2023 AFL Draft

[one-eyed]

Meet the young guns who could be on their way to your AFL club next month

Marc McGowan
The Age
October 30, 2023

The AFL draft is only three weeks away, but there is still time for plenty to change.

We spoke with recruiters from almost every club to get the lowdown on this year’s best prospects, discussing their strengths and weaknesses and where they might land in the order on November 20 and 21.

This draft offers something for everyone from a positional sense – and there are the usual academy and father-son prospects – but there are fewer safe picks than most years and an expectation things could get wild from midway through the first round.

Here are our top 40 prospects in the 2023 draft crop.

Scroll to the bottom of this article to see the draft order in full and each pick’s history. Plus, search club-by-club to see what draft hand your team has.

1. Harley Reid

There’s a reason Reid is discussed ad nauseam – he is a mighty prospect in the mould of Dustin Martin and Christian Petracca, who can be equally impactful up forward as at centre bounces. The Tongala teenager has somehow absorbed the overwhelming hype to perform at every level this season, from the Talent League to the national championships and the VFL, even while dealing with a pre-championships concussion before a knee injury that meant he completed only interviews at the combine. The dual under-18 All-Australian thrives on big moments, has an outgoing personality and looks a surefire AFL star in the making.

2. Jed Walter

The sole source of intrigue here is where a bid comes for Walter, who is certain to become a Sun on draft night. He may have challenged Reid for No.1 honours in an open draft. The hulking key forward already has an incredible presence and is almost as dangerous hunting defenders when he doesn’t have the Sherrin. That defensive intent is rare for someone in his position, and he is tipped to slot straight into Gold Coast’s senior side. Walter was a bit wayward in front of goal at times during the championships, but that is not typically a problem. Only he and Reid are two-time under-18 All-Australians among this draft crop.

3. Colby McKercher

McKercher could hardly have done more in his draft season and is one of the most exciting talents up for grabs. Averaged 30 disposals across Talent League and championships level, and his devastating run and long left-foot kicking were eye-catching. Finished runner-up to Allies teammate Ryley Sanders for the Larke Medal as the best player at the national championships. Rarely a game goes by without the Tasmanian kicking a goal, which only further endears him to recruiters, and he projects as someone who will be able to play on the inside and outside in the AFL. A foot injury hampered McKercher in the latter stages of the season, but he looms as a walk-up start for whichever club selects him.

4. Zane Duursma

Comes from a family of AFL/W footballers and has the potential to be the best of the lot, with younger brother Willem also rising through the ranks. Duursma plays his best football in attack – he kicked three goals or more in seven of his 12 Talent League appearances – but can also go through the midfield, where his high football IQ and silky skills make him a damaging player. Had an up-and-down national championships, but finished on a high with four goals, 22 disposals and 10 marks, a performance that laid the foundations for a purple patch of form for Gippsland. Is not expected to fall outside the top five.

5. Nick Watson

The media call him “the Wizard”, his teammates and agent go with “the Bulldog” and recruiters are almost in unison in predicting he will become an AFL star. Watson is a natural forward capable of the miraculous who is lethal at ground level or marking on the lead, and a brilliant set-shot exponent. Some talent scouts expect him to be as successful as the likes of Eddie Betts and Stephen Milne – small forwards who kicked more than 570 goals each – but they would like to see some defensive improvement. Watson laid only three tackles across his last five Talent League games. Recruiters’ other query on him was his lack of impact against senior opposition for the AFL Academy.

6. Ryley Sanders

Won this year’s Larke Medal as the best player at the under-18 championships while the storyline of North Melbourne trying to gain pre-draft access to their Next Generation Academy prospect bubbled away in the background. Sanders is ultra-professional and impressed recruiters with a more selfless playing style in 2023, as well as finding the ball in more attacking areas that enabled him to increase his impact. A proud Tasmanian attending Melbourne Grammar on a bursary scholarship, the prolific teenager wins disposals for fun and clubs are clamouring to get their hands on him.

7. Nate Caddy

Calls himself a key forward, even if some others hesitate to do the same because of his height – but his supporters believe he is tall enough. Fearlessly attacks the Sherrin in the air and is a dynamic athlete, which was illustrated with his top-10 result in the agility test at the combine. Was solid rather than outstanding at the championships, after missing the opener while recovering from chicken pox, but kicked loads of goals at Talent League level and also won his share of the ball. He is sometimes unleashed as a centre-bounce battering ram, too. The nephew of premiership Tiger Josh suffered a fractured fibula in the pre-season.

8. Daniel Curtin

The assumption is Curtin will be West Coast’s target if they hand over the coveted No.1 selection. Either way, he is certain to be snapped up in the top 10 of the draft. Curtin is best known as a defender, but his increasing aptitude as a big-bodied midfielder has earned him even more admirers. A hamstring issue suffered in Claremont’s Colts grand final triumph sidelined him from combine testing, but there is little left for him to prove. Achieved All-Australian selection at the championships and performed well at WAFL senior level as well. Some recruiters believe he is more likely to be a third tall than a No.1 defender in the AFL.

9. Ethan Read

An awesome athlete, Read is bound for the Suns as one of four club academy prospects who will graduate to the AFL. He was the under-18 All-Australian ruckman then went on to be one of three footballers at the combine to finish the two-kilometre time trial in less than six minutes. He was more than 15 centimetres taller than the other two who achieved that feat. Read has the endurance and skills of a much smaller man, and could thrive at either end of the ground if he is not rucking. Some talent scouts rate him the best ruck prospect in decades. New Gold Coast coach Damien Hardwick might need to get creative to maximise Read’s rare package of talents.

10. Connor O’Sullivan

Silenced many of his doubters and surged into top-10 calculations with a brilliant national championships for the Allies. O’Sullivan gobbled up intercept marks down back on his way to winning the maiden titlists’ MVP award. Can also swing forward if required, while his eighth placing in the two-kilometre time trial at the combine again showed his impressive running ability for someone of his size. The knock on him is that he isn’t overly quick or agile, and his form tailed off in the latter stages of the season, but he enjoyed a very good campaign.

11. Caleb Windsor

There is a chance Windsor could be a top-10 pick after a blistering finish to the year that banished memories of his slow start, but if not, it should not be much after that. Anyone who wanted to see more from him after the championships ended – and there were a few of those – was satisfied by season’s end. Windsor has the ideal wingman profile, with an excellent mixture of speed, endurance and kicking ability. There are recruiters who are reluctant to pick a wingman so high in the draft without confidence he could develop his inside game, but others don’t share that view.

12. James Leake

The Tasmanians are making their mark in this year’s draft crop. The hype was already building around Leake before he earned under-18 All-Australian selection but went to another level once he swung forward and illustrated he could be a match-winner down that end. He kicked 15 goals in his last five matches in the Talent League, but most recruiters still view him primarily as an intercept defender, with one likening him to Tom Doedee given their similar height and playing style. Leake’s ability to perform well as a midfielder during the finals was another tick in his versatility box.

13. Jake Rogers

The only reason Rogers might not be drafted this high is if his academy ties to the Suns mean he slides a bit, which several clubs think could happen. But on ability and performance, this unerringly consistent ball magnet deserves to be here and would not look out of place in the top 10. Rogers was named the AFL Academy’s best player across clashes with Carlton and Port Adelaide’s VFL sides, made the under-18 All-Australian team and had VFL exposure. A smart footballer with a team-first attitude who will be a welcome addition for Gold Coast.

14. Darcy Wilson

The quietly spoken Wilson joins Windsor as the standout outside midfielders in the 2023 draft class, but he is slightly different because of his success in attack. Recruiters believe he could serve as a high half-forward at AFL level. Finished second in the two-kilometre time trial at the combine but his gut running and agility were well-known before that. Won a stack of the ball on a weekly basis in the Talent League and showed improvement with his contested work, leaving him as good as certain to be picked somewhere in the mid-teens.

15. Jordan Croft

Croft has nominated as a father-son prospect for the Bulldogs and will add to the club’s group of promising giants – but where he lands in the draft will be interesting. There is talk the Swans might bid on him with their first pick and recruiters rave about his physical tools at his height, whereas others were wary about the chasm between his best and worst games. Croft will need time to develop but will be afforded that at the Kennel, where there will be no rush for him to play senior football.

16. Will McCabe

The son of ex-Hawk Luke is Hawthorn-bound as a father-son selection. Some recruiters rank him ahead of Croft and Ollie Murphy as a key-position prospect, believing his combination of height and speed is ideal for the role he will fill down back in the AFL. Talent scouts also liked seeing McCabe show more aggression. Did not dominate at the championships, then developed a stress fracture in his left foot afterwards. Returned for the SANFL finals, only for a pelvis issue to flare that sidelined him from combine testing and has him on a rehabilitation program.

17. Koltyn Tholstrup

Rival clubs believe Tholstrup could go as early as 13 but won’t make it out of the teens. Unlike most of this year’s crop, the Subiaco young gun spent most of his season playing against men, where he proved he could fulfil a defined role. Also performed strongly at the championships. Tholstrup is more proven as a forward, where his energy and effort make him highly effective, but there is intrigue about his potential as a midfielder. His larger-than-life personality comes up in any chat about him – but always as a positive.

18. Riley Hardeman

Hardeman’s exceptional kicking skills on his powerful left boot, leadership and performance across several years make him one of the safest picks this year. He captained WA at the championships and was one of his state’s best players in a challenging campaign, including highlighting his improved intercepting prowess. Hardeman also stood up athletically at the combine. Recruiters would not be surprised if West Coast target him, dependent on what they do with the No.1 selection.

19. Ollie Murphy

Has gone from one of the biggest risers of the year to a potential slider. Murphy is still one of the toughest players to place, given his height is coveted down back, he won Vic Metro’s MVP award and he was one of the few defenders to hold their own against Walter. The concerns range from his competitiveness to his so-so speed, as well as an underwhelming finish to the season. But with all that said, Murphy is comfortably among the best key defensive prospects and there are not expected to be many of his kind in next year’s class.

20. Lance Collard

Collard is rocketing up the order and could be drafted in the mid-teens. Likened to Collingwood’s Norm Smith medallist Bobby Hill for his speed and agility – both of which he ranked highly in at the combine – and tendency to produce the spectacular, from a sky-scraping mark to a miraculous goal. Finished the WAFL Colts season with consecutive bags of five goals. There is a gulf between Collard’s best and worst, but recruiters love his upside.

Continues next post:

[one-eyed]

21. Archer Reid

Reid still has plenty to prove, but recruiters put it simply in his case: there are not many 200-centimetre-plus footballers who can move like he does. The brother of Essendon’s Zach – who was a top-10 pick three years ago – is a polarising prospect, but there are enough clubs intrigued by him that he is tipped to be grabbed in the 20s. Reid’s increased ruck exposure late in the season also enhanced his reputation, as well as answering some of the criticism about his competitiveness.

22. Will Graham

This ranking might surprise some, but may not even be high enough, with the possibility the future Sun attracts an opposition bid in the teens. Gold Coast are well-positioned to match bids on all four of their star academy graduates, but would prefer if Graham went later than this. Can play as a midfielder or at half-back and brings speed, athleticism and toughness. Many recruiters think he could step straight into AFL football next year. Has strongly hinted to scouts that he wants to remain on the Gold Coast.

23. Arie Schoenmaker

Schoenmaker’s raking left boot was a weapon for every team he played for this year – he averaged six more kicks than anyone else in the Talent League – and undoubtedly will transfer to whichever AFL club takes a chance on him. In a draft that thins out quickly, that strength, plus his intercepting, should ensure the defender finds a home in the 20s. There are some questions on his contest work but others off the field, based in part on an indiscretion in a Devils training camp that cost him the chance to make an early impact in his draft season.

24. Charlie Edwards

Everything changed for Edwards once his midfield exposure increased late in the season, coinciding with Dragons teammate Will Brown going forward more. He grabbed that opportunity with both hands to produce a withering finish, which greatly impressed recruiters looking for upside. Edwards’ height, smart decision-making, and the way he covers the ground are among his strengths, with his ability to also play forward another tick. Recruiters think his upside might be greater than others in this range.

25. Taylor Goad

Relatively unknown at the start of the year, Goad is suddenly emerging as a potential first-rounder. His vast improvement throughout the season and incredible speed for his size – he ran a sub-three-second 20-metre sprint at the combine – saw him pass many of his ruck peers. The former basketballer is still raw and doesn’t yet have the football nous of fellow top ruck prospects, but many recruiters believe that will come with more exposure to high-level coaching.

26. Harry DeMattia

There will be risks taken at this stage of the draft, but recruiters know what they will get from DeMattia. The Stingrays and Vic Country co-captain is a rock-solid footballer with above-average athleticism and speed. He works hard, is versatile and has leadership in spades. Probably projects as a forward at AFL level, but some think he could end up down the other end. DeMattia also represented Australia in underage cricket as a batsman.

27. Tew Jiath

It is all about the potential upside with Jiath, whose brother Changkuoth plays for Hawthorn. The younger Jiath, another defender who loves to take the game on, is a Hawks Next Generation Academy product, but would need to fall outside the top 40 to be eligible to the club through that means, which is highly unlikely after his breakout second half of the season. He is considered more advanced than his older sibling at the same age and recruiters think the possible reward outweighs the risk.

28. Will Green

This is the year to grab a ruckman, and Green is one of the new-age big men with impressive endurance, which he proved at the combine. He could be the second ruckman taken behind Ethan Read, with Taylor Goad and Mitch Edwards other contenders, and Vigo Visentini rising. Green was the starting ruckman in the Talent League team of the year, in a nod to his strong season. His height, mobility and improvement all make him appealing.

29. Phoenix Gothard

Recruiters preferred Gothard’s form throughout the championships for the title-winning Allies to what he produced at the Bushrangers in a team that struggled. His performances in those contrasting scenarios were understandable given his predominant role as a small forward. Gothard’s combine testing confirmed what was already known: he is fast, exciting and athletic, with tricks that most players this late in the draft don’t possess. There is also a belief that extra exposure to an elite training environment will take him to another level.

30. Mitch Edwards

The top-10, and even first-round, hype is long gone, but Edwards still has fans, even if there are fewer of them at season’s end. He is still not expected to be available beyond pick 40, which would enable Fremantle to match any bid on their Next Generation Academy player. However, it would no longer be a surprise if he slipped into the late 30s. Edwards’ critics point to his running, competitiveness and general lack of development, but he slashed about a minute off his two-kilometre time at the combine, which was a positive. You can’t teach his height, and his skills are good.

31. Angus Hastie

It’s been a steep rise for the ex-basketballer and cricketer in the past 18 months since bursting onto the scene with the Falcons. There is even some suggestion Hastie could be a top-25 pick, with a third-place finish in the agility test at the combine rounding out his draft resume. The dashing defender performed well at the under-18 championships and was a consistently strong contributor in the Talent League, where he was effective as a stopper and interceptor.

32. Zane Zakostelsky

Zakostelsky’s size and excellent athletic profile have sent him soaring up draft boards, with both assets coveted in the AFL, especially in a market that proved itself desperate for key defenders this year. He was among the standouts in combine testing, ranking in the top 10 in four events: the 20-metre sprint, agility and the standing and running vertical jumps. But the other consistent theme with Zakostelsky is not so positive – his kicking. It is a reason not to draft him for some recruiters, but others think it’s fixable and could have him taken closer to pick 25.

33. Archie Roberts

Roberts is universally viewed as a rebounding defender now, whereas there were some midfield claims earlier in the season. He was named at half-back in the under-18 All-Australian team and has a similar draft range to Hastie, behind Hardeman and Leake among defenders. Some recruiters are still unconvinced about Roberts, in part due to questions about his contested game, and they do not expect a non-Victorian club to select him, but his penetrating kicking is a plus.

34. Caiden Cleary

Cleary will graduate from Sydney’s academy to their AFL list, barring a major surprise, after enjoying a prolific season as an on-baller, including performing well at VFL level. He may not have blazing speed or elite kicking skills, but his consistently big numbers, under-18 All-Australian selection and equal-fifth finish in the two-kilometre time trial at the combine won’t leave him tumbling too far in the draft. Could Cleary be the Swans’ next draft bargain?

35. Aiden O’Driscoll

Another draft combine standout, the brother of Dockers Nathan and Emma clocked the quickest 20-metre sprint (2.871 seconds) but also placed top 10 in the two-kilometre time trial, agility test and the standing and running vertical jumps. The knocks on O’Driscoll are his lack of size and not winning enough of the Sherrin, but not everyone shares those concerns. Others are enamoured with his athleticism and think he fits the high half-forward role perfectly.

36. Logan Morris

One of the most polarising players in the draft pool. There are few concerns about Morris’ skill or performance – some argue he is the best contested mark in this year’s class – but recruiters are worried his running limitations (speed and endurance) will make it harder for him to thrive in the AFL at his height. His admirers think his in-game running is better than his combine results showed, and he has a history of kicking bulk goals. Played as a forward and defender at the championships.

37. Cooper Simpson

An injury-marred season made it more challenging for Simpson to press his draft claims, but he finished the year well for the Stingrays. There are different schools of thought about him as an AFL prospect: some are convinced he is better as a forward – where his decision-making and good skills can thrive – but others would select him only if they think he can be a midfielder, on which the jury is still out. The consensus is Simpson is a good all-round player without a major weapon.

38. Luamon Lual

There is a realistic scenario where Lual slides beyond the first 40 picks and into the laps of the Western Bulldogs, who have his draft rights at that stage as a Next Generation Academy prospect. He performed well at the championships – sparking suggestions he might be picked in the 20s – and his defensive instincts, courage and speed appeal to clubs. However, Lual’s decision-making and ball use are why he could fall down the order.

39. Vigo Visentini

Visentini shares a similar aggressive and physical playing style to his brother Dante, a developing ruckman at Port Adelaide. There are recruiters who have more confidence in him than other big men in this top 40, comfortable that his size, running ability and rate of improvement make him a better prospect. Others are not quite as bullish, but believe the dearth of ruckmen next year should only help Visentini’s cause.

40. Koen Sanchez

Played predominantly as a midfielder for East Fremantle, and was a big ball-winner. However, Sanchez also spent time as a forward at the under-18 championships – where he earned All-Australian honours – and recruiters expect him to play that position more in the AFL. Has dealt with repeat injuries in recent years, and there are some question marks on whether he is quick enough to be a small forward at the top level.

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/meet-the-young-guns-who-could-be-on-their-way-to-your-afl-club-next-month-20231022-p5ee4s.html

[Diocletian]

Moir not even top 40 now.

[one-eyed]

Phantom Draft: How the first 27 picks should fall​

HeraldSun
30 October 2023

The AFL draft is only weeks away. Who is your club circling? See how the opening round will play out, with a whopping 27 picks expected.

1. West Coast - Harley Reid
Bendigo Pioneers, 187cm Midfielder/Forward
The Eagles don’t look like giving up the prized No.1 pick unless they get a ‘knock your socks off’ offer – like picks two and three from North Melbourne in return. Reid has repeatedly said he is happy to move west, where he would be capable of having immediate impact through the midfield next year. As Essendon coach Brad Scott said in August, “the hype is real” with Reid. He is a serious talent with power, sublime skills and a signature fend-off.

2. Gold Coast - Jed Walter​ - matching North Melbourne bid​
Gold Coast Suns Academy, 197cm Forward
Rival clubs believe it would be “highway robbery” for the Suns if Walter doesn’t get a bid from the Kangaroos here. Some believe the power forward – who looks up to Carlton’s Charlie Curnow – would be in the conversation for pick 1 if he was not a Suns Academy player. Walter has overcome a knee injury which ended his season early and will be ready to attack pre-season.

3. North Melbourne - Colby McKercher​
Tasmania Devils, 180cm Midfielder
If the Kangaroos keep these picks, lock in the gun Tasmanian midfielder for one of them. Recruiters label McKercher a “superstar” and many have had him pegged as a top-three pick all year. He has speed, agility, sees the game well and makes good decisions. McKercher was a consistent performer across the season, including producing some stunning games for the Allies in the national championships.

4. North Melbourne - Zane Duursma​
Gippsland Power, 189cm Forward
The Kangaroos could probably do with West Australian key defender Daniel Curtin, but it will be hard to pass up this mid-sized X-Factor forward. Duursma had an up-and-down start to the season as he battled injury and illness, but ticked every box in the second half of the year. He was a clear best-on-ground for Vic Country in the biggest game of the year against Vic Metro, standing out with his skills, creativity and ability to win the ball in the air and at ground level.

5. Hawthorn - Nick Watson​
Eastern Ranges, 170cm Forward
If Duursma was to be overlooked by the Kangaroos, he wouldn’t get past Hawthorn. There is also a school of thought that the Hawks could look to West Australian key defender Daniel Curtin with this pick. However, livewire small forward Watson looks the most likely option. The player who has become known as ‘The Wizard’ can make something out of nothing inside-50 with his smarts, quick reflexes and wicked goal sense.

6. Western Bulldogs - Ryley Sanders​
Sandringham Dragons, 185cm Midfielder
The Bulldogs have also been linked to Watson, but expect it to be Sanders if The Wizard is gone. An old-fashioned onballer, Sanders is a bull in the contest and improved his fitness to become more damaging on the spread this year. He was Mr Consistent across all levels of football this season and averaged 35.8 disposals and five clearances for the Allies to win the Larke Medal as the best player of the national championships.

7. Gold Coast - Ethan Read​ – matching Melbourne bid​
Gold Coast Suns Academy, 202cm Ruck
He’s listed as a ruckman and has been likened to Dean Cox in that role, but some say that Read could develop into a versatile everywhere man like Geelong’s Mark Blicavs given his size and running ability. Read finished third in the 2km time trial at the national draft combine to stamp what was already known about his athletic abilities. Some clubs rate him a top-five talent and he would be a good fit for a Demons side which has lost Brody Grundy and Luke Jackson over the past 13 months, so a bid here would not surprise.

8. Melbourne - James Leake​
Tasmania Devils, 187cm Defender/Forward
There was a serious spike in interest around Leake in the second half of the season and all 18 clubs interviewed him at the national draft combine. There is now a feeling that the Tasmanian utility has pushed up into top-10 calculations and the Demons could be the first to pounce ahead of other interested parties in GWS and Geelong. Leake played as an intercept defender for the Allies at the under-18 national championships, before spending time forward and through the midfield with the Tamanian Devils in the back half of the Coates Talent League season. He is strong in the contest, has great athletic attributes and has proven his flexibility.

9. GWS - Daniel Curtin​
Claremont, 197cm Defender/Midfielder
A West Australian who has been likened to Fremantle great Matthew Pavlich, Curtin was discussed as a top-three prospect earlier in the year. However, expectations now are that he could slide a few spots, leaving the Giants as a potential beneficiary. Curtain has said he is happy to move interstate, but West Coast is known to be a big fan. With live trading available to clubs, could the Eagles could offer up something juicy to the Giants to take this pick and Curtin? If not, GWS would be pretty happy to snag a player who shines as a key defender but also showed plenty as a big-bodied midfielder this year.

10. Geelong - Nate Caddy​
Northern Knights, 193cm Forward
The Cats have also been linked to hard-running wingman Darcy Wilson, but marking forward Caddy would be hard to pass up if he’s still on the board. Melbourne also has interest in Caddy, but if it takes Leake then there’s every chance Caddy gets through to the Cats. Given Geelong’s ageing key forward stocks – Jeremy Cameron is 30 and Tom Hawkins is 35 – it makes sense to bring in some new blood. Recruiters believe Caddy has the potential to be a Charlie Curnow-type in time given his aerial abilities, power and strength.

11. Essendon - Connor O’Sullivan​
Murray Bushrangers, 198cm Defender
Given they lost Brandon Zerk-Thatcher during the trade period and they have been unable to get Zach Reid’s body right to this point, the Bombers are expected to address their defensive woes with O’Sullivan at this pick. The backman has a body that is ready-built to step up to the AFL and has the height to play on the monster forwards in the game. While most comfortable in defence, the Albury product has also shown an ability to hit the scoreboard when he has been used at the other end of the ground on occasion in recent years.

12. Adelaide - Darcy Wilson​
Murray Bushrangers, 186cm Midfielder
The Crows need a key defender most of all, but if O’Sullivan is gone then they might look to address a different list need here. Adelaide is a side that has plenty of inside grunt, but adding some line-breaking run on the outside would not hurt. Wilson – who has been labelled a better runner than Carlton’s Oliver Hollands – could bring that. He can play on a wing or as a half-forward, has good football IQ, is a thumping kick and can hit the scoreboard.

13. Melbourne - Caleb Windsor​
Eastern Ranges, 184cm Midfielder
The mail is that Melbourne is just about set on selecting Windsor with its second selection here. The Eastern Ranges product is another player to have shot up draft boards in the second half of the season, even more so after a strong showing at the national draft combine. The wingman had a big under-18 national championships with Vic Metro and is seen as a player with real weapons with his speed, foot skills and decision making. He is a modern-day wingman who most clubs would love to have.

14. Gold Coast - Jake Rogers​ – matching Sydney bid​
Gold Coast Suns Academy, 170cm Midfielder
The Swans aren’t afraid to make a bid on draft night and if Rogers fell much further than this it would be a steal for the Suns. The midfielder has been likened to Touk Miller as a tough, quick, agile and efficient inside midfielder who has clean hands and brings great leadership. Having finished school last year, he has already been treated like a first-year player at Gold Coast this year. A back injury ended his season early, but Rogers should be ready to go for pre-season and will push to break into a strong midfield group at the Suns next year.

15. Sydney - Will Green​
Northern Knights, 204cm Ruck
The Swans are believed to be having a good look at Green for this pick, and while it appears somewhat of a surprise it is not much of a stretch. The towering young ruckman could be anything after showing plenty of development this year. His tap-work stands out, but he is also aerobically strong to cover the ground and has good fundamentals with his kicking and marking. Green was a member of the All-Australian team this year, following a big under-18 national championships with Vic Metro.

16. Western Bulldogs - Jordan Croft​ – matching St Kilda bid​
Calder Cannons, 200cm Forward
If a bid doesn’t come earlier for Croft, don’t be surprised if the Saints place one here. St Kilda is one of a number of clubs who have very much liked what they have seen from the mobile key forward this year, but he will find his way to Whitten Oval after being nominated as a father-son by the Bulldogs. The Calder Cannons graduate – who is the son of former Dogs defender Matthew – finished fourth in the 2km time trial at the national draft combine but sees his marking and ability to create a contest in the air as his biggest strengths.

17. St Kilda - Riley Hardeman​
Swan Districts, 185cm Defender
Will the stars align for the West Australian, who grew up as a St Kilda supporter and loved watching Stephen Milne? Hardeman spoke to 16 clubs at the draft combine, where he showed his strong athletic traits – including some real speed which the Saints could use more of. He captained Western Australia at the under-18 national championships, playing primarily off half-back. However, he also looked good through the midfield for Swan Districts in the WAFL Colts at stages this year.

18. Hawthorn - Will McCabe​
Central District, 197cm Defender
A key defender from South Australia, there’s no doubt the Crows would love to get their hands on McCabe. However, the Hawks are certain to match a first-round bid on the father-son prospect, whose father Luke is the current football director at Waverley Park. McCabe is exactly what Hawthorn needs, with the club being desperate to bolster its backline. He is athletic, can play a little taller or smaller, is very good one-on-one and can provide some rebound by foot off half-back.

19. Adelaide - Ollie Murphy​
Sandringham Dragons, 200cm Defender
The Crows need to address their backline, after losing Tom Doedee through the free agency period and losing Nick Murray to an ACL injury late in the season. They weren’t able to prise Harrison Petty out of Melbourne during the trade period, but look a good chance to grab Murphy here. Playing as a key defender for the first time this year, Murphy showed plenty as he won Vic Metro’s MVP award following a big under-18 national championships campaign. He looks up to St Kilda intercepting king Callum Wilkie.

20. North Melbourne - Lance Collard​
Subiaco, 180cm Forward
West Coast had hoped earlier in the year that they would be able to pick up Collard as a Next Generation Academy player outside the top-40 selections. However, there is no way that is happening now. Clubs believe the small forward – who has been described as a Bobby Hill clone – is very likely to be taken in the first 20 picks on draft night given his match-winning abilities and athletic traits. Carlton and Fremantle have also shown interest, but their first picks are likely to fall too late. Adding a livewire small forward is an area the Kangaroos clearly want to address.

21. GWS - Charlie Edwards​
Sandringham Dragons, 191cm Midfielder
A late-season bolter, there are suggestions that Edwards could be snapped up even earlier than this. But what looks certain is that he won’t be any later given the interest from a number of clubs in this range, including the Giants. Edwards started the season across half-back for the Sandringham Dragons but moved into the midfield to great effect in the second half of the year. He can drive his legs through traffic, is a penetrating kick and is a great size for a modern-day midfielder.

22. North Melbourne - Archer Reid​
Gippsland Power, 203cm Forward
The younger brother of Essendon defender Zach, Reid does his best work at the other end of the ground as a towering key forward who can take a nice mark and also added another string to his bow by going into the ruck later in the year. He’s not the complete package just yet, but the potential upside is sizeable and he fits a need for North Melbourne. The Kangaroos have to provide Nick Larkey with some help in attack. The Callum Coleman-Jones experiment hasn’t worked yet and Charlie Comben has barely been available in his four years at the club due to injury.

23. North Melbourne - Wil Dawson​
Gippsland Power, 200cm Defender
When it comes to key defenders, the cupboard is fairly bare at Arden St. The Kangaroos lost Ben McKay to Essendon through free agency, after losing Griffin Logue to a 12-month ACL injury late in the season. It is an area they need to bolster and some clubs believe that Dawson is a first-round smoky for the Kangaroos given they are set to overlook Arie Schoenmaker, while Zane Zakostelsky will be off the board by the time the club’s next pick comes around. Dawson has met with just about every club and attended the national draft combine. He was a once a skinny onballer who turned into a ruckman and key forward before finding his niche down back for Gippsland Power this year.

24. Collingwood - Koltyn Tholstrup​
Subiaco, 186cm Forward
Some rate the West Australian as a top 15 to 20 prospect, but there’s a chance he could slide just a touch and find his way to the reigning premiers. Collingwood is believed to have done some recent work on Tholstrup, a dynamic forward who can also pinch-hit in the midfield and have an impact with his agility and running power. The boy from Esperance in regional WA had a strong national championships for his state and played 10 games of senior WAFL football with Subiaco, suggesting that he is very much capable of making the step up to AFL football in the not-too-distant future.

25. Adelaide - Arie Schoenmaker​
Tasmania Devils, 194cm Defender
Adding some defensive depth looks key for the Crows in this draft and Schoenmaker is another player the club will need to seriously consider at this pick, even if they do land Murphy with their second selection. Schoenmaker is a versatile prospect from Tasmania and can break the play open was the back-half with his penetrating left-foot kick. He also spent some time in the ruck at the tail end of the Coates Talent League season and hit the scoreboard with some long goals from outside 50.

26. St Kilda - Harry DeMattia​
Dandenong Stingrays, 185cm Midfielder
The Saints want to bolster their midfield and while next year looks like being a better draft for that, they could get started early with DeMattia. The former junior cricket star has explosive breakaway speed from the contest – something the Saints are lacking – along with nice agility, clean hands and a good pressure game. Unsurprisingly, DeMattia finished in the top-10 in the 20m sprint at the national draft combine. He is a player with plenty of fans within the first round of the draft.

27. Carlton - Luamon Lual​
GWV Rebels, 182cm Defender
The first round of the national draft does not usually stretch this far, but the Blues are likely to find themselves at pick 27 for their first-round selection given the earlier bids. Lual is linked to the Western Bulldogs through the club’s Next Generation Academy, but is little chance to make it past pick 40 for the Bulldogs to be able to match a bid on him. The athletic small defender added some more offensive rebound to his game this year, after primarily playing a lockdown role in his bottom-age season. The Blues will have another selection just a few picks later in the second round, but if they want Lual they might have to take him here given other interest in the 30s.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-phantom-draft-2023-expert-chris-cavanagh-looks-at-how-the-first-round-should-fall/news-story/eb45a8723e3d6c19ad92013c2ddec713

[Diocletian]

Word is we're looking to trade up on the night - Collard the primary target.

[georgies31]

Word is we're looking to trade up on the night - Collard the primary target.

We need a few talls not small forwards.

[Andyy]

Word is we're looking to trade up on the night - Collard the primary target.

Please no

Omg

What's the point of having blokes like Clarke, MRJ, Coulthard etc.

Just get a effing key forward.

[Knighter]

Word is we're looking to trade up on the night - Collard the primary target.

Yeah who’s word?

[one-eyed]

Q. Does this mean Richmond won’t be taking Charlie Naish this year?

Jon Ralph: Hi Monique. I actually forgot to ask. They will have limited list spots available but not sure about Naish


https://twitter.com/merrrnique/status/1719112226794312138

[Andyy]

Why not just grab 2 key forwards and Naish with a late pick?

Or 1 key forward, maybe a slider like Moir if he slides and Naish with the dud pick?

[one-eyed]

Cooper Simpson's highlight reel is FILTHY | 2023 AFL Draft prospect highlights


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6mW-mBORCs


He's considered to be a mid-late 2nd rounder and a couple of phantom drafts have him at our pick.

[Andyy]

Cooper Simpson's highlight reel is FILTHY | 2023 AFL Draft prospect highlights


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6mW-mBORCs


He's considered to be a mid-late 2nd rounder and a couple of phantom drafts have him at our pick.

Has two feet and some breakaway pace.

Thumping kick.

A few of those ankle breaking moments gave me Dusty feels.

[Jobba]

Why not just grab 2 key forwards and Naish with a late pick?

Or 1 key forward, maybe a slider like Moir if he slides and Naish with the dud pick?

The key forwards in or around or first pick are very slim. There’s either Archer Reid who is a few seasons away and very inconsistent (and I suspect the lack of KPFs see him taken earlier than our pick), Logan Morris (more of a third tall height without the athleticism. Big and strong but not sure that’s the profile of a KPF that you draft) or possibly Calshear Dear who is linked to Hawthorn via Father/son (we had been linked early too, and I wonder if that was a wink-wink aspect of the Koschitski trade).

There will be more talented players around our first pick, so would rather we take someone who is more likely to make it at AFL level than a KPF player for the sake of a KPF player.

Though I do like Moir.

[Andyy]

Why not just grab 2 key forwards and Naish with a late pick?

Or 1 key forward, maybe a slider like Moir if he slides and Naish with the dud pick?

The key forwards in or around or first pick are very slim. There’s either Archer Reid who is a few seasons away and very inconsistent (and I suspect the lack of KPFs see him taken earlier than our pick), Logan Morris (more of a third tall height without the athleticism. Big and strong but not sure that’s the profile of a KPF that you draft) or possibly Calshear Dear who is linked to Hawthorn via Father/son (we had been linked early too, and I wonder if that was a wink-wink aspect of the Koschitski trade).

There will be more talented players around our first pick, so would rather we take someone who is more likely to make it at AFL level than a KPF player for the sake of a KPF player.

Though I do like Moir.

So we take a few more 180cm outsiders?

No thanks. But that's generally what the club tends to do.

At least 1 pick or more needs to be used on a KPF. Lots of talent slips through every year. Look at Larkey and Lewis. Taken with picks that won't even get used this year.

[Jobba]

Why not just grab 2 key forwards and Naish with a late pick?

Or 1 key forward, maybe a slider like Moir if he slides and Naish with the dud pick?

The key forwards in or around or first pick are very slim. There’s either Archer Reid who is a few seasons away and very inconsistent (and I suspect the lack of KPFs see him taken earlier than our pick), Logan Morris (more of a third tall height without the athleticism. Big and strong but not sure that’s the profile of a KPF that you draft) or possibly Calshear Dear who is linked to Hawthorn via Father/son (we had been linked early too, and I wonder if that was a wink-wink aspect of the Koschitski trade).

There will be more talented players around our first pick, so would rather we take someone who is more likely to make it at AFL level than a KPF player for the sake of a KPF player.

Though I do like Moir.

So we take a few more 180cm outsiders?

No thanks. But that's generally what the club tends to do.

At least 1 pick or more needs to be used on a KPF. Lots of talent slips through every year. Look at Larkey and Lewis. Taken with picks that won't even get used this year.

We should be taking players that have the best chance of making it at AFL level.

You go through every draft and for every Larkey or Lewis they’re eight speculative picks that don’t make it.

Take the player who has a chance of making it at AFL level regardless of position than a player that is unlikely to make it but gets selected purely because they play a KPF. To not do so is a waste of a pick, of time in development and money.

It’s like picking Liam McBean or Dean Putts over Lachie Neale.

Despite fairy tale stories, the draft is still all about statistical likelihood.