This AFL pick swap was part of North Melbourne’s grand plan. But now they’re on the verge of unwanted historyMarc McGowan
The Age
August 16, 2025 North Melbourne will suffer the ignominy of being the first VFL/AFL club since Fitzroy 57 years ago to finish in the bottom two for six seasons in a row if they lose to Richmond in Hobart on Sunday.
Avoiding that unwanted history provides the Kangaroos with extra motivation in a mostly meaningless round 23 contest between two clubs that will likely fill – in some order – the 16th and 17th ladder positions when the home-and-away season ends.
Adem Yze’s 16th-placed Tigers hold a two-point ladder lead over Alastair Clarkson’s North Melbourne, with only one-win West Coast below them.
The Roos bet on themselves to not still be treading water when they sent their 2025 first-round draft pick to Richmond for the Tigers’ No.27 selection last year and their second-rounder this year.
Richmond were happy to add the sweetener, given the 2025 draft is so compromised with academy, father-son and potential priority picks that the second-round choice probably won’t be until the late 20s.
North Melbourne dangled their future first-rounder as early as St Kilda’s pick eight – and “just kept going” until a rival club finally accepted, the club’s recruiting manager Will Thursfield said on draft night last year.
The Roos’ pre-draft plan was to trade back in for a key-position player, and that ended up being Murray Bushrangers swingman Matt Whitlock, whose twin Jack was drafted by Port Adelaide. North have recalled Whitlock for their date with the Tigers.
After prioritising midfielders in the early years of their rebuild, the Kangaroos spent top-30 picks on Whitlock and tall defender Wil Dawson in the past two drafts.
“You’d hope we’d improve quite a bit, given the cattle we’ve brought in and another year in these young kids, but it’s hard to say,” Thursfield said at the time. “We’ve got to back ourselves in a bit.”
It was the equivalent of Carlton’s trade with Adelaide seven years ago, when the Blues’ then-list manager, Stephen Silvagni, swapped future first-rounders with the Crows to get back into the 2018 draft at No.19 to select Liam Stocker.
Silvagni declared they viewed Stocker as the sixth-best player in the class. Stocker played 28 games in four seasons before Silvagni’s replacement as Carlton list boss, Nick Austin, delisted him at the end of 2022, only for the ex-Blue to join Silvagni at St Kilda.
It was a similar story with Thursfield, who said they felt Whitlock was “around the mark” of the top 10 in the 2024 draft, while noting many key-position players tumbled.
The Roos could limit the damage and leapfrog both the Tigers and Bombers into 15th place, if they win their final two matches of the season and other results go their way. But regardless, Richmond have done well out of the deal.
“There’s a risk with both those things,” Yze said this week.
“Whether Matt Whitlock ends up playing 250 games; it could [look] the other way. Right now, it looks like we might win out of that deal, but when you look at the Kangas – they would have felt that they’re going to [climb the ladder in 2025]. They’ve been in a lot of games this year, and they’re obviously improving.
“Those things happen every year, so you probably can’t look at the result of that until 10 years’ time.”
Why cohesion mattersRichmond have already won more games this season (five) than North Melbourne have in any season since they parted with 14 players – excluding Will Walker, who they redrafted – at the end of 2020.
Like the Kangaroos, the Tigers are rebuilding, and that went into overdrive last year when they made 10 list changes between delistings, retirements, free agency and trades. Yze is in his second year at Richmond since replacing triple-premiership coach Damien Hardwick.
This is all important when introducing Gain Line Analytics (GLA), a sports and corporate consultancy company that has developed a data-driven model that illustrates team performance is strongly linked to cohesion.
Company co-founder, and general manager of sport, Simon Strachan defines cohesion as “the objective measure of understanding between teammates”, which includes – but is not limited to – games played together; weekly team selection; and even coaching changes.
GLA, which consults many AFL clubs and has a strong association with rugby and rugby league teams as well, uses this data to develop team in-season cohesion markers, or scores.
Strachan said GLA’s data showed that teams with a higher score in this metric tended to outperform rivals with lower levels.
“The AFL tends to have the longest build cycle of most professional sports,” he said.
“Which is why teams going through a rebuild phase take a long time to be truly competitive – and why if teams are not patient through a rebuild; they tend to be stuck in an ongoing recruiting cycle, never being able to develop competitive cohesion markers.”
Richmond’s cohesion score in round one was 5.12, compared to North Melbourne’s 6.37. The competition average at that stage was 9.13.
The Tigers have recorded a double-digit score in all their past eight games – peaking last week at 15.46, ahead of the competition average of 15.34. The Roos reached double digits for four straight games from rounds 13-16, but their score plummeted in the weeks since as injuries piled up.
Richmond’s season-high marker coincided with Tim Taranto and premiership stars Tom Lynch and Nathan Broad replacing first-year trio Jonty Faull, Luke Trainor and Tom Sims.
Strachan is concerned about North Melbourne’s rebuild, based on their cohesion markers, given they recorded higher scores under David Noble in 2021 than Clarkson this season. Four years ago, the Kangaroos started the season at 3.52, but their final 11 games ranged between 10.82 and 13.8.
Successful rebuilds that GLA tracked, such as reigning premiers Brisbane Lions and 2025 ladder-leaders Adelaide, showed consistent cohesion growth across several years.
The Crows and Roos finished second-last and last, respectively, in the COVID-19-shortened 2020 campaign, but GLA data demonstrates how Adelaide’s team in-season cohesion increased significantly as North’s stagnated in the years since.
“North Melbourne bringing in Alastair Clarkson has so far not created any significant difference to the club’s overall cohesion,” Strachan said.
“It is very difficult for a coach to get high levels of performance out of a low cohesion team.
“Even Clarkson in his last year at Hawthorn [in 2021] was working with a low cohesion environment – and the results reflected this. The greatest benefit of Clarkson for North Melbourne is not his coaching ability, but the confidence to give him time to build.”
Why Roos aren’t bounding up ladderNorth Melbourne and West Coast are the only clubs to not record a single top-eight scalp in either of the past two seasons. Richmond, who came last in 2024, secured one in each of those years.
The Kangaroos drew with Brisbane in round nine, but this is a damning statistic for Clarkson and his Roos, who joined forces ahead of the 2023 season.
They have struggled to score as a team, with only one reliable goalkicker – star forward Nick Larkey – while ranking 15th or worse in average points in each of Clarkson’s three years at the helm.
Champion Data considers the two key scoring sources to be from turnovers and stoppages.
North have made little-to-no improvement in those areas under Clarkson. They were 17th in per-game differential for both in 2023, 18th in each last year, and currently are last in scores from turnover differential and 16th in the stoppage equivalent.
The Roos’ actual differentials have barely moved either.
The Tigers were 17th in those scoring sources last season, and remain on that ranking in scores from stoppages in 2025, but have improved to 15th in scores from turnover, while reducing their differential from minus-21 to minus-18.4.
Clarkson believes North Melbourne are making strides. His consistent line, which he repeated on Friday, is that they are in “a lot more games” this year.
The Kangaroos have played nine matches decided by 16 points or fewer, winning three of them, losing five and drawing another. In 2024, they featured in eight contests decided by 19 points or fewer, for three victories.
As for Richmond, Clarkson does not think Sunday’s result will be the best gauge of which club is rebuilding better.
“What really excites us is the sides like Adelaide and Brisbane Lions, who have been on the same journey as us,” Clarkson said. “Adelaide aren’t quite there yet, but they’re on top of the ladder and looking really good, [and] Brisbane took seven or eight years to get from the bottom to the top.
“We know what the formula is, but it’s a difficult track, and there’s no guarantee that you’re ever going to get there. What we can guarantee is we’re trying our best.
“Everyone will like to think that whoever wins this game is on track to get there a little bit quicker than the other, but it’s over a long journey rather than a short one.”
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