Going by the VEC it'll end up either the Libs ahead 45-43 or a hung parliament 44-split. It wouldn't be 2010 without another draw. No independents this time either to play kingmaker. We could be back to the polls
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The seat of Bentleigh is now the crucial seat. Labor is trailing by 213 votes two-party preferred yet must hold onto the seat otherwise it's game over. Probably roughly 8000 pre-polls and postals still be counted. Eltham and Ballarat East are also close but Labor leads in both of them.
ALP - 41
Lib/Nat - 44
In doubt: 3
Bentleigh - Lib ahead 213 (2-PP, 75% counted)
Eltham - ALP ahead 225
Ballarat East - ALP ahead 388
Right along the Frankston railway line and mid-outer Eastern suburbs turned on Labor. To me that says transport was the main issue this election given those areas cover the two busiest lines - Frankston and Ringwood.
In the past, controlling all of the leafy eastern suburban seats would have handed the Libs government with a large majority but the growth over the past decade in outer western, northern and south-eastern Melbourne plus the larger urban regional cities (which stuck with Labor despite a swing against) has kept the final result tight.