One-Eyed Richmond Forum
Football => Richmond Rant => Topic started by: one-eyed on June 07, 2012, 12:39:27 AM
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Richmond could climb into the finals at the expense of Carlton, Champion Data formula says
Mark Stevens
Herald Sun
June 07, 2012
CHAMPION Data is renowned for bringing us statistics of all kinds, from clangers to loose ball gets, but after Round 10 it has produced the stat that really counts.
Number crunchers from the AFL's official statistical crew have answered the most important question right now: Which club has the easiest run home to the finals?
The news is bad for supporters of Geelong, Essendon and Carlton.
If you barrack for Richmond or Adelaide, start doing cartwheels.
The beyond Round 10 "draw difficulty index" is based on a simple formula.
The difficulty of a club's remaining 12 games is rated on the wins and losses of their opponents from Rounds 1 to 10.
Geelong's coming opponents overall boast 71 wins and 49 losses, leaving the Cats a clear No.1 on the difficulty chart.
Essendon is at 68-52 West Coast 66-54 and Carlton and Collingwood both 65-55.
Richmond and Melbourne, which have endured torrid runs of matches against teams in the top echelon, are at the other end of the scale.
Their opponents combined have a 50-70 record.
With two expansion teams in the mix in an 18-team competition, the run home has never been more important.
The gap between easy and hard has never been wider, given so much depends on who gets GWS and Gold Coast in the run to the finals.
So who makes the top eight? Who makes the top four? And who misses out completely.
Chat live with Mark Stevens from 9.30am below
http://www.news.com.au/news/richmond-could-climb-into-the-finals-at-the-expense-of-carlton-champion-data-formula-says/story-fndv7pj3-1226386524657
With the formula for toughness in the back of the mind, Hardboiled today takes it a step further.
It is a monumental task, yes, but we have attempted to predict the result of every match between now and the end of the season.
There will be mistakes, particularly in 50-50 games, but a scan of the run home shows clear patterns ... it is not tough to see who has a dream run.
Adelaide's draw is so friendly, Hardboiled has the Crows conjuring an extraordinary 11-1 record from here.
That leaves the Crows with a 19-3 record for the season, the minor premiership and potential two home final wins and straight into a Grand Final.
Crows
Before you laugh, consider the run home: St Kilda (home), North Melbourne (away), Richmond (home), Port Adelaide (home), GWS (away), West Coast (home), Geelong (away), Essendon (home), Fremantle (home), Brisbane (away), Melbourne (away) and Gold Coast (home).
No matches against Collingwood or Hawthorn is a massive bonus and the bulk of the tougher assignments are at AAMI Stadium.
The only loss we've given the Crows is Geelong at Geelong.
Collingwood and West Coast, given their run home should finish second and third. The Pies, significantly, look likely to edge the Eagles out of the top two.
Hawthorn and Essendon will both finish on 16 wins under Hardboiled crystal ball. How significant might the Bombers' loss to Melbourne be?
The double chance could come down to percentage - and Hawthorn, given its easier run to finals might just overtake the Bombers in that area.
It looks as if 13 is the lucky number for finals aspirants this year. By our reckoning, the tried and true 12 wins won't be enough.
That is bad news for Carlton, which looks destined to finish 12-10.
We have the Blues losing their next four - against Geelong, West Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood - before hitting back with five wins in a row against North Melbourne, the Bulldogs, Richmond (in a 50-50), Sydney and Brisbane.
But that may not be enough - losses to Essendon and St Kilda in their final three matches would leave the Blues at 12-10 and finishing in the region of 9th-11th.
Richmond, even accounting for us giving the Tigers a loss in that 50-50 game against the Blues, has been pencilled in to win eight of its final 12.
That gives the Tigers 13 wins. They are in.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/richmond-could-climb-into-the-finals-at-the-expense-of-carlton-champion-data-formula-says/story-e6frg1x3-1226386524657
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Where's the 'like' button. :lol
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Essendon miss 8 8)
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Essendon miss 8 8)
Don't think so but please, please, please! :pray
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Essendon miss 8 8)
Don't think so but please, please, please! :pray
I reckon the saints could push in playing the way they are...
In that case they can replace bombres I'll glad take the filth's spot
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bombers have had a really soft draw til now, im sure they will begin their slide, lets pray all the way out of the 8
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They ran a poll on SEN
Will Carlton Make the finals?
Results:
Yes: 3
No :2
Who cares: 8,345,567,211
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Where's the 'like' button. :lol
Owl Likes this post
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Here's the full ladder prediciton ...
CHAMPION DATA'S DRAW DIFFICULTY ROUND 11 ONWARDS
(From toughest to easiest, based on number of wins and losses from Rounds 1-10 by upcoming opponents)
Geelong 71 wins-49 losses (+22)
Essendon 68-52 (+16)
West Coast 66-54 (+12)
Carlton 65-55 (+10)
Collingwood 65-55 (+10)
W Bulldogs 64-56 (+8)
Pt Adelaide 62-58 (+4)
Sydney 62-58 (+4
Gold Coast 61-59 (+2)
Hawthorn 60-60 (0)
North Melb 59-61 (-2)
Brisbane 58-62 (-4)
Fremantle 57-63 (-6)
St Kilda 57-63 (-6)
GWS 54-66 (-12)
Adelaide 51-69 (-18)
Melbourne 50-70 (-20)
Richmond 50-70 (-20)
HARDBOILED'S PREDICTED FINAL LADDER
1. ADELAIDE 19-3
2. COLLINGWOOD 18-4
3. WEST COAST 17-5
4. HAWTHORN 16-6
5. ESSENDON 16-6
6. SYDNEY 15-7
7. GEELONG 13-9
8. RICHMOND 13-9
9. CARLTON 12-10
10. ST KILDA 12-10
11. FREMANTLE 12-10
12. NTH MELB 8-14
13. W BULLDOGS 8-14
14. PORT ADELAIDE 7-15
15. BRISBANE 6-16
16. MELBOURNE 4-18
17. GOLD COAST 1-21
18. GWS GIANTS 1-21
(Predicted final win-loss records in brackets)
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/richmond-could-climb-into-the-finals-at-the-expense-of-carlton-champion-data-formula-says/story-e6frg1x3-1226386524657
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There's a long ways to go in the season so let's not get ahead of ourselves please!
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Essendon 2nd last round shapes up to an enourmous game. Essendon win, they keep Top 4 alive. Tigers win, almost assures top 8.
Full House.
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bombers have had a really soft draw til now, im sure they will begin their slide, lets pray all the way out of the 8
stuffen oath
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Essendon 2nd last round shapes up to an enourmous game. Essendon win, they keep Top 4 alive. Tigers win, almost assures top 8.
Full House.
Long way to go boys but I have pencilled in this fixture as a must for us. The game will be a live one for both clubs I feel and season defining.
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I am drooling of dismantling a depleted carlton and leaving a mental scar on them that will reverberate well into the next stuffing century.
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I am drooling of dismantling a depleted carlton and leaving a mental scar on them that will reverberate well into the next stuffing century.
:birthday. :santa
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Carltank will win tonight.
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Carltank will win tonight.
Agree
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stuff i hate seeing these idiots win. The more is see the Cats play the more i feel we had those pricks the other month.
they are nothing like they were last year
the only positive is cats are on the same points as them so its not that bad.
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Cats up by a goal a 3/4 time. Sheesh it'll be hilarious if the Blues get rolled after they came out all guns blazing in the first quarter and should've put Geelong away. Collo had a pretty good first half but drifted out of the game in the 3rd qtr.
ps. one of the worst displays of umpiring tonight especially that first half time.
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Puss Puss Puss Puss - Cmon Cats
I aint buyin this take the Bloose spot in the 8 crap but I tell ya what payback is a bish all those Bloose supporters I owe will cop it in spades.
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ch-ch-choookkee
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Think we will pump West Coast next.
http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/round-11-carlton-v-geelong-game-day-thread.955669/page-18#post-24483861
Lol... delusional to the fact they just choked... and are traveling to Perth in 6 days.
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Puss Puss Puss Puss - Cmon Cats
I aint buyin this take the Bloose spot in the 8 crap but I tell ya what payback is a bish all those Bloose supporters I owe will cop it in spades.
Fair enough, and I think the same about owing them.
Thing is after this week, cats are 7-4, blues are 6-5, saints want to win tommorow and we want to win as well to be 6-5.
Even if we win unless we win by 60pts or more well still be out of the 8. Saints will get up tommorow and take blues place geelong stay in. One of those earlier wins would have us in already
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Now we must make the most of the Blues loss tomorrow and beat Freo to draw level with them on wins.
Anyone else think Judd isn't the Judd of old this year? He appears to have lost that explosiveness and quick acceleration he used to have.
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Kids preventing sleep will do that to ya ;D
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We need to keep improving our %. We are still well below any team currently sitting in the 8.
We need to bury both Freo and GWS
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Anyone else think Judd isn't the Judd of old this year? He appears to have lost that explosiveness and quick acceleration he used to have.
There's been a fair bit of speculation about this on the "around the grounds" thread on Punt Road End. The folding green ambassador is closing in fast on 30, and the prospect of holding up another cup seems to be diminishing :clapping
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We need to keep improving our %. We are still well below any team currently sitting in the 8.
We need to bury both Freo and GWS
As long as we keep winning then % will take care of itself. The Blues have dropped to 115% (+139) compared to our 110% (+91). So we need to make up roughly 50 points in the next two games to bypass them. The Blues have West Coast away next week after only a 6-day break which helps. Likewise the Saints have a tough road trip to Adelaide after playing the Suns.
Geel (7-4) Carl (6-5) St K (5-5) Rich (5-5)
R11: Suns Freo
R12: bye Eagles (away) Adel (away) GWS
R13: Syd (away) bye bye bye
As long as we win the next two games we should be in the Eight by the Bye.
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Anyone else think Judd isn't the Judd of old this year? He appears to have lost that explosiveness and quick acceleration he used to have.
The folding green ambassador is closing in fast on 30, and the prospect of holding up another cup seems to be diminishing :clapping
Yep it looks like the wear and tear of his career is starting to show. Not having Murphy and Carrazzo around either means he can't feed off them. He sure ain't getting any help from the likes of McLean and the second stringers. Carlton fall away badly after their best 22. The injuries have exposed their lack of depth and Ratten has no plan B.
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Eat shyte essendon
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Anyone else think Judd isn't the Judd of old this year? He appears to have lost that explosiveness and quick acceleration he used to have.
The folding green ambassador is closing in fast on 30, and the prospect of holding up another cup seems to be diminishing :clapping
Yep it looks like the wear and tear of his career is starting to show. Not having Murphy and Carrazzo around either means he can't feed off them. He sure ain't getting any help from the likes of McLean and the second stringers. Carlton fall away badly after their best 22. The injuries have exposed their lack of depth and Ratten has no plan B.
Judd has seemed to of fell away this year and now without Murphy there he would be getting more attention. They played better against Geelong than previous rounds lately but there draw is tough for the next couple of weeks. If sides like Saints, Fremantle and us(Richmond) keep winning it might keep them out of the finals.
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Crawford still has us making the finals http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/shane-crawford-predicts-collingwood-will-win-2012-flag/story-fn82yfty-1226389962831
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lol beat the blues? He has to be kidding!
We are scared of the blues.
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I know the draw can never be fair unless they made the season 17 games, but how do the Saints get to play GC Suns for the 2nd time this season, then next week the Kangaroos have them for the second time this season and we don't get them till round 16?
The Saints have had a combined 187 points winning margin over them and GC Suns didn't score over 50 in either game.
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lol beat the blues? He has to be kidding!
We are scared of the blues.
this season WILL be a great year for us if we beat Carlscum round 18.
Ontop of beating the Swans, Saints & Dawks (fantastic win). Getting so close to cats, bombers, pies & WC. Alot of positives to take into next year but still realistic to know alot of work preseason to take the next level so we win those games.
Something to build on for next year even if we don't make the finals which I think is most likely we won't.
Beat the blues and knock 'em out of the finals this year i'd be pretty happy :birthday :santa
But next year i'd expect nothing less than finals footy and a win in round 1 against the scum.
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lol beat the blues? He has to be kidding!
We are scared of the blues.
this season WILL be a great year for us if we beat Carlscum round 18.
Ontop of beating the Swans, Saints & Dawks (fantastic win). Getting so close to cats, bombers, pies & WC. Alot of positives to take into next year but still realistic to know alot of work preseason to take the next level so we win those games.
Something to build on for next year even if we don't make the finals which I think is most likely we won't.
Beat the blues and knock 'em out of the finals this year i'd be pretty happy :birthday :santa
But next year i'd expect nothing less than finals footy and a win in round 1 against the scum.
No one except Ramps the troll could argue with that post :thumbsup
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If we beat the blues in round 18 we will play finals.
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Try Hard Tiger is in full flight tonight :lol
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lol beat the blues? He has to be kidding!
We are scared of the blues.
^
This.
They could lose every game coming into round 18 and they would be so mentally comfortable and us the opposite they would win easy again.
You can just see sh|trucks like Hamson Scotland Waite just lift and believe they are better than what they are against us.
Our Biggest test this year easily, we need to get over this....
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Try Hard Tiger is in full flight tonight :lol
Now whose touchy biiiiiiiii-atcha :wub :blah
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Onya Try Hard ... you been doin some good work lately :lol
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We wont be in the 8 but if my maths is correct we will be above the cheats (blues) if we beat the GWS by 51 pts.
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We wont be in the 8 but if my maths is correct we will be above the cheats (blues) if we beat the GWS by 51 pts.
Taking our rightful position hey?
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Looking ahead to R18, it is very possible that both clubs will be on the same point or within 4 points of each other by the time we next meet.
Shapes as a monster R18 clash.
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Good to see saints will lose tonight, would be great if the crows did us a favor and ran away with it with a solid 9-10 goal margin giving their percentage a smashing :thumbsup
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Good to see saints will lose tonight, would be great if the crows did us a favor and ran away with it with a solid 9-10 goal margin giving their percentage a smashing :thumbsup
Works out great too that Carlton, Saints and us share a bye weekend. Just need Freo to lose to the Bombers next week and we'll be all square.
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Saints are on 121% (+226 pts), Carlton 113% (+129), while we are on 108% (+79). So we would need to win today by 50+ pts to jump ahead the Blues and by about 150+ pts lol to get into the Eight tonight.
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Damn that means we will be 9th for a full week if we win by 50+.
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I am drooling of dismantling a depleted carlton and leaving a mental scar on them that will reverberate well into the next stuffing century.
When are they expecting Murphy back?
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Bloody aints, stormed back and almost did the unthinkable in the last. Hopefully we can have a big win today and at least it ourselves thereabouts percentage wise.
Looking at the ladder, unless essendon or Sydney have a horror run soon, it looks like it's stk, Carl, freo and us battling for 8th. Can't see hawks and Geelong missing
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Four into one just doesn't go for eighth spot on AFL ladder
Glenn McFarlane
From: Sunday Herald Sun
June 17, 2012
ST KILDA, Carlton and Richmond will head to this week's break uneasy about their ladder positions - eighth, ninth and 10th.
They each sit on six wins and six losses, with only 13 percentage points separating them.
The Saints admit they are tired due to a series of six-day breaks and interstate trips; the Blues are battered and bruised with form and fitness; and the Tigers have limped to the bye off the back of a loss to Fremantle and a less-than-flattering effort against GWS yesterday.
Just below the trio sits the Dockers, on the same number of wins (six), tellingly with an extra game in hand, but a far inferior percentage.
That's how tight it is in the middle stretches. And it is going to get a hell of a lot tighter, with realistically only one of these four teams likely to be in the finals.
So is it any wonder that Saints coach Scott Watters was not copping talk about "honourable losses" in the wake of the club's four-point loss to Adelaide on Friday night.
A win would have been absolute gold; a loss just keeps them in the pack.
Twelve matches into Watters' first season as coach, the Saints are a very different team to the one that played under Ross Lyon.
Fans would be loving the fact that the shackles have come off, with the team going from 12th last year in terms of points for (86 per game) to the fourth-ranked side (105.8 ).
That's in keeping with Watters' pre-season pledge for a more attacking bent. The new faces that have come into the team have helped. They are faster, more attacking and higher scoring as a side.
But on the flip side, they have gone from the fourth-ranked side in points against (76 per game) last year to the 10th this season (87).
It's far from disastrous as they have only conceded 100 points on four occasions this season - with one of them coming against the Crows.
But if the Saints want to make the eight this season they might need to tighten up - just a little.
Unfortunately, they seem to be just lacking one big defender.
In the end, that elusive finals berth might all come down to Round 23, when the Saints and the Blues square off at Etihad Stadium.
If the Dockers - or even the Tigers - don't lock one in first.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/four-into-one-just-doesnt-go-for-eighth-spot-on-afl-ladder/story-fn7si1k5-1226397621645
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With Essendon winning last night you'd reckon the top 6 are safe - Pies, Swans, Eagles, Bombers Crows and Hawks.
So there's two spots up for grabs for teams 7th to 12th. If North causes an unlikely upset tomorrow they'll be on six wins as well.
Geelong (7-5) St Kilda (6-6) Carlton (6-6) Richmond (6-6) Fremantle (6-6) North (6-6)
R14 Port (KP) North Hawthorn Adelaide (away) Collingwood (away) St Kilda
R15 Gold Coast (away) Essendon Collingwood Melbourne Bulldogs West Coast (Hobart)
R16 Collingwood Brisbane (away) North Gold Coast (Cairns) Melbourne (away) Carlton
R17 Essendon Sydney (away) Bulldogs North GWS Richmond
R18 Adelaide (KP) Bulldogs Richmond Carlton Port (away) Melbourne
R19 Hawthorn Collingwood Sydney Brisbane (away) West Coast Bulldogs
R20 West Coast (away) Melbourne Brisbane Bulldogs Adelaide (away) Essendon
R21 St Kilda Geelong Essendon Fremantle (away) Richmond Collingwood
R22 Bulldogs (KP) GWS Gold Coast (away) Essendon North(away) Fremantle
R23 Sydney (KP) Carlton St Kilda Port Melbourne GWS (away)
vs top 6 6 3 4 2 3 3
8-pointers 1 3 3 3 2 4
vs bottom 6 3 4 3 5 5 3
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
Ch 7 last night said the flu had swept through the Crows camp and they've brought two emergencies over with them just in case. Ninth Melbourne most likely will still lose though :pray.
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
Ch 7 last night said the flu had swept through the Crows camp and they've brought two emergencies over with them just in case. Ninth Melbourne most likely will still lose though :pray.
I have tipped nought, i have that feeling. if thats the case im sure im working in the canteen the week of our game and give em all a dose of quik-lax ;)
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
Ch 7 last night said the flu had swept through the Crows camp and they've brought two emergencies over with them just in case. Ninth Melbourne most likely will still lose though :pray.
I have tipped nought, i have that feeling. if thats the case im sure im working in the canteen the week of our game and give em all a dose of quik-lax ;)
Or a raw sausage roll or two :chuck :chuck
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North have beaten the Crows. So that's 5 teams now all on 6 wins with Geelong only a game ahead with inferior %. This must be one of the tightest seasons ever.
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Teams like stuffing nought get surprise 4 points against crows and we continue to shoot ourselves in the foot by dropping games against bloody freo and missing out on % against GWS
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Adelaide will pump us now.
Fanks Norf.
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N0rt :banghead
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
You do realise, I hope, that this is all your fault.
:cheers
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
You do realise, I hope, that this is all your fault.
:cheers
I'm an idiot, I predicted the Norf win and I backed Adelaide..
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Norf will cause an upset just to pee Adelaide off for next week.
Norf - forever annoying the RFC.
You bustard Mrakov >:(
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That's the second time nought/nothing of melbourne have stirred the pot a week before we play a team. Can you imagine them making finals?? Their best against "a fit" top 8 side 60 pt plus flogging. Best player is boomer harvey, have 5 members pathetic
Where tuckerbug?? Ffs cheer me up
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That's the second time nought/nothing of melbourne have stirred the pot a week before we play a team. Can you imagine them making finals?? Their best against "a fit" top 8 side 60 pt plus flogging. Best player is boomer harvey, have 5 members pathetic
Where tuckerbug?? Ffs cheer me up
Will never forget the countless milestone games that they have got up in against us like the Jason Mcartney comeback game etc
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Gotta keep winning.
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That's the second time nought/nothing of melbourne have stirred the pot a week before we play a team. Can you imagine them making finals?? Their best against "a fit" top 8 side 60 pt plus flogging. Best player is boomer harvey, have 5 members pathetic
Where tuckerbug?? Ffs cheer me up
Will never forget the countless milestone games that they have got up in against us like the Jason Mcartney comeback game etc
Bunch of flogs, don't remind me of that game please
This is why in another thread I had put nth down to beat us the week after we come back from a hard game in cairns. Jees not only do they get a dream fixture, they get fed all the table scraps too. Would love to see em finish ninth again
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That's the second time nought/nothing of melbourne have stirred the pot a week before we play a team. Can you imagine them making finals?? Their best against "a fit" top 8 side 60 pt plus flogging. Best player is boomer harvey, have 5 members pathetic
Where tuckerbug?? Ffs cheer me up
Will never forget the countless milestone games that they have got up in against us like the Jason Mcartney comeback game etc
Bunch of flogs, don't remind me of that game please
This is why in another thread I had put nth down to beat us the week after we come back from a hard game in cairns. Jees not only do they get a dream fixture, they get fed all the table scraps too. Would love to see em finish ninth again
Imagine we had their draw..
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becoming a real dog fight between 7 sides for 7th and 8th.
have done the predictor with several different scenarios and i like most think 13 wins will be needed.that means we must win 7 of our last 10. if we cop adelaide on the rebound apparently the whole side was flu riddled this week that will mean we have to win 7 of our last 9.
the amazing thing is a few scenarios have 13 wins not being enough will get real interesting if sides start putting the que in the rack and who plays em. its very likely percentage could play a key role.
the last rnd could well be as good as any finals. geelong v sydney could be for a place in the 8 for both or even top 4 for syd.
haw play wce hawthorn could be playing for a top 4 finish and wce a home final.
carlton play stkilda it could be for a finals berth for both teams.
ess v coll it could be for top spot and in ess case top 4.
the way i read it carlton and geelong are the 7th 8th sides but they are the vulnerable sides to make the 8. i have both with at least 13 wins in carltons case that is allowing for players to get back from injury.
hot on their heels are us north freo stkilda and a smokey in brisbane.
we play freo, north, brisbane and carlton they are must win 8 point games.
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Gotta keep winning.
That's the bottom line isn't it. Can't rely on other results, just win our games and we will make it.
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Gotta keep winning.
That's the bottom line isn't it. Can't rely on other results, just win our games and we will make it.
Yep that's it in a nutshell
We cannot control what other teams do, we can't control their results
All we have control over is our games and how we play etc.
It sounds cliched but we control our own destiny no one else's but our own. That's all we need to focus on
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If they got the flu, they still gonna be crap, especially after that game. Hopefully North caught it off of them too.
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On the way home from Harvey Norms chaddy tonight I was listening to Finey on SEN, he was talking about us and said over the last 5-10 years with the footy we've been playing we would easily make the finals. But due to the competiveness of the ladder this year we and another may miss out and it was dissapointing.
I would have just said its our luck, if it was a top 9 and not 8 we would probably end up 10th.
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On the way home from Harvey Norms chaddy tonight I was listening to Finey on SEN, he was talking about us and said over the last 5-10 years with the footy we've been playing we would easily make the finals. But due to the competiveness of the ladder this year we and another may miss out and it was dissapointing.
I would have just said its our luck, if it was a top 9 and not 8 we would probably end up 10th.
That may be true but if one of Carlton, Freo or Saints get that 8th position as I expect them to do then so should we.
No excuses easy draw now while others don't
No finals with minimal injuries, i would consider this year a fail
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Would have thought Norf beating Adelaide is a good thing. Form is form...Adelaide's is now poo.
If Tippett is out it helps. They've had a soft as butter draw so far. Everyone jizzed over them with the Blues win but have Carlton won since?
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With Brisbane in the mix now, we have four 8-point games on the run home. So destiny is in our own hands.
Geelong (8-5) St Kilda (6-7) Carlton (6-7) Richmond (6-7) Fremantle (6-7) North (7-6) Brisbane (6-7)
R15 Gold Coast (away) Essendon Collingwood Melbourne Bulldogs West Coast (Hobart) Sydney (away)
R16 Collingwood Brisbane (away) North Gold Coast (Cairns) Melbourne (away) Carlton St Kilda
R17 Essendon Sydney (away) Bulldogs North GWS Richmond Gold Coast (away)
R18 Adelaide (KP) Bulldogs Richmond Carlton Port (away) Melbourne West Coast (away)
R19 Hawthorn Collingwood Sydney Brisbane (away) West Coast Bulldogs Richmond
R20 West Coast (away) Melbourne Brisbane Bulldogs Adelaide (away) Essendon Carlton (away)
R21 St Kilda Geelong Essendon Fremantle (away) Richmond Collingwood Adelaide
R22 Bulldogs (KP) GWS Gold Coast (away) Essendon North(away) Fremantle Port Adelaide (away)
R23 Sydney (KP) Carlton St Kilda Port Melbourne GWS (away) Bulldogs
vs top 6 6 3 3 1 2 3 3
8-pointers 1 3 4 4 2 3 3
vs bottom 5 2 3 2 4 5 3 3
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They are constantly talking about 'blocks of 4' at the club. Well in this block we need two 10 goal plus wins against Melb an GC. Then we must win by any margin against North and Carlton.
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Freo will be 11-7.
We can't afford to be upset by any of the bottom 4 sides. Brisbane and Nought I would have pencilled in for wins, but they have both hit some form. We should smack Carlton in their current form, especially if they lose the next 2, they will be pretty down and out. Freo away could be tricky, the Bumbers might have packed up for the season if they have locked away a top 4, or can only finish 5-8 by the time they play us.
They're all winnable, but I can't see us winning 9 straight.
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Should win enough games to make the 8 with that run home. Starts this week, we win (like we should) and we will be in the 8 and won't fall back out.
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Freo will be 11-7.
We can't afford to be upset by any of the bottom 4 sides. Brisbane and Nought I would have pencilled in for wins, but they have both hit some form. We should smack Carlton in their current form, especially if they lose the next 2, they will be pretty down and out. Freo away could be tricky, the Bumbers might have packed up for the season if they have locked away a top 4, or can only finish 5-8 by the time they play us.
They're all winnable, but I can't see us winning 9 straight.
If we win 9 straight (this year) I will donate one of my cars to the club :shh word!
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Freo will be 11-7.
We can't afford to be upset by any of the bottom 4 sides. Brisbane and Nought I would have pencilled in for wins, but they have both hit some form. We should smack Carlton in their current form, especially if they lose the next 2, they will be pretty down and out. Freo away could be tricky, the Bumbers might have packed up for the season if they have locked away a top 4, or can only finish 5-8 by the time they play us.
They're all winnable, but I can't see us winning 9 straight.
If we win 9 straight (this year) I will donate one of my cars to the club :shh word!
Does that include the 1975 purple Valiant?
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From Mark Stevens' article in today's Herald-Sun...
THE "REAL" LADDER
Teams still in contention for the finals and their record against teams currently in the top eight
1. Collingwood 4-1
2. Sydney 4-1
3. West Coast 3-2
4. Hawthorn 3-3
5. Essendon 2-2
6. Adelaide 2-3
7. North Melbourne 2-4
8. Richmond 2-5
9. Geelong 1-4
10. St Kilda 1-4
11. Carlton 1-5
12. Brisbane Lions 1-5
13. Fremantle 1-6
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/afl/expert-opinion/geelongs-poor-record-against-top-sides-exposed-in-ladder-that-matters/story-fncqi979-1226417097939
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Carlton now have a percentage of 108.7 (+102 pts) compared to our 106.2 (+72 pts). So first of all we need to win today to get to 7 wins. If we win by 6 goals or more we'll still be able to jump ahead of the Blues.
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This is why some of us 'sook' about dropping very winnable games and not boosting percentage against the leagues whipping boys, other teams like Carlton start getting some unexpected wins, north are also 20pts ahead of the eagles ::) so to all those ppl who were calmly saying after the Adelaide game, big deal, next week we'll be in the 8 bc everyone will lose and we will win, stuff off :wallywink
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;D
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This is why some of us 'sook' about dropping very winnable games and not boosting percentage against the leagues whipping boys, other teams like Carlton start getting some unexpected wins, north are also 20pts ahead of the eagles ::) so to all those ppl who were calmly saying after the Adelaide game, big deal, next week we'll be in the 8 bc everyone will lose and we will win, stuff off :wallywink
:clapping
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This is why some of us 'sook' about dropping very winnable games and not boosting percentage against the leagues whipping boys, other teams like Carlton start getting some unexpected wins, north are also 20pts ahead of the eagles ::) so to all those ppl who were calmly saying after the Adelaide game, big deal, next week we'll be in the 8 bc everyone will lose and we will win, stuff off :wallywink
:clapping
:clapping :clapping
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Carlton still 8th and we are 9th again. Wasted a million opportunities today. A shocking performance only slightly abated by the fact we picked up the win.
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If we kicked straight we would have won by 50+ and been in the 8 tonight.
Blew our chance.
Imagine if it was round 23 and we missed the finals like this.
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I've said this before and will say it again
Forget about finals. If it by some small chance great rejoice, but this is reality and the best we can hope is denying the Bombers a top 4 and blues a top 8 spot
Today was a rubbish win. Writing was on the wall in the GWS game but the Ao called experts blamed the weather.
Newman another game which supports the argument for Cotch being captain
He has become a liability. Maybe he can be a real leader and give it Cotch now
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I've said this before and will say it again
Forget about finals. If it by some small chance great rejoice, but this is reality and the best we can hope is denying the Bombers a top 4 and blues a top 8 spot
Today was a rubbish win. Writing was on the wall in the GWS game but the Ao called experts blamed the weather.
Newman another game which supports the argument for Cotch being captain
He has become a liability. Maybe he can be a real leader and give it Cotch now
lol.....if we beat Carlton and Essenon we will make the finals....Fact.
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If if if
Current form is pretty woeful
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If if if
Current form is pretty woeful
Big if I know but Daniel is saying that's the best we can hope for and if that's the best then we make the finals.....fact ;)
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pedantic prick :lol
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Just saying :shh
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If if if
Current form is pretty woeful
Big if I know but Daniel is saying that's the best we can hope for and if that's the best then we make the finals.....fact ;)
probably couldve worded it a little better. lol
I agree 100% with you, but on todays form can you really see us beating Nought, Bris Away, Buldogs amongst a few others.
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Agree but in saying that we could have just as easily flogged them today. A small turn in form and anything could happen :gotigers
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We need to find a KILLER INSTINCT!
I thought the Hawthorn win was a sign we'd learnt to put sides away in the last and run over them however today it was back to going through the motions in the last. I've got to ask whether the runner was sent out after we had found out North had lost )?) as that should have got everyone back on their bike to try and win by 6 goals plus to jump above Carlton on the ladder. Instead nothing changed and we kept playing as though we were asleep in the last :banghead.
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We need to find a KILLER INSTINCT!
I thought the Hawthorn win was a sign we'd learnt to put sides away in the last and run over them however today it was back to going through the motions in the last. I've got to ask whether the runner was sent out after we had found out North had lost )?) as that should have got everyone back on their bike to try and win by 6 goals plus to jump above Carlton on the ladder. Instead nothing changed and we kept playing as though we were asleep in the last :banghead.
correct :thumbsup
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Not when ur krap!
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We need to find a KILLER INSTINCT!
I thought the Hawthorn win was a sign we'd learnt to put sides away in the last and run over them however today it was back to going through the motions in the last. I've got to ask whether the runner was sent out after we had found out North had lost )?) as that should have got everyone back on their bike to try and win by 6 goals plus to jump above Carlton on the ladder. Instead nothing changed and we kept playing as though we were asleep in the last :banghead.
lack of scoreboard pressure is the big problem. we dominated them early on but at 1/4 time they would have felt they were still in with a chance, as you should 5 goals down. if that's 7 or 8 goals down it's a totally different mindset, and given the easy goals missed we could easily have had that sort of break on them.
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Whilst we cannot play at the intensity we had been in the first few months you cannot play as poorly as we have either.
The positive thing is we won and to me it seems the better the opposition the bigger the challenge.
Hence our more intense efforts during the first half of the season.
Whilst obvious we still have improvement we have consistent this year something we haven't been in generations and that in itself is a sure sign of improvement regardless of what the doomsdayers would like to believe.
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lack of scoreboard pressure is the big problem. we dominated them early on but at 1/4 time they would have felt they were still in with a chance, as you should 5 goals down. if that's 7 or 8 goals down it's a totally different mindset, and given the easy goals missed we could easily have had that sort of break on them.
True al. As you say if we had kicked straight the game would've been over at 1/4 time. Not to mention if Rance hadn't stuffed up kicking into the man on the mark the Dees would've been held scoreless for the quarter which would've been extra demoralising for them. We're not reflecting our general play dominant periods on the scoreboard as we should.
Saints winning last night makes it four teams on 7 wins. Freo should win today over the Dogs to make that 5 teams. Just an extraordinary close season. We've just got to try and fight our way through this trough in form (beat GC well next week) and hopefully find a renewed spark and some confidence by the time we face North and Carlton. The past few weeks of one quarter of decent footy followed by 3 ordinary quarters ain't going to cut it.
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Just on Rance, he was better yesterday than he has been over the last 3 weeks. Hopefully he can get back to his form earlier in the year.
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Just on Rance, he was better yesterday than he has been over the last 3 weeks. Hopefully he can get back to his form earlier in the year.
At one stage he started sliding down a forwards back and quickly propped himself back up again. He has obviously been told not to go to ground :lol Batchelor need the same message.
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Just on Rance, he was better yesterday than he has been over the last 3 weeks. Hopefully he can get back to his form earlier in the year.
At one stage he started sliding down a forwards back and quickly propped himself back up again. He has obviously been told not to go to ground :lol Batchelor need the same message.
Yep Melbourne scored twice yesterday when Batch went to ground.
Love the way Batch plays and love the way he can take an overhead mark and keep his eyes on the ball but it is critical he keeps his feet when the ball is on the ground.
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lack of scoreboard pressure is the big problem. we dominated them early on but at 1/4 time they would have felt they were still in with a chance, as you should 5 goals down. if that's 7 or 8 goals down it's a totally different mindset, and given the easy goals missed we could easily have had that sort of break on them.
True al. As you say if we had kicked straight the game would've been over at 1/4 time. Not to mention if Rance hadn't stuffed up kicking into the man on the mark........
That was O'Hanlon.
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R15 wrap: St Kilda and Carlton score unexpected wins against top 6 sides. The remaining results were as expected.
Geelong (9-5) St Kilda (7-7) Carlton (7-7) Richmond (7-7) Fremantle (7-7) North (7-7) Brisbane (6-8)
R16 Collingwood Brisbane (away) North Gold Coast (Cairns) Melbourne (away) Carlton St Kilda
R17 Essendon Sydney (away) Bulldogs North GWS Richmond Gold Coast (away)
R18 Adelaide (KP) Bulldogs Richmond Carlton Port (away) Melbourne West Coast (away)
R19 Hawthorn Collingwood Sydney Brisbane (away) West Coast Bulldogs Richmond
R20 West Coast (away) Melbourne Brisbane Bulldogs Adelaide (away) Essendon Carlton (away)
R21 St Kilda Geelong Essendon Fremantle (away) Richmond Collingwood Adelaide
R22 Bulldogs (KP) GWS Gold Coast (away) Essendon North(away) Fremantle Port Adelaide (away)
R23 Sydney (KP) Carlton St Kilda Port Melbourne GWS (away) Bulldogs
vs top 6 6 2 2 1 2 2 2
8-pointers 1 3 4 4 2 3 3
vs bottom 5 1 3 2 3 4 3 3
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Nice little "8" pointer this week with Carlton playing N0rt
Think the Saints -v- Bris game is an important one as well...Go Lions ;D
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Just on Rance, he was better yesterday than he has been over the last 3 weeks. Hopefully he can get back to his form earlier in the year.
At one stage he started sliding down a forwards back and quickly propped himself back up again. He has obviously been told not to go to ground :lol Batchelor need the same message.
Yep Melbourne scored twice yesterday when Batch went to ground.
Love the way Batch plays and love the way he can take an overhead mark and keep his eyes on the ball but it is critical he keeps his feet when the ball is on the ground.
not so much him going to ground though a worry, its been the lack of cleanness or another way to put it fumbles he hasnt been one touch and hes suffered from this most of the yr.
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shockers might be the one people
forget about.
nice run home, their % might be of
concern but if they do what we are
unable to do (punish lowly teams)
they might sneak in.