Contoversial Topic #1 - Global Warming & Carbon Emissions Trading

[1965]

Looks like Labor is giving Tony an escape clause.

I don't think he wants a double dissolution.

Too many voters are starting to realise what an incompetent lot they voted into power.


Bill Shorten backs scrapping of carbon tax, on condition of replacement ETS
Date November 1, 2013 - 3:02PM
Jonathan Swan

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has unveiled Labor's position on climate change, saying he will offer to “terminate” the carbon tax on the condition that Tony Abbott introduces an emissions trading scheme.

In an offer the Prime Minister is certain to reject, Mr Shorten said Labor would propose an amendment to the Coalition's bills to repeal the price on carbon.

The amendment would let Mr Abbott abolish the carbon tax immediately but only on the basis that the Coalition moves to an emissions trading scheme.

Advertisement If the Prime Minister rejects the offer, Mr Shorten said Labor would oppose the Abbott government’s repeal of the carbon legislation. In that event, Mr Abbott would have to wait until the new Senate begins in July 2014 to abolish the carbon tax.

Mr Abbott made abolishing the carbon tax the centrepiece of his successful election campaign, and there is no chance the Prime Minister will accept Labor’s offer.

Given Mr Abbott's determination to repeal the carbon tax as first order of business, Labor's ultimatum keeps the possibility alive of a double dissolution election.

But the Coalition is understood to want to avoid another poll so soon after the election, and in order for a double dissolution to happen the legislation would need to be rejected twice by the Senate.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-backs-scrapping-of-carbon-tax-on-condition-of-replacement-ets-20131101-2wqc9.html#ixzz2jQKpn300

[1965]

Even Christine Milne doesn't think Tony has the guts to call a double dissolution.


Christine Milne says the Coalition will not call a double-dissolution election to scrap carbon tax

By Naomi Woodley

Greens leader Christine Milne says Prime Minister Tony Abbott does not have the courage to call a double-dissolution election in order to scrap the carbon tax before next July.

Labor yesterday said it would support the repeal legislation if the Coalition accepted amendments that would see the introduction of an emissions-trading scheme.

Labor's position leaves some wriggle room, but not much, and there is no sign the Government will agree to its proposal.

The Coalition has a long-held policy of replacing the carbon tax with its direct-action policy, which would see the Federal Government intervene directly to businesses and homes to lower emissions.

Ms Milne has confirmed that her party will not support the Government's repeal legislation, even with Labor's proposed amendments.

"Labor isn't even clear itself on what its amendments may or may not be. It hasn't said what the target it would want in the bill to be either," she said.

"Labor knows as well as I do that we have an emissions trading scheme already legislated. It is the law in Australia; it's operating with a fixed price and will go to a flexible price.

"What people who care about climate change want to hear is that there is a serious effort in the Federal Parliament to maintain the only scheme we have which is bringing down emissions.

"And that's especially in the week when the scientists are telling us that we have to do much more than we're already doing."

Labor's stance and the Greens' ongoing resistance means, in all likelihood, the Government will have to wait until the new Senate sits next July to pass the repeal bill, or risk going to a double-dissolution election before then.

However, the prospect of a fresh election does not bother Ms Milne.

"I don't think [Tony Abbott] would have the courage to go to a double dissolution. There are plenty of governments who've had the trigger and not gone to a double dissolution and I think Tony Abbott would not have the courage to do it frankly," she said.

[Judge Roughneck]

Strongest storm recorded history

(CNN, ABC)

Coincidence

[1965]

Liberal party rhetoric shown to be the pack of lies it has always been.


Abbott shouldn't complain about a carbon tax delay

By Mungo MacCallum 
Mon 11 Nov 2013

Life turns out to be not as simple as Tony Abbott's slogans.
 
Prices were never going to plummet in the absence of a carbon tax, so the longer its scrapping is delayed, the longer this reality is kept hidden, writes Mungo MacCallum.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott and his ministers are having great fun lambasting Labor's decision to continue to oppose the repeal of the carbon tax unless it is replaced with an emissions trading scheme, as Kevin Rudd proposed before the last election.

It is, they claim, a travesty of democracy, denying the government's mandate and frustrating the clearly expressed will of the electorate. And some of them are adding privately, it is also a great relief because it enables Abbott to preserve what is left of his credibility on the issue - at least for a while longer.

Much of Abbott's railing against the great big new tax on everything has already been exposed for the bluster it always was. Whyalla has not been wiped out, the Sunday roast is still affordable, and the dreaded python squeeze has singularly failed to strangle the economy. This has been of little consequence to an electorate long inured to political hyperbole and happy to muddle along in spite of it.

But the voters still react strongly to any twinges from what Ben Chifley identified as the most sensitive part of their anatomy, the hip pocket nerve: and they do believe that the carbon tax has significantly raised their cost of living. Their budgets long ago absorbed the compensation introduced by the last government and to be continued by the present one, and they believe, rightly or wrongly, that they are doing it tough.

Obviously the most direct impact has come from increases in their electricity and gas bills, but they are also inclined to credit Abbott's endlessly repeated claim that the carbon tax has put up the cost of just about everything. And they expect that as soon as the tax is repealed, prices will fall. After all, that is what Abbott and his team promised: instant relief, and plenty of it. Electricity down by 9 per cent, gas down by 7 per cent and across the board savings totalling $550 a year for the average family - whatever that is. What do we want? More money. When do we want it? Now.

But the brutal reality is that we are unlikely to get it - at least not much of it, and not for quite a while. Yet again, life turns out to be not as simple as Tony Abbott's slogans.


http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-11-11/maccallum-carbon-tax/5082476

[Smokey]

Strongest storm recorded history

(CNN, ABC)

Coincidence

Based on what?  Not wind strength or rainfall so what is that based on?

[dwaino]

Strongest storm recorded history

(CNN, ABC)

Coincidence

Based on what?  Not wind strength or rainfall so what is that based on?

It's all subjective, but if it's not the strongest in recorded history to hit land then it would definitely be in the top 5. Many have Typhoon Tip as the strongest in history as it had a lower pressure than Haiyan (Tip was around 870 hPa and Haiyan something like 890 hPa) yet Haiyan had higher maximum winds. Tip only took about 100 lives and Haiyan is already at about 300 confirmed and expected to top 10000. Hit different regions though. Haiyan went through Leyte and Cebu (popular tourist region) which are pretty poor, very densely populated and many live in shanties. So they were wiped away in the 6meter storm surge.

Manilla is ok though (if anyone is interested). My old man is there at the moment and heard from him on Friday. Was starting to get worried because I couldn't reach him but he called on Sunday to complain about the humidity and said Manilla was untouched.

[Judge Roughneck]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/10/australia-warmest-ever-calendar-year

Coincidence

[Judge Roughneck]

Smokey > The Weather Channel

[Smokey]

I keep trying tO post info that debunks the 'strongest storm" theory but it keeps telling me I am forbidden to access this server!   

As a troubleshooting effort, here is the post without the links:

Strongest storm recorded history

(CNN, ABC)

Coincidence

Based on what?  Not wind strength or rainfall so what is that based on?

It's all subjective, but if it's not the strongest in recorded history to hit land then it would definitely be in the top 5. Many have Typhoon Tip as the strongest in history as it had a lower pressure than Haiyan (Tip was around 870 hPa and Haiyan something like 890 hPa) yet Haiyan had higher maximum winds. Tip only took about 100 lives and Haiyan is already at about 300 confirmed and expected to top 10000. Hit different regions though. Haiyan went through Leyte and Cebu (popular tourist region) which are pretty poor, very densely populated and many live in shanties. So they were wiped away in the 6meter storm surge.

Manilla is ok though (if anyone is interested). My old man is there at the moment and heard from him on Friday. Was starting to get worried because I couldn't reach him but he called on Sunday to complain about the humidity and said Manilla was untouched.

Yeah, my mate lives in Cebu and he was offline for about 12 hours.  Said they got a bit of wind and rain but missed the worst of it thankfully.  As long as they are all safe is the main thing but it appears the tragedy of human loss of life was mostly because of the poor living conditions of the thousands of people who live in the area the storm crossed land.

Here's what the Guardian, NY Times, BBC and others reported:

http://tinyurl.com/k8n8s67
http://tinyurl.com/ly9ctdf

Winds of 195mph+.

Here's what the Philippine Met Agency reported at the time:

http://tinyurl.com/l7wjerc

It seems the media have a serious deficiency in trying to distinguish between mph and kmh, a minor issue I'm sure when reporting facts!

Here's what our won BOM have to say on storms just in our country:

Strongest Wind Gust

The highest recorded wind gust recorded in the Australian region is 408 km/h at Barrow Island (data courtesy of Chevron) during cyclone Olivia on 10 April 1996. This is a world record for the highest wind gust ever recorded eclipsing the previous record - 372 km/h at Mt Washington Observatory NH, USA on 12 April 1934. A wind gust of 267 km/h was also recorded at Varanus Island during Olivia.

The strongest wind gust recorded on the Australian mainland is 267 km/h. The gust was recorded during cyclone Vance at 11:50 am (WST) 22 March 1999 at Learmonth Meteorological Office, 35 km south of Exmouth.

Wind gusts of 259 km/h at Mardie and 246 km/h at Onslow were measured during cyclone Trixie in February 1975.

By definition a category 5 cyclone produces gusts of at least 280 km/h. This means these gusts have gone unrecorded when category 5 cyclones have crossed the coast. Also, measurements of such winds are inherently going to be suspect as instruments often are completely destroyed or damaged at these speeds. The Onslow anemometer was destroyed after measuring the gust of 246 km/h during Trixie in 1975 as was the Darwin anemometer during Tracy also in 1974.

http://tinyurl.com/m92n76v

Here's an article with further Philippine Met reports and other info, among it this:

So at landfall the sustained wind was 235 kmh or 147 mph, with gusts upto 275 kmh or 171 mph. This is 60 mph less than the BBC have quoted.

The maximum strength reached by the typhoon appears to have been around landfall, as the reported windspeeds three hours earlier were 225 kmh (140mph).

Terrible though this storm was, it only ranks as a Category 4 storm, and it is clear nonsense to suggest that it is “one of the most powerful storms on record to make landfall “

URL HERE

The only important and saddest thing about this storm was the tragic loss of human life but to say it was one of the strongest in history is plain wrong and typical of the hysterical over-reactionary reporting of populist media on most things climate nowadays.

[dwaino]

Haiyan was a cat 5 super typhoon with windspeeds maxing 315km/h and 10 min sustatin of 230km/h, making it a cat 5 under any classification. In Australia (and sth Pacific) a cat 5 severe tropical cyclone is >239km/h sustain @ 1min and >209km/h sustain @ 10min. Not sure where you're getting your info or what there is to achieve by 'debunking' the claims  it has been downgraded on approach to Vietnam (though huge storm surges still expected) if that's what you're refering too. stuff news sites, I usually skip to the bottom on wiki pages to pick out the references. In this case the meteorology links. The Phillipino one linked was at 5am Friday morning and still shows as a cat 5. Your link to the Aussie cyclone extremes don't show any under 900hPa. Haiyan was 895hPa.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Typhoon_Haiyan_(2013)

Hate to link wikipedia itself but it has the definitions for categories by different meteorologies. Media probably getting caught up in semantics too http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone

All you have to do then is use the references for the respective regions to get more info

[tigs2011]

Wiki is not an appropriate resource. Please re-post Dwaino with scholarly research

[one-eyed]

I keep trying tO post info that debunks the 'strongest storm" theory but it keeps telling me I am forbidden to access this server!   

No conspiracy. It's an anti-spam measure by our host. IIRC the maximum is 3 links per post.

[dwaino]

Wiki is not an appropriate resource. Please re-post Dwaino with scholarly research

I remember when my mate put his name in as the creator of Vegemite and it was there for over a month 

[Smokey]

Getting some of my info from here Dwaino:

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/11/some-historical-perspectives-on-typhoon-haiyan-yolanda/#more-97255

I tried to insert this link into my post above but kept getting an error message.  Have a read of the article, in particular look at the 3 screen caps from the PMA that show the wind speeds as it made landfall in 3 different locations, where none of them was anywhere near the speed you quoted.  Also, go to the bottom of the article to Update #6 and have a look at how the BBC corrects it's original wind speed reporting.  According to the official Philippines Met Agency it was a Cat 4 when it crossed the land and that makes it just another powerful storm that sadly wreaked an inordinate amount of havoc, not one of the Top 5 powerful storms ever.

[Smokey]

I keep trying tO post info that debunks the 'strongest storm" theory but it keeps telling me I am forbidden to access this server!   

No conspiracy. It's an anti-spam measure by our host. IIRC the maximum is 3 links per post.

Lol OE, I didn't suspect a conspiracy but I'm happy to run with that if you like.   

I've posted the missing link separately in another post.