Is Richmond making Hawthorn's mistake? (Foxsports)

[one-eyed]

IS RICHMOND MAKING HAWTHORN’S MISTAKE?

The Hawks were the dominant side of the mid-2010s, winning a remarkable three straight premierships.

In a bid to stay in that premiership window, coach Alastair Clarkson opted to try and top-up his squad with the inclusions of Tom Mitchell, Jaeger O’Meara, Jarman Impey, Jack Scrimshaw, Tom Scully and Chad Wingard in the following years.

But by 2019, missing the eight with a ninth place finish, the premiership window was firmly shut and left the Hawks with their earliest draft pick at 45 during that busy trade period.

Three successive bottom five finishes ensured the Hawks were firmly in a rebuild stage where Clarkson departed and Sam Mitchell took over as coach.

Richmond now find themselves in the same scenario after winning three premierships in the space of four years.

Hawthorn’s premiership window slammed shut within four years of their last premiership. Should the Tigers follow the same fate - they have just two years left to get back to the top before a full rebuild could be required.

Following on from news veterans Trent Cotchin and Jack Riewoldt will go round again in 2023, the Tigers are already topping up their squad with Giants Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper both selecting Richmond as their preferred trade destination.

But SEN’s Kane Cornes has warned Richmond to learn from Hawthorn’s mistakes.

“It’s not going to be (Tigers’ coach) Damien Hardwick’s problem. It’s going to be very unlikely that he’s going to coach Richmond for 20 years,” Cornes said.

“So, he’s gone, ‘Get me another premiership in the next three years’. He wants another premiership now and if it takes seven years to get them well when Jacob Hopper is 33 in the seventh year of that contract it’s not going to be Hardwick’s problem.

“Similarly with (Alastair) Clarkson at Hawthorn. (He said) ‘Get me Wingard, O’Meara and Mitchell - it’s not going to be my problem, I’m going to be long gone’.

“I’m not sure it’s the most responsible move from Richmond to give players like that seven years.”

West Coast famously “sold the farm” to get Tim Kelly home from Geelong in a bid to keep their premiership window open in 2019.

But that hasn’t worked in the club’s favour with the Eagles failing to finish top four in 2019 and 2020 as they bowed out early in finals, before missing the eight completely in 2021 and then the disaster of a season in 2022.

It has been reported Richmond were prepared to offer seven-year deals for GWS midfielders Taranto and Hopper.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-week-two-of-finals-highlights-analysis-talking-points-jordan-de-goey-new-deal-tim-taranto-jacob-hopper-sevenyear-deals-richmond-tigers-gws-giants-exodus/news-story/d751b887f2a7629f31a995c96bb9ced2

[Hard Roar Tiger]

I guess for me the difference is that the Hawks really overachieved in 2018 and limped out in straight sets.
We have most definitely under achieved in 2022, we were the only team to be leading in 20 of 22 games and based on expected score, would’ve finished top 2 this year.
We are fixing a list deficiency in the midfield and hopefully the coaches fix some of the school boy errors in close games with football management solving the soft tissue crisis of the past couple of years.

Everyone does their bit - we will challenge again.

If it doesn’t work, well nothing ventured. This doesn’t feel at all like Hawks 2018 and it’s nothing like Richmond 2009.

[camboon]

It just Kornes trying to be relevant and trying to be Hutchinson’s shock jock, waste of time
I believe Hawthorne threw the baby out with the bath water by exiting their leadership group and lost their culture, where we are transiting thank goodness

[Tiger Khosh]

There’s been a few things I’ve read recently in terms of list demographic and drafting frequency in the years proceeding the trade periods that show that the circumstances aren’t the same. It’s just an easy comparison to make for the media without doing any of the research to support it.

[Hard Roar Tiger]

IIRC, Hawks did not have a top 10 pick for about 14 years until last year.

They’ve had 4 top 30 draft picks in the 8 years leading into 2029, we had 5 top 30 picks last draft. 

[Tiger Tragic]

Dawks didn't have 5 picks in the top 30 the year before in which 3 of the 5 made debuts and 2 of the 5 were best 22 in a finals team. We have way more young talent coming through that Taranto and Hopper can ride the wave with.

[Jonesracing82]

There are so many differences between the 2 it's not even funny, in '18 Dawks went 4-0 in games decided by less than a goal, we went 0-5-1 incl the Final. As far as youth goes, we always invested heavily in the Draft while up the top whereas they always traded out of the draft during their time at the top.

[Knighter]

Either way it’s not as big a mistake as Karen’s Mum and Dad made

[one-eyed]

Here's a comparison of Top 30 draft picks over the past 10 years (2012 - 2021)

Hawthorn:

2021:   7. Josh Ward  (14 games)
          23. Sam Butler  (9)
          26. Conner MacDonald (20)

2020:   6. Denver Grainger-Barras (21)
          29. Seamus Mitchell (-)

2019:  13. Will Day (33)
          29. Finn Maginness (19) ..... Father-Son.

2018:  -

2017:  -

2016:  -

2015:  19. Ryan Burton  ...... now at Port Adelaide.
          22. Kieran Lovell (2) ...... delisted end of 2018.

2014:  -

2013:  24. Billy Hartung (63) ...... delisted end of 2017.

2012:  28. Tim O'Brien ....... now at the Western Bulldogs.

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/td-hawthorn-hawks?year=2012


Richmond:

2021:    9. Josh Gibcus (18)   
           17. Tom Brown (-)   
           28. Tyler Sonsie (7)   
           29. Sam Banks (-)   
           30. Judd Clarke (3)

2020:   -

2019:   21. Thomson Dow (13)

2018:   20. Riley Collier-Dawkins (11)

2017:   17. Jack Higgins ...... now at St Kilda
           20. Callum Coleman-Jones ..... now at North Melbourne
           25. Noah Balta (62)

2016:   29. Shai Bolton (90)

2015:   15. Daniel Rioli (137)

2014:   12. Corey Ellis (27) ...... trade to Gold Coast end of 2018 and now delisted.

2013:   12. Ben Lennon (21) ..... delisted end of 2017.

2012:    9. Nick Vlastuin (190)

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/td-richmond-tigers?year=2012

[Hard Roar Tiger]

The comparison is actually laughable when you look at it that way.

[Andyy]

Dow and RCD back to back are probably fails and hurt the club

[Tiger Khosh]

Dow and RCD back to back are probably fails and hurt the club

Just shows that first round draft picks (especially late ones) are far from guaranteed to be successful. If you look at both drafts and the players taken after those boys they are very few names which stand out. Probably rowbottom and Warner in 2018 and 2019 both picked up by Sydney are the standouts.

Just further evidence that trading for hopper and Taranto is the better move (depending on what we actually give up).

[Andyy]

Dow and RCD back to back are probably fails and hurt the club

Just shows that first round draft picks (especially late ones) are far from guaranteed to be successful. If you look at both drafts and the players taken after those boys they are very few names which stand out. Probably rowbottom and Warner in 2018 and 2019 both picked up by Sydney are the standouts.

Just further evidence that trading for hopper and Taranto is the better move (depending on what we actually give up).

Yeah anything after the top 10 range I basically consider an uncertainty. Pick 12 is really the only useful one we have here although I can see the value of having the first pick of round 2 after a bit of shuffling and a night to think it over.

[one-eyed]

Waiting for old mate @kanecornes  to pass judgement on Port going after Josh Dunkley, Junior Rioli & Kozzie PIckett given he has been so outspoken about Richmond's trade plans. Hope Port aren't falling into the Hawthorn trap chasing all these ready made to try and become relevant.

https://twitter.com/P_T_Ager/status/1569604107635400705

 

[camboon]

And he probably wonders why people think he is just taking the pee