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Match preview: First Elimination Final, Tigers v KangaroosMichael Whiting
afl.com.au
September 8, 2015 SUMMARY Just nine days after they met in a controversial round 23 match, the two Melbourne clubs will square off again. Last week the Kangaroos were widely criticised for resting almost half their squad while the Tigers trotted out a full strength team and recorded a comfortable win. Who will have the last laugh on Sunday? There's not much between the teams, but the loser will see it as a season wasted.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Sunday September 13, 3.20pm
AEST
WHO'S MISSINGRichmond: With Reece Conca back from his two-week hamstring injury, the Tigers will be at full strength. Ben Griffiths (finger) is still a week away, but the Jack Riewoldt-Ty Vickery forward combination is working fine without him.
North Melbourne: Like their counterparts, the Kangaroos will be near full strength, with Lindsay Thomas (foot) the major concern. Jack Ziebell has overcome a head knock and Daniel Wells has been flagged as a shock late inclusion.
THIS YEARRound six, Blundstone Arena: North Melbourne 16.13 (109) d Richmond 10.14 (74).
After a close first half, the Kangaroos punished the Tigers' turnovers to kick six unanswered goals in the third quarter. Lindsay Thomas kicked five goals in a result that pushed Richmond to a 2-4 win-loss record.
Round 23, Etihad Stadium: Richmond 16.12 (108) d North Melbourne 10.7 (67).
Despite resting almost half of its team, the Kangaroos were shock half-time leaders before the Tigers put the foot down to run away with the victory. Dustin Martin starred with 21 touches and three goals
PREVIOUS MEETINGSR12, 2014, North Melbourne 17.14 (116) d Richmond 13.10 (88) at Etihad Stadium
R15, 2013, North Melbourne 19.14 (128) d Richmond 8.18 (66) at Etihad Stadium
R17, 2012, North Melbourne 15.13 (103) d Richmond 14.15 (99) at the MCG
R24, 2011, North Melbourne 15.14 (104) d Richmond 13.13 (91) at Etihad Stadium
R5, 2011, Richmond 17.10 (112) d North Melbourne 14.19 (103) at Etihad Stadium
THE SIX POINTS1.Richmond’s win last Friday was set up by a nine-goal final quarter. Ty Vickery and Dustin Martin kicked three goals each and Trent Cotchin had 30 disposals.
2. The difference in ruck numbers between the two teams is stark. North Melbourne is ranked fourth for hit outs a game thanks to Todd Goldstein, who leads the competition with a total of 937. Richmond is ranked 14th in the same category.
3. The Kangaroos hold a 3-2 edge in finals matches between the clubs. The last time they met was a 1995 qualifying final, won by North Melbourne by 30 points. Richmond has not won any final since 2001.
4. The Kangaroos are ranked second for goalkicking accuracy, operating at 53.2 per cent. Richmond is ranked 10th at 50.3 per cent.
5. The Tigers continue to struggle in tackling, ranked 17th with 57.8 a game, while the Kangaroos are ranked 11th with 65.4 a game.
6. Despite being rested last week, Goldstein has remained at a career high No.4 in the Official AFL Player Ratings, trailing just Nat Fyfe, Scott Pendlebury and Patrick Dangerfield.
KEY MATCH UPS1. Todd Goldstein v Ivan MaricGoldstein is tipped to be All Australian, but Big Ivan has the size and strength to worry him at the contest. Goldstein has been the Kangaroos' most influential player this season and his output is crucial to their success.
2. Jack Ziebell v Trent CotchinSure, they might not go head-to-head, but these two are the barometers for their respective teams. Ziebell leads by brute force and Cotchin by class, and the pair will have a big say on the midfield battle.
3. Dustin Martin v Ben JacobsAfter tearing the Kangaroos apart last week, Martin again looms as the Tigers' dangerman. Jacobs will take him in the midfield, but just as importantly, Michael Firrito will get the big job when he drifts forward.
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …Richmond: Trent Cotchin. The captain will have horror memories of the corresponding match against Port Adelaide last year. He won the toss, kicked against the breeze and the Tigers were smashed. He'll be desperate to lead his team to a first finals win in 14 years.
North Melbourne: Brad Scott. Whether he likes it or not, this finals campaign will reflect on Scott. From chasing ready-made players like Jarrad Waite and Shaun Higgins in the off-season, to resting everyone last week to prepare – everything is geared towards a deep run.
WHERE THE TIGERS CAN WIN ITAgainst Fremantle and Hawthorn, they've have shown they can move the ball quickly and accurately – the older Roos won't like that. If the Tigers are bold, they have the class in Cotchin, Martin and Deledio to do damage forward of centre.
WHERE THE KANGAROOS CAN WIN ITThe closer the game is, the more their experience comes into play. Winning two finals last year was significant, and Higgins and Waite have also won in September. A tight contest will suit these Kangaroos.
PREDICTION: Richmond by 18 points http://www.afl.com.au/news/2015-09-08/match-preview-first-elimination-final-tigers-v-kangaroos
