Tuesday Debate with Mark Stevens
15 May 2007 Herald-Sun
Mark Stevens
ON MY SOAPBOX: What's worse than finishing last? Finishing last and watching your oldest enemy take the prized No. 1 draft pick, Mark Stevens writes.Yes, that could be you, Richmond fans. If you're close to the brink of despair after seven straight losses, it may be too painful to read on.
The Tigers could claim the wooden spoon -- winning one, two, even zero games -- and still be beaten to the punch on draft day by Carlton.
Under priority-pick rules, the Blues get the No. 1 choice in 2007 if they win four, or fewer, games -- regardless of how bad the Tigers are.
The criteria is simple: if you win four games or fewer in successive years you are entitled to a prized priority pick before the first round.
Carlton won 3 1/2 games last year. That's one box ticked.
If the Blues, now 2-5, win no more than two games in their last 15, the No. 1 pick comes gift-wrapped.
It could be the first time in draft history that the bottom team hasn't been handed the first pick.
Winning a wooden spoon is bad enough. Imagine the pain if the Tigers finish behind Carlton, only to cop it in the backside with a nasty, jagged splinter as well.
Under the nightmare scenario for Richmond, the Blues would get their hands on picks No. 1 and No. 3 if they finished second last.
The Tigers, if they finish last, would get No. 2 and then a priority pick (No. 18) at the end of the first round.
Essendon, too, could get its mitts on a priority pick before the first round if it wins fewer than four.
Remember the Bombers, like Carlton, only won 3 1/2 last year.
But Essendon is not that bad. It won't happen.
The season is only a third of the way through, agreed. Carlton might surge; the Tigers may claw their way out of the depths.
But it is worth thinking about -- and the possible ramifications of the priority rules have been largely forgotten.
If the losing run of the young Blues continues, it will raise unprecedented speculation about the worth of playing kids and tanking.
Imagine if the Blues continue to fight hard, but still find themselves at 3-10 and then, say, 4-13.
The temptation could be huge for the Blues to select development teams and ensure they win no more than four.
Denis Pagan is a win-at-all-costs coach, but it may just be the chance for the Blues to top up with two more prime kids and have a real tilt in 2008.
And it would be an opportunity to make up for the pain of losing those early choices in 2002.
Why win five or six games? Really, it's a waste of time.
If you can't get eight to 10 wins, take the four. It would be much better for Carlton long-term.
The Blues are playing exciting footy and clearly heading in the right direction, but don't have the experience or clout to challenge for the eight -- particularly with Nick Stevens out for the year.
Make no mistake, the cries of "tank it" will come loudly if the Blues still have four or fewer wins in the bank a month out from the end of the season.
That would be horrible for the game. The AFL's rule change, taking away an automatic early priority pick for winning five or fewer matches in a single season, was a step in the right direction.
But they should go further. From 2008, all priorities should be taken only after the first round.
It would be cruel, painfully cruel, if the Tigers cop the spoon and miss pick No. 1.
http://www.heraldsun.news.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,21731518%255E19742,00.html
