GC17, West Sydney - Need to go for top kids in next 2 drafts or we won't get any

[Stripes]

Many teams will find themselves in a situation eventually similiar to our own where they have devoid of midage or 'premiership age' players with the majority of their list sitting at either extreme.

We should actually find ourselves at an advantage at this stage with such a large percentage of our current list below 23 years of age which (if I am getting my calculations right here) by 2012 most of our list sitting in the mid-age bracket and be ready to start investing in the youth without completely rebuilding.

I think, if things go to plan, this could even strengthen our opportunities to challenge while the more power teams at the moment could struggle to replace their aging stars...

We can all dream can't we 

Stripes

[Ramps]

2008 is last chance Manilla for all the clubs. At Richmond we need to make some very tough decisions. Which one of us would agree to trading say a Chris Newman. Its easy to say get rid of Tivendale and Hyde and Tuck but they wont get us anything. Bowden at 30 wont draw much attention. I say if we lose the next 2 weeks we just stuffen tank and get Natanui and Hurley or Natanui and Rich and stuff everyone else. This is Richmond. We owe no one nothing. Lets get a flag for the supporters and lets rort the system because this is the last chance for all.

[tigersalive]

2008 is last chance Manilla for all the clubs. At Richmond we need to make some very tough decisions. Which one of us would agree to trading say a Chris Newman. Its easy to say get rid of Tivendale and Hyde and Tuck but they wont get us anything. Bowden at 30 wont draw much attention. I say if we lose the next 2 weeks we just effen tank and get Natanui and Hurley or Natanui and Rich and stuff everyone else. This is Richmond. We owe no one nothing. Lets get a flag for the supporters and lets rort the system because this is the last chance for all.

The problem is after these two games we play some absolutely average teams, i.e. Carlton, Melbourne, Essendon.  And I cant see us losing to them and if we try to tank the rest we'll still end up about 11th and without Natanui, Rich or Hurley.

Then after that it becomes a lottery anyway as to picking the right player.

AKA, Dont do it.  Play for finals.

[bluey_21]

Demetriou really does want to screw the competition over

[mightytiges]

If the Gold Coast team is unable to either persuade those teenagers to sign with them in 2009, it will be able to draft many of them the following year, when it holds picks 1-5, 14, 15, 24 and 41.

Picks 1-5: Gold Coast
Picks 6-13: Bottom 8 sides (if no priority pick)
Picks 14-15: Gold Coast
Picks 16-23: Top 8 sides
Pick 24: Gold Coast

Sheesh if that was the 2004 draft the Gold Coast would have got Lids, Roughead, Griffen, Blingers and Buddy  .

If you finish mid-ladder in 2010-11 you are stuffed. Just 1 pick in the top 30  .

[bluey_21]

I don't see how other teams are going to support the AFL on this 

[mightytiges]

I don't see how other teams are going to support the AFL on this 

More $$$ of course.

The tv rights are up for renewal in 2012 and with 18 clubs and 9 games per week the stations will have to cop up even more $$$. Most likely around $1 billion. You probably can add another $100 million from the internet/mobile rights.

[rogerd3]

well lets hope Craig is on top of it from the get go.

[bluey_21]

I don't see how other teams are going to support the AFL on this 

More $$$ of course.

The tv rights are up for renewal in 2012 and with 18 clubs and 9 games per week the stations will have to cop up even more $$$. Most likely around $1 billion. You probably can add another $100 million from the internet/mobile rights.

Aaaahhhh, right. The thing that makes the world keep spinning

[one-eyed]

Tigers' 'major' draft concerns
Jake Niall | The Age | May 2, 2008

RICHMOND has voiced "major concerns" about the impact of Gold Coast draft concessions on some clubs, saying it could create an English Premier League scenario in which few teams can win the premiership over a period of years.

And, as other clubs begin to digest the significance of the proposal to create a new Gold Coast team from scratch, North Melbourne has suggested to the AFL that the current version of concessions might need to be "softened" to give more clubs a chance.

While many clubs are still assessing the proposed recruiting rules for creating first a Gold Coast (in 2011) and then a Western Sydney club, many clubs believe there will be winners and losers from the expansion of the competition, with Hawthorn tipped to be among the clubs most advantaged by the expansion.

Many clubs believe the Hawks will benefit from the expansion because they have a very strong, young playing list that should peak at the time when rivals have little access to the draft picks that can bridge the gap.

Melbourne said the formula for the new clubs "should not disadvantage clubs that need assistance" via the draft.

Some clubs privately expressed concern about the proposed recruiting rules, under which the Gold Coast would be given picks 1-5, 14, 15 and 24 in 2010, plus access to 10 uncontracted players from other clubs. The new club would have already been allowed to sign 10 elite 17-year-olds at the end of 2009 — players who were not eligible for the 2009 draft who would be warehoused for a year.

Western Sydney would be given almost identical concessions the following year, and over a two-year period, under the current proposal.

The AFL has presented two models to the clubs — one in which the Gold Coast comes into the competition in 2011, then Western Sydney in 2012; in the unlikely second option, both clubs enter the competition simultaneously, in 2011.

But the clubs that have been briefed by the AFL on the proposal also were pleased that the AFL had shown it was willing to listen to their concerns, and to seek input and suggestions about how this revolutionary expansion might be best handled for all parties.

Richmond president Gary March said the club had "major concerns" about clubs that had no access to drafts being consigned to the bottom, while a small number were in contention.

"For us, we're concerned but maybe not as concerned as maybe some other clubs would have been because we've had the chance to rebuild our list over the last four years and stay true to it," March said.

"I'd have major concerns. What I'd have major concerns on is that … basically it means a five-to-10-year period, certain clubs, because of having no access to drafts, may be down the bottom for an extended period of time for no fault of their own. And that compromises the competition, and that's the last thing we want to see is a compromised competition.

"If you compromise that too much, you get a situation like in the Premier League where only three sides can ever win it. How boring is that competition?"

Richmond discussed the impact of the draft concessions at its most recent board meeting.

North Melbourne praised the AFL's "interactive" approach to the Gold Coast expansion, while suggesting to the league that the recruiting concessions would have to be "softened" in the interests of all clubs. "On the models that have been presented, one would think there has to be some softening," said North Melbourne chief executive Eugene Arocca. "And we're confident that the process the AFL's embarking on (will deliver)."

Melbourne football operations manager Chris Connolly said last night: "From a Melbourne point of view, there needs to be formula … that does not disadvantage clubs that need assistance at that period of time in their footy lives."

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/tigers-major-draft-concerns/2008/05/01/1209235058760.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

[Smokey]

Can't see people supporting a Gold Coast team that doesn't play on the Gold Coast.  That's why the Titans are so popular - because they have their own ground on the Coast.

Exactly Julz.  Thats why Nth won't come up here and won't succeed if they do.  And thats why Brisbane did no good until they moved to the Gabba.  I was involved with footy up here at the time (playing and coaching) and it wasn't until the team moved to Brisbane that they were adopted as their 'own' and the crowds followed.  Any chance Nth had has gone, the goodwill evaporated and the only chance of success up here is to 'grow your own'.

[Ramps]

My analysis of where each side is at considering the draft concessions coming up. Based on current ladder order.

Geelong

Geelong built up a great side over the past 6 or 7 years, reigning premiers, will be heavily in the action over the next 3 and could win the whole box and dice again shortly, the draft concessions dished out to GC and WS will mean that if they are sensible, they should play finals for almost a decade as other clubs struggle to lift.

Summary- Contender : Current and in 5 years

Hawthorn

Clarksons done a brilliant job, but he has a problem, that problem is called Geelong. Geelong may do to Hawthorn what Hawthorn were doing to Geelong a decade ago. Hawthorn has a good young list, they have good talls, but there midfield for mine lacks the explosiveness to beat Geelong on a like for like Basis. Going forward they will also have to replace Crawford and maybe 1 or 2 others who are very handy. The defence also lacks class.
They will be around the place for next 5 years but may come up empty. The midfield and defence needs work.

Summary- Contender : Current and in 5 years


Western Bulldogs

Could be stranded in no mans land shortly, wont win a flag with Geelong and Hawthorn around the place as things stand. West, Johnson and several others will be leaving the game over the next 2 or 3 years, there midfield whilst having a great base with Griffen and Cooney will need to get better, question marks over the forward line still exist. For mine they wont win a flag, they will lose players and fall backwards before trying to rebuild. The concessions for GC and WS will hurt the dogs as they try and replace aging stars.

Contender Now: Falling backwards by 2012

Adelaide 

A strong club that has a knack of being able to really develop players, they wont win a flag this year or next and high finishes will hurt them draft wise. Adelaide could pinch a flag, but I cant see it, if they didnt have the development record they have, then thered be major concerns, they will probably continue to play finals footy for a fair while but winning the ultimate prize at the moment seems far away in reality.

Contender Now: History shows they will be competitive in 5 years

Sydney

Dont like how they play footy, they are consistent finals performers, who should stay competitive but I see them a bit like Adelaide and afew others, they will there and there abouts but I dont think they will win a flag in the current environment, finishing high now will hurt them draft wise, they could fall backwards during the draft drought, with Sydney its to tough to tell but I know this, they're not developing enough youth to be big contenders for the after Geelong/Hawthorn period.

Average Now, Will not be contending in 5 years

North Melbourne

A very consistent club, they have tried to rebuild there key position stocks but they will to draft brilliantly to get into major contention. They should stay competitive for now, but I expect that they will be stranded mid table when the draft drought happens.  They havent built enough quality youth and blokes like Lachlan Hansen seem to have gone missing.

Average Now, will not be contending in 5 years

Collingwood 6 3 3 0 119.7 12

They think Money is the be all and end all. At the end of 2008 it will have been 1 flag in 50 years. They have a great coach, some quality youngsters, but there continual high finishes will see them being punished down the track. They needed to secure early picks this year to drive through to compete with Geelong and Hawthorn over the next few years. I cant see how Collingwood can win a flag with the list they have and how it all pans out over the next 3 or 4 years.

Average now, probably just a finals side in 2012 at best

Brisbane

Leigh Matthews has got this side back up and running, I expect Brisbane will play finals and they will get another shot at it down the line. They have some fine young players, but Brown has injuries, Black and co. are getting on- if the midfield stays together over 3 or 4years they will be there and there abouts.

Developing side, probably still a finals side around 2012

St. Kilda

Gone. The window has closed. Will go backwards before going forwards. Dont like how they play. With draft concessions coming to new clubs the Saints are gone in premiership terms. Harvey will be leaving soon as well, Hughton and maybe afew others.

Cant see a flag for the saints. Not now and not in 5

Richmond

Has tried to rebuild since 2004, some players developing well. The major positive is the club has 15 to 20 players in an age group coming through together. Midfield coming along really well. Cotchin still to come, Defence KPP seem set with Moore developing at FB and Thursty on a 3rd defender. Rance has hope. Forwardline needs work. One KPP short NOW. Richardson retiring will be hard to replace. Low finish in 2008 will propel the club towards better times 4 years from now when the Geelong/Hawthorn time has come and gone. We may come good as other clubs start coming back to the field. Richmond needs to find a ruckman 200cm+. A key position forward and 2 midfielders who are both inside and outside. If we do that we will be right in the van down the track. A tanking 2008 will see us get half of or maybe 3/4 of what we need.

Average now, possible contender in 2012

Carlton

Should  be one of our major competitors in 2011 and 2012, A fine midfield, developing forward line. They lack KPP in defence low finish in 2008 will give them access to decent talent again. Fevola will be 31/32 when they come good, that may be a problem for them. Anyway the blues should be an improver with lots of young talent coming along.

Average now possible contender in 2012

Port Adelaide 

With Tredrea and afew others getting on Port may struggle down the track. A mid table 2008 finish wont help them. I think they will be middle of the road for a fair while, but they do have some very nice players like Boak.

Cant see a flag now or in the next 5

Essendon

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA ... I shouldnt laugh. Maybe sheedys last draft where he picked up about 8 blokes will help them. Ryder is a good player, but theyre not as good as they think they are, and if they draft badly in 2008 they will be gone for a fair while. They have to many holes to fill as is.

Not a contender now, cant see them being one in 5 years

Fremantle

Basketcase, they have no hope, but they may get good picks this year. The reality is they traded picks for players and that will hurt them in 2010 onwards. I dont expect Freo to fire anytime soon. They just dont have enough quality young kids coming through.

No

West Coast

Have worked the system beautifully. Seem set to get good picks in a good year. If they trade Kerr they will secure more picks and more young talent. I expect to see them deep in the action 4 years from now.

Average now, will be good in 2012. A contender down the track.

Melbourne

Started to rebuild to late. We wont be seeing them playing for the big prize anytime soon. Infact Id be surprised to see them do anything this side of 2020. No KPPs, slow, some older players. Its a bad time for the demons.

No

[mightytiges]

Nice analysis and summary Ramps  .

Sydney and Brisbane will also be hurt by the new teams having first access to their respective state youngsters.

Geelong's test is going to be in 2012 and beyond. Can today's kittens replace Milburn, Harley, Mooney, Scarlett, Ottens, Wojcinski and Ling who'll all be in their eaerly 30s and possible retiredby then. Corey, Enright and Chapman are 26 going on 27 this year so they'll be hitting their 30s too in 4 years time.

Hawthorn are well set as you say Ramps. Only Crawf, Dew, Croad and Bateman are over 25 and of course Buddy and Roughead have just turned 21 so they have a decade ahead of them. A true tall KP defender and an explosive midfielder or two is what separates them from the ultimate prize IMO. They're ready to go now with 16 of their current best 22 peaking in that prime 22-27 age bracket.

As for us we've almost replaced basically the whole team over the past 4 years with U23-24s with the exception of Richo, Browny and Simmo. We've still got a fair way to go and not all our current cubs will make it, but a couple of good upcoming drafts along with Cotch and co at Coburg coming through should see us nicely set up for the upcoming decade by 2011-12.

[one-eyed]

In 2010 and 2011 the AFL are thinking of allowing existing clubs to have just 2 picks as compulsory. The 3rd one which is compulsory now would be optional and may come from a promoted rookie. They're also thinking of allowing clubs to have as many as 12 rookies given there'll be more speculative choices due to the new clubs getting the earlier picks and the existing clubs forced to take later ones.

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/clubs-to-get-draft-leeway/2008/05/10/1210131341948.html

[mightytiges]

Surprised this Gold Coast proposal hasn't been mentioned. Crazy stuff if this goes ahead. It will totally screw teams that finish mid-ladder especially 9th-12th.

Coast in bid for 20 of top 24
Jake Niall | June 18, 2008

THE Gold Coast consortium has requested that it be given 20 of the first 24 picks in the draft the year before it enters the competition.

At a meeting with AFL and club officials last Friday, leading members of the consortium proposed that the new club be given picks 1-5 and 10-24 in the 2010 national draft, with the bottom four teams receiving picks 6,7, 8 and 9 in the normal reverse order.

The team that finished 12th on the ladder would fare terribly — losing 20 places in draft order, given that it would not have a draft choice until pick 25, unless it managed to trade for an earlier pick.

http://www.realfooty.com.au/news/news/coast-in-bid-for-20-of-top-24/2008/06/17/1213468424244.html