Fox Footy expert Dermott Brereton lists seven outcomes likely to feature in a Richmond winHerald-Sun
August 29, 2014 RICHMOND travel to ANZ Stadium to battle the ladder leaders to maintain its spot in the eight and achieve an unlikely finals birth.
It’s a monumental challenge for the Tigers, but stranger things have happened and if an upset is to materialise, here is seven likely outcomes.
1. Lance Franklin is the key to Sydney’s scoring prowess. He is a difficult beast to match up on, but Alex Rance has a good track record.
He has the all-round mobility to stay with Buddy and physical power for one-on-one scraps. He can take down the league’s No. 1 forward again.
Statistically, Franklin won the duel the last time they met with four goals in a low-scoring game. But I’ve seen nearly every game Franklin has played and it is fair to say Rance pushes him.
Rance likes to play Franklin shoulder-to-shoulder in the stand up and deliver marking contests. And that is Lance’s least preferred option.
He likes to be out in front on the lead, or “body up” from behind when marking. He takes the pace off the ball with the initial touch and then, in the ensuing juggle to claim the mark, he outreaches his nearly always shorter opponent.
Rance tends to get under his armpit, push him sideways and upset the symmetry of his hands.
2. Adam Goodes is a champion, but the 2014 version of Goodes is a very good player who has reduced his output to cameos inside the forward 50m.
What he does well, he still does incredibly well. But then there’s what he isn’t doing at all any more — he just doesn’t put any pressure on the opposition when they have it.
He is consistently in the bottom few for pressure acts now. If he doesn’t have a carrot dangled in front of him, he struggles to get interested in anything that isn’t going to make a highlight reel.
Goodes wants to protect his body before the finals and won’t put himself in jeopardy this evening. This is a do-or-die battle for the Tigers, not Goodes.
It seems he is prepared to risk further injury on his knees only if he can impact the game for an immediate scoring involvement, understandable at this point in his career. But it means he can be exploited if he is made to believe an angry, win-at-all-costs Tiger might seriously and deliberately punish him. His hopes of playing deep into the finals series could be damaged.
3. ANZ Stadium is not the Swans’ preferred venue. It is not exactly fortress-like for Sydney, so the Tigers must view this match as up for grabs on neutral territory.
Once a team believes it can’t win, it has lost before the first bounce. But if an inferior team truly believes that, through hard work, a win is its destiny, failure is not an option.
4. Ivan Maric is a competitor. His expected opponent this weekend is the same. But Mike Pyke has not come up, so the Swans have turned to ruck selection No.3.
We saw Sam Naismith play in the Nab Challenge in Canberra earlier this year. He looked incredibly raw and he eventually lost out to Tom Derrickx for the right to be the Swans’ first back-up ruckman.
He has telescopic reach but didn’t seem to have a lot of power in his body, but he must have made some great progress throughout the season because now he gets his chance.
He will have to study Maric’s movements around the ground and keep him within reach in the contest, because Ivan has been taking overhead marks at both ends of the ground.
Should Naismith allow Maric to kick two or more goals while he is on ball, it more than likely will affect the outcome.
5. Sydney’s total team defence is awesome. It is the league leader. But it doesn’t really have a star defender. All the Swans’ lockdown players are workmanlike. They do the job, but they need the midfield support.
Sydney’s star backman are the attacking-style defenders — Nick Malceski, Rhys Shaw and even sometime defender Jarrad McVeigh.
Their best lockdown player in a one-on-one battle is Nick Smith, and he will be required for either Dustin Martin or the in-form Brett Deledio. Dane Rampe will more than likely have to introduce himself to Deledio.
There is a chance against this brilliant team defence that if the ball can be moved quickly towards Richmond’s forwards, and if they can create some legitimate one-on-one battles, they could kick 12-plus goals. That means it’s game on.
6. Troy Chaplin frequently has been the player to whom the other Richmond backman give the ball so he can move it forward accurately. He has taken over from Chris Newman as the outlet player.
It will be a big ask because Chaplin also will have to stop Kurt Tippett marking inside Sydney’s forward 25m.
If Chaplin can get really on top in the first half, perhaps Swans coach John Longmire might even take the heat off him and sub Tippett out early again.
That would be an incredible boost to Richmond’s chances.
7. Last time around, the Swans won by 11 points. But the Tigers were far from disgraced even though they were down the ladder.
Richmond won the contested possession count by +15, clearances by +9, uncontested possession count by +57 and marks by +32. The Swans pride themselves on those areas and Richmond did super-well.
But the Tigers lost the inside 50 count -9, and that gave Franklin enough opportunities.
Richmond moved the ball slowly and denied the Swans access, but lost. Now the Tigers have their mojo back. If they can win similar clearance and contested footy numbers and get the ball to the outside and away from congestion, they will give their forwards better access.
It is not all about moving the ball quickly at every opportunity, because sometimes slowing down the tempo is better. At other times the Tigers will have to flatten their ears and go for broke.
If you give the Swans a look at only one game plan, they will counter it.
A lot needs to go right to beat Sydney. But, in all honesty, there have been bigger upsets this season than the Tigers getting the points this evening.
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