Full article is about how much footy has changed over the past 20 years.
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Analysis: Why the prototype AFL player will continue to evolveThe early 2000s are seen as the glory days but how would the players of yesteryear fare against today’s stars? Sam Landsberger investigates.
Sam Landsberger
December 21, 2022 - 12:00PM
News Corp Australia Sports NewsroomComedian Mick Molloy described it as one of the great pub arguments.
Who was better? The champion Brisbane Lions team of 2001-03 or the 2017-2020 Richmond dynasty that, in Molloy’s words, pulled Geelong’s pants down?
“I do have a serious take on this, which is more a reference to how far the game has come, and it’s not self-deprecating by any stretch,” Cats coach Chris Scott responded from The Front Bar studio this year.
“But the modern player today would just run rings around even the best teams of 20 years ago, and I suspect the same will be in 10 years’ time as well.
“For example, young Sam De Koning, our fullback, is 19 years of age is 204cm. It’s just unheard of that that would happen in 2001.”
Scott starred next to key defenders Mal Michael (190cm) and Justin Leppitsch (191cm) in that unstoppable Lions line-up.
They could match it physically with Wayne Carey (192cm) – but are barely tall enough to look this year’s Brownlow Medal-winning midfielder Patrick Cripps (195cm) in the eye.
The AFL evolution in the 21st century has been stunning. Players are taller, fitter, faster and stronger and coaching tactics have advanced exponentially.
THE TACTICAL SUBOne of Scott’s offsiders in his 2011 premiership coaches’ box, opposition analyst Rob Harding, said the introduction of a tactical substitute in 2011 accelerated growth across the ground.
“The sub rule took four players on the bench back to three plus the sub, and the player that got lost in that was essentially the second ruck,” Harding said.
“Leigh Brown was the first key forward who could pinch-hit in the ruck and, after Collingwood won the 2010 premiership, clubs started looking for a Leigh Brown-type.
“So, a 195cm second or third key forward that could pinch-hit in the ruck for five minutes a quarter. The natural evolution out of that was if we have someone who’s 200cm who can do that role, we’re going to compete better in the ruck and then also have a forward presence.
“Once you start getting 200cm key forwards who also pinch hit in the ruck, you start needing 200cm key defenders to play on them.”
The Lions now unleash Joe Daniher and Eric Hipwood out of one goalsquare and Harris Andrews out of the other. All tower over 200cm, with another five that size on Brisbane’s list.
A DIFFERENT TIMETHE speed in today’s game stands out to former Richmond champion Joel Bowden.
“I've watched bits and pieces of me from different times and we were so slow. The game was just pedestrian,” Bowden, who played from 1996-2009 and was All-Australian in 2005-06, said.
“And tactically we were still playing a full-forward – someone was still standing in the goalsquare!
“When I started playing in the backline I said to my forward, ‘Go as far as you want up the ground and get the ball. I’ll defend you at centre half-back’.
“We had our system working where they could go all the way up, and we’d defend from centre half-back.
“Then we didn't get the ball back, we’d play a bit of soccer and what have you. That had never been done before.”
In the early 2000s Bowden tagged Brownlow Medallists Robert Harvey, Shane Crawford and Nathan Buckley.
It was good, old fashioned one-on-one football.
“I’d let Crawford go deep into our backline and I’d stay up on the 50m and catch him on the way out. There’s no point running an extra however far,” Bowden said.
“And if he got a handball around the back, he had to kick it somewhere and I’d be there.
“(Former coach) Danny Frawley said to me, ‘You’ll get the ball, we know that. Harvey’s going to get 35, so you go and get 25’.
“Rather than putting Duncan Kellaway on him to try and reduce Harvey to 30 and Duncan would get five. So it was run around one-on-one for 120 minutes.
“No rest, nothing. Just run.”
ROTATING INTO THE FUTUREA YOUNG Dane Swan played 27 games in 2004-05. In nine of those he played every minute.
In another six the then-cleanskin midfielder played more than 90 per cent game time. Swan seldom saw the bench, and his special powers remained unseen.
“We never worried about him,” Bowden said.
“We're playing Collingwood – Dane Swan? Whatever. Because he’s run for 120 minutes. He’s exhausted. He’s plodding around by the end.
“Then, Mick Malthouse goes overseas – he told me this – and looked at all the different sports and figured out its about rotations and keeping your players fresh.
“Dane Swan reduces his time on ground from 100 per cent to 80 per cent, and comes on and off the field bursting, and he gets more possessions and wins a Brownlow.
“Less game time, wins a Brownlow. It's counterintuitive. And that sped the game up exponentially.”
Bowden was at the AFL monitoring rotations as they exploded. Coaches had uncorked the magic potion.
In 2005, when Swan soldiered through every second from rounds 10-15, clubs averaged 36.3 rotations. In 2012, the year after Swan won the Brownlow, they averaged 130.7.
“Clubs would look at the athletic profile of each individual player and find the tipping point where that player started to decrease in their athletic ability,” Harding explained.
“For some players it might be six or seven-minute bursts, and then their metres per minute and high-intensity running would drop off.
“There are other players who can sustain a reasonable level for 15-16 minutes.
“So you’re getting players being able to play more of their maximum capacity, rather than being under fatigue for longer periods of time.”
When Harding was at the Cats inside midfielders Jimmy Bartel and Joel Corey could slug it out, whereas Travis Varcoe and Allen Christensen – who played a higher intensity up-and-back role – were burst boys.
In 2014 the AFL first capped rotations and now clubs are allowed 75 per game.
“They’ve slowed it down, but the players haven’t slowed down,” Bowden said.
“They're getting bigger and stronger.”
LAND OF THE GIANTSBOWDEN marvels at the physique of today's heroes.
“Cripps from Carlton … he’s a ruckman (in previous eras),” he said.
“John Nicholls was six-foot-one (189cm) and he’s Carlton’s greatest ever ruckman. Cripps is six-foot-three!
“(Marcus) Bontempelli is six-foot-three. All these blokes are enormous and running around like ballerinas.
“They're so fine and fit and strong they look like ballerinas because they’re that fast and that strong and that quick.”
Bowden watched 199cm Tiger Tom Lynch crush Collingwood with 6.1 in May … playing on 201cm Magpie Darcy Moore. He thought they both ran around like rovers.
Brothers Max and Ben King and Sam and Tom De Koning are all stomping around north of 200cm now while last year’s No. 2 pick Sam Darcy grew from 203cm to 208cm months after he was drafted.
Next year’s No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, French centre Victor Wembanyama, stands 219cm and is tipped to defy the basketball adage that the biggest men go bust.
“Everybody’s been a unicorn over the last few years. He’s more like an alien,” LeBron James said of Wembanyama.
Times are changing.
“Now if you’re 195cm the expectation is that you’ll be Patty Cripps, not Wayne Carey,” Harding, who will coach Sandringham Dragons in 2023, said.
“Every time a new prototype player comes through, and we saw it 25 years ago with Anthony Koutoufides, you need someone who can match that player.
“So now we need a 195cm midfielder to match Bontempelli and to match Cripps.
“We need a 204cm defender to play on Max King, and really a 204cm key forward to stop Sam De Koning intercepting is the next stage of it.
“Then you've got several ruckmen of Max Gawn’s height of 208cm, whereas we had Aaron Sandilands at 211cm and a big gap below that.
“The natural evolution of people is that we’re getting bigger and stronger and faster and athletes are being trained at a higher level from a younger age.
“It’ll keep creeping up bigger and bigger, and what the AFL has to be mindful of is making sure we don’t lose all different shapes and sizes to the game.
“Make sure that there's room for Caleb Daniel, who is 168cm but an elite ball user.”
BUBBLE GROUNDSWHEN Nicholls — an inaugural AFL legend — retired in 1974 as a 189cm ruckman it was a different time.
Players were part-time footballers who stayed in their positions. Now Tim English is a 207cm ruckman who runs around like a midfielder.
The MCG dimensions haven’t shrunk. But coaches want to outnumber at contests and play a defensive press.
The 36 players, with GPS packs tracking every move, can now shrink any ground into a 60m bubble.
“The game is going to look different from era to era because of the professionalism, because of the size of the players and because of the athletic profile of the players,” Harding said.
“It's not better or worse, it’s just different. What it does lend itself to is whether there should be reduced numbers on the field?
“My personal view is that we should stay at 18 because that's the history of the game and I think we have to honour that.
“But if you‘re starting the game from scratch now you probably would go with less numbers given the size of the players and the size of the field.”
GENERATION NEXTJACK Watts was the No. 1 pick in 2008 as a skinny 17-year-old key forward who stood 196cm.
What position would a teenager with Watts’ athletic profile be trained as today?
“It would probably be as a wingman-midfield type, because of his build and ball use,” Harding said.
“He’d be a different type of player, and that’s only in 10 years. You would train him differently now and you would recruit him differently, potentially.
“The conversation for the kids coming through is different. If they are 195cm then the conversation with them is around how do you get your running capability up to play as a midfielder?
“There’ll be some more of the bigger-body type that can’t run as well that won’t make it into the AFL, because you won’t draft a 195cm key forward unless they have an extreme talent in terms of marking or goalkicking.”
But leading AFL recruiters warned that it didn’t matter if a forward was 185cm or 195cm if they weren’t strong overhead. An aerial forward, such as Jack Gunston or Tim Membrey, will outperform a taller but clumsier target.
Don't measure players from the top of the head – measure their leap plus arm length. Max King is unstoppable when he launches in the air and extends his arms and that’s not simply because of his head-to-toe height.
Running has become the hot attribute, particularly for forwards who need to get off their man.
Ross Lyon snap judgment of St Kilda’s list was liking the legs and Geelong’s gems – think Isaac Smith, Bradley Close and Max Holmes – helped the Cats runaway with the cup.
THE PUB TESTScott’s suggestion that modern teams would destroy the golden oldies was backed emphatically.
“Go back and watch the 2000 granny – Essendon was at the height of its power. They would get beaten by 10 goals by any team in the AFL today,” Bowden said.
“Today they line up from outside 50m and just kick a goal. We used to think if you could kick it from 50m that was a good effort. It's out of control, they’re getting so good.”
Bowden shakes his head at how Tiger Shai Bolton runs backwards out of packs and urged patience for AFLW doubters.
“How many generations back have girls been kicking the footy? And so if you fast-forward five generations of growing up kicking the footy, like my daughter is playing under-12s, they're going to get better,” he said.
Harding said Scott’s analysis dripped in merit.
“He can say that, because he played in that Brisbane team. But if Patrick Dangerfield came out and said, ‘Yeah, we’d run rings around Vossy and Black and Lappin and Akermanis’ people would abuse him and laugh at him,” Harding said.
“It's hard to get through your head but the reality is North Melbourne of 2022 would beat Brisbane of 2002. Nick Larkey is jumping all over Mal Michael.”
How the AFL has changedAVERAGE HEIGHT1999 — 185.8cm
2022 — 188.2cm
PLAYERS OVER 200cm1999 — 25 (none at premier North Melbourne or Melbourne)
2022 — 76
AVERAGE INTERCHANGE ROTATIONS2003 26.9
2004 30.4
2005 36.3
2006 46.3
2007 58.9
2008 80.2
2009 91.7
2010 117.3
2011 118.1
2012 130.7
2013 133.1
2014 117.2 *
2015 118.4
2016 95.6
2017 95.1
2018 93.5
2019 93.2
2020 105
2021 83.1 **
2022 82.4
* AFL capped interchanges at 120 per game
** AFL capped interchanges at 75 per game
Note: Average rotations includes changes made at quarter breaks, which aren’t counted in the AFL’s cap
https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/analysis-why-the-prototype-afl-player-will-continue-to-evolve/news-story/51a5a1aa960fe472a676a6a16fa34f0d
