Richmond could climb into the finals at the expense of Carlton, Champion Data formula says Mark Stevens
Herald Sun
June 07, 2012 CHAMPION Data is renowned for bringing us statistics of all kinds, from clangers to loose ball gets, but after Round 10 it has produced the stat that really counts.
Number crunchers from the AFL's official statistical crew have answered the most important question right now: Which club has the easiest run home to the finals?
The news is bad for supporters of Geelong, Essendon and Carlton.
If you barrack for Richmond or Adelaide, start doing cartwheels.
The beyond Round 10 "draw difficulty index" is based on a simple formula.
The difficulty of a club's remaining 12 games is rated on the wins and losses of their opponents from Rounds 1 to 10.
Geelong's coming opponents overall boast 71 wins and 49 losses, leaving the Cats a clear No.1 on the difficulty chart.
Essendon is at 68-52 West Coast 66-54 and Carlton and Collingwood both 65-55.
Richmond and Melbourne, which have endured torrid runs of matches against teams in the top echelon, are at the other end of the scale.
Their opponents combined have a 50-70 record.
With two expansion teams in the mix in an 18-team competition, the run home has never been more important.
The gap between easy and hard has never been wider, given so much depends on who gets GWS and Gold Coast in the run to the finals.
So who makes the top eight? Who makes the top four? And who misses out completely.
Chat live with Mark Stevens from 9.30am below
http://www.news.com.au/news/richmond-could-climb-into-the-finals-at-the-expense-of-carlton-champion-data-formula-says/story-fndv7pj3-1226386524657With the formula for toughness in the back of the mind, Hardboiled today takes it a step further.
It is a monumental task, yes, but we have attempted to predict the result of every match between now and the end of the season.
There will be mistakes, particularly in 50-50 games, but a scan of the run home shows clear patterns ... it is not tough to see who has a dream run.
Adelaide's draw is so friendly, Hardboiled has the Crows conjuring an extraordinary 11-1 record from here.
That leaves the Crows with a 19-3 record for the season, the minor premiership and potential two home final wins and straight into a Grand Final.
Crows
Before you laugh, consider the run home: St Kilda (home), North Melbourne (away), Richmond (home), Port Adelaide (home), GWS (away), West Coast (home), Geelong (away), Essendon (home), Fremantle (home), Brisbane (away), Melbourne (away) and Gold Coast (home).
No matches against Collingwood or Hawthorn is a massive bonus and the bulk of the tougher assignments are at AAMI Stadium.
The only loss we've given the Crows is Geelong at Geelong.
Collingwood and West Coast, given their run home should finish second and third. The Pies, significantly, look likely to edge the Eagles out of the top two.
Hawthorn and Essendon will both finish on 16 wins under Hardboiled crystal ball. How significant might the Bombers' loss to Melbourne be?
The double chance could come down to percentage - and Hawthorn, given its easier run to finals might just overtake the Bombers in that area.
It looks as if 13 is the lucky number for finals aspirants this year. By our reckoning, the tried and true 12 wins won't be enough.
That is bad news for Carlton, which looks destined to finish 12-10.
We have the Blues losing their next four - against Geelong, West Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood - before hitting back with five wins in a row against North Melbourne, the Bulldogs, Richmond (in a 50-50), Sydney and Brisbane.
But that may not be enough - losses to Essendon and St Kilda in their final three matches would leave the Blues at 12-10 and finishing in the region of 9th-11th.
Richmond, even accounting for us giving the Tigers a loss in that 50-50 game against the Blues, has been pencilled in to win eight of its final 12.
That gives the Tigers 13 wins. They are in.
http://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/afl/richmond-could-climb-into-the-finals-at-the-expense-of-carlton-champion-data-formula-says/story-e6frg1x3-1226386524657
