How many wins from this point?

[yellowandback]

We are 1 month into the season and should have a decent "feel" for how our team is going this year.

How many wins do you think before the final match against the Bombers?

I am thinking another 8 wins which will put us on 11 wins before tackling the Bombers - possibly for 8th.

[Eat_em_Alive]

Good thread been wanting to discuss, Although I dont think we will get a feel till after this week and how we respond to a loss, away from home, key players missing and underdogs.

I tend to look at it in 4 week blocks and by the completion of round 8 I would like to think we could be 5-3
Most people would take that last year Im sure

5    Friday, April 26     Fremantle    Patersons       Away   loss
6    Saturday, May 4     Geelong     MCG    Home    loss
7    Saturday, May 11     Port Adelaide    AAMI       Away   win
8    Sunday, May 19       Melbourne    MCG    Home    win
9    Saturday, May 25     Essendon    MCG    Home    win
10    Monday, June 3     West Coast     Patersons       Away loss
11    Bye               
12    Saturday, June 15     Adelaide     MCG    Home    win
13    Saturday, June 22     Western Bulldogs    Etihad       Away win   
14    Sunday, June 30     St Kilda    MCG    Home    win
15    Saturday, July 6     North Melbourne    Etihad       Away  loss
16    Saturday, July 13     Gold Coast     Cazalys       Home    win
17    Sunday, July 21     Fremantle    MCG    Home loss
18    Sunday, July 28     Sydney     SCG    Away   loss
19    Saturday, August 3     Hawthorn    MCG    Away   loss
20    Saturday, August 10     Brisbane Lions    MCG    Home win
21    Saturday, August 17     Carlton    MCG    Home    loss
22    Sunday, August 25     GWS     Skoda       Away   win
23    TBC                      Essendon    MCG    Away  loss

That makes 12 wins and may just scrape in at this point

Based on the way we've played the last 4 weeks this is what id expect, if our team was to gel and perform like the first half of last year but actually overcome close games with their experience and self belief id be confident of 14-15 wins but they just dont look like they are there yet.

I thought against WCE, Geel etc last year we were great but just short I have only seen glimpses of that this year

[Damo]

Tier 1 - Melbourne, Dogs, Saints, Gold Coast, Brisbane,GWS - I think we will win 5 of these 6 at a minimum and should be winning all of them.

Tier 2 - Port, Essendon, Adelaide, Kangas, Carlton, Essendon - Conservative says we should win 3 of these 6.

Tier 3 - Freo, Geelong, West Coast, Freo, Sydney, Hawthorn - We can definitely pinch Wce, or Freo in either game. I'll again be conservative and say we win 1.

I have is winning 9 more games for 12 in total and holding our breath. Could very well come down to winning the last against Essendon to make it.

[Hellenic Tiger]

Freo loss
Geelong loss
Port loss
Melb win
Ess possible
West Coast loss
Adelaide win
Dogs win
St.Kilda win
North possible
Gold Coast win
Freo home possible
Sydney loss
Hawthorn loss
Brisbane win
Carlton possible
GWS win
Essendon possible

What we have is 7 wins to take us to 10.

Key is the possibles against the teams who we play around us North, Carlton, Essendon and Freo at home of which we play 5 games we need to win our fair share and then pinch a game whether by natural improvement or teams having an off season or Essendon just having nothing to play for this season possibly, then that opens up the ladder and the draw.

Key games for me will be Freo at home and Carlton at home. By Essendon in rd 23 we may or may not be there by then.

If we can pinch tomorrow night and if Port's early season bubble is burst and we cash in either one of those two keeps the win above losses after our early season cheer and keeps momentum.

A 6-4 turn after West Coast leaves us after the bye with games against the Crows herethe Dogs and the Saints leaving us potentially at 9-4 with a huge game against Nort at Etihad with momentum and wins up and we owe those characterless nobodies.

You would think mid to late season games against Gold Coast, Brisbane and GWS will get us to 12 leaving the possibles and the probable losses to work with and try to pinch a win to get us to 13 or 14 and a certain finals spot.

I am hoping we need to beat GWS to make finals a cert as even if we play poorly as we did there last year we still should win.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

We play well in Adelaide and I think we will beat Power - I reckon 11-12 wins

[tdy]

What is sad is we are still talking just make it territory, firmly in the middle somewhere.  I think this reflects on the unbalanced drafts over the first two years of dimmas time.  It was a terrible time to rebuild.  But with the emergence of conca and those types of younger players I feel we're on the right path.


Still you wonder how Ross Lyon always gets his teams into the finals. 

[tigs2011]

21. Some of you may have lost confidence but we don't play the Pies again. Get it done Tiges 

On a serious note I have confidence we can win tomorrow night. Our outs might hurt though. Can't see us beating the Cats but stranger things have happened.

Hopefully get through end of Round 6 at 4-2 but 3-3 isn't end of the world. Tipped us to be 2-4 at start of the year. 

Round 7-8 (Port/Melbourne) Both are must wins as far as I'm concerned. Port might be 4-0 but they haven't done anything they don't any other year. And the less said about Melbourne the better.  Would leave us either 5-3 or 6-2.

Round 9-10 (Essendon/WC) Both are winnable but both very loseable. Going in 6-2 would give us the confidence to win with the pressure off us. Need to split these 2 games at a minimum. Worst case would leave us 6-4 heading into our bye.

Round 12-15 (Adel/WB/StK/NM) Don't leave Melbourne for a month here and it's where our season can often derail. If we're serious finals contender this is a soft middle section. Dogs and Saints we've already beaten without having to do a lot. Adelaide and Norf have been ordinary and are in direct competition with us so they are big games that we need to win. This is the period where teams depth is tested as players fatigue so our new found depth will be required. With a tough period coming up we should be aiming to win all 4. Should at least go 3-1 And have us at 9-5.

Round 16 (GC) Lose and we won't make it. Simple as that. Must win this or we won't make it again. 10-5

Round 17-19 (Freo/Syd/Haw) Tough period coming up. You'd imagine the last years grand final teams will be pumped to put us in our place after we bent both over last year. But I'm not 100% sold on Sydney yet. Freo at home is the most winnable. Could feasibly go 0-3 which is why we really need to nail that Rd12-15 period.

Round 20 (Brisbane) After a tough stretch this will be a must-win game. Brisbane have been poohouse so far and could feasibly be 2-11 after the mid-point. Could very well be in tank mode by here and we need to put a nail in their (and Vossy's coffin)

Round 21-23 (Carl/GWS/Ess) Potentially will only need to beat GWS but probably need to win 1 other. Hopefully with the Carlton monkey off our backs we can relax ( a little bit) and not stress about our losing streak to them and just play. Essendon game I'd back us to win provided it's not a must-win to make finals.

Should win 12-14 overall. That middle patch of 4 games (Adelaide through to NM) looms as the key. As well as the next 2. We could lose both and still make finals easily but pinch 1 of these 2 (particularly Freo who are below us currently) and it will lessen the pressure.

[tigs2011]

tl;dr 

[rogerd3]

another 14 wins.

[Rampstar]

if we win tomorrow night it will be a huge boost to us getting to 13 wins this season.

[tony_montana]

I think we can 10+ more from here on in

[dwaino]

3-4   

[tigs2011]

3-4   

  I'll hunt u down and kick you in the balls if you've just jinxed our season. 

[yellowandback]

What is sad is we are still talking just make it territory, firmly in the middle somewhere.  I think this reflects on the unbalanced drafts over the first two years of dimmas time.  It was a terrible time to rebuild.  But with the emergence of conca and those types of younger players I feel we're on the right path.


Still you wonder how Ross Lyon always gets his teams into the finals.

Ross Lyon took on sides that drafted in golden eras with priority picks.
Not sure we can talk about being a top end side until we nail being mid table first - how can you leap frog that bit first although its frustrating to see the Bombers and Hawks roll over the top of the Pies and easily account for them while we get nailed 
The reason I posed this thread now is because I'm interested to see whether anyone sees us beating Freo or the Cats - if we were to win 1 it would have us in the 8 and there is a really compelling stat about only 1-2 changes in the 8 after round 6.
IMV, Tonight is a biggie - would be good to steal a win and put another notch on our belt - ie beating a Ross Lyon coached side

[tdy]

I can't see us beating the Cats, Freo possibly.  I thought our best bet was against the pies because Freo is an away match and I'm not sure we travel too well after the Gold Coast debacles.

I'm not Nostradamus by any extent but 3-3 is on the cards.