubs need to appease us

True but given the state of our list I would sacrifice the wage part for better picks

100%

Lynch OOC next year, just freed up Dusty's money too. Pickett & Grimes retired.

We have cash to play with. Should look at what Geelong accomplished with Bowes, taking him + P7 in a salary dump. That's what we should be doing now.

Yeah I’ve softened my stance on this. I still hate the idea of paying someone when they’re not even playing for your. However, look at our list, after the wantaways leave how are we actually going to pay the minimum 95% (or whatever it is) of the cap with our list unless we are paying some of bolts and riolis salaries? You could maybe restructure the contracts of the guys that are left so that they are heavily front loaded, but honestly there aren’t too many left where you’d be certain that they’d still be with us in 4-5 years time let alone still playing AFL.

Yeah, particularly players on decent coin. Hopper, Taranto, Vlastuin, Short...they could be front-loaded more maybe.

Who's left? Lol

Everyone else should be retiring in 1-3 years or just started to hit their straps maybe?

[Tiger Khosh]

Balta would be the only one your missing I rekn. He’s got to resign first as he’s out of contract at the end of next year but provided he does I would front load that contract as much as humanely possible.