Preview: Richmond v CarltonWILL BRODIE
March 25, 2010 Carlton v Richmond
MCG tonight, 7.10pm
(Matthew Richardson tribute before the game)
LAST TIME Rd 15, 2009, Carlton 16.13 (109) d Richmond 12.17 (89) at the MCG
PAST FIVE: Carlton 4, Richmond 1
PAST TEN: Carlton 6, Richmond 4
RECORD OVERALL Richmond 84, Carlton 117, drawn 2
AT THIS GROUND Richmond 36, Carlton 27
IN THE 2000s Richmond 6, Carlton 10
COACHES Hardwick 0, Ratten 0
BETTING Richmond $2.90, Carlton $1.40
UMPIRES 8 Rosebury, 14 H Ryan, 25 S Ryan
TV Channel Ten, 7.30pm RADIO 3AW, Triple M, 774 ABC, SEN
PRO-TIPPING PERCENTAGES:
Crowd: Richmond 14%, Carlton 86%
Experts: Richmond 10%, Carlton 90%
Why Richmond will win: will play with freedom because of low expectations; Blues forward woes, absence of Blue midfield ace Chris Judd; exciting young kids; strong midfield.
Why Carlton will win: better overall skill levels; wider spread of goalkicking options; underrated defence; deeper, more experienced midfield.
What we think: Carlton by 15 points
The footy world remembers round one last year, when they pumped-up Tigers were humiliated by 83 points in front of 87,043 fans at the MCG, and boom Tiger recruit Ben Cousins hurt his hamstring.
But for clues to the outcome of tonight’s match, we might be better advised to revisit the last time these two teams played. On that occasion, round 15, 2009, the Blues won by only 20 points, and their best two players were Chris Judd (29 possessions, three Brownlow Medal votes) and Brendan Fevola (nine goals, two Brownlow Medal votes).
Fevola is now with Brisbane, and Judd is out suspended.
Richmond have lost few players of note from that round 15 line-up, (they were already without veterans Bowden, Richardson, Johnson and Brown) and they have added exciting midfield draftee Dustin Martin, speedy flanker Ben Nason, livewire forward Relton, and former Port Adelaide defender Mitch Farmer.
Carlton is busy trying to construct a new, multi-pronged forward line, and has promised a more patient style of play, leaving it less open to counter-attacks.
Richmond is aiming to rebuild their team from its current ground zero, with a defence-first mentality.
These works-in-progress may make tonight’s match a dour affair, with both teams trying to retain possession with switching of play across the ground, until a gilt-edged attacking opportunity presents itself for two smallish, inexperienced attacks.
Richmond appears to be following the model Hawthorn used to reconstruct their list from the bottom of the ladder. (Tiger coach Damien Hardwick worked at Hawthorn for the four years prior to taking up the clipboard at Punt Road).
The problem with such rebuilding campaigns is that coaches require players to execute their skills with a precision that often does not emerge for a couple of years – the Hawks were ridiculed in the first years of the Alistair Clarkson regime, when they often looked chaotic as they imprinted a finnicky zone defence. They won five games the first year, 2005, and nine in 2006, but there were some ungainly moments early on.
Both teams have question marks over their forward lines. If anything the Tigers appear to have more goalkicking potential, with Riewoldt, Morton and Nahas amongst their first-picked players. Inexperienced Blues Yarran, Robinson and O’hAilpin have yet to prove they can combine to good effect.
But the match is likely to be decided by two factors further up the ground. Firstly, the team which wins the midfield battle, providing the easiest scoring opportunities for their forwards, will grab the ascendancy.
But given the potentially grungy style of the match, the game-breaker should be skill execution.
Simply put, the team which commits the fewest turnovers will win.
The midfield competition could be very close, with Richmond’s Deledio, Cotchin, Cousins, Martin, Tambling and Jackson leading the charge against Carlton’s Gibbs, Murphy, McLean, Carazzo, Simpson and Joseph.
But on what we have seen in pre-season, the cohesion, confidence and decision-making of the Tiger lesser lights is not up to that of the Blues. In what should be a tight match, Richmond seems more likely to 'win' the clanger count, and give Carlton the counter-attacking opportunities to fashion a winning score.
By round 20, when these two teams again meet at the MCG, things might be different, the Tigers more able to carry out their coach’s wishes and less prone to disastrous turnovers. But tonight, the more settled and seasoned Blues should just prevail.
Key players, Richmond: Jack Riewoldt is the key to the forward line. No man-mountain, he is nonetheless a powerful figure in the making, fast for a tall forward and capable of taking a big mark. He needs to do just that to give the Tiger forward line some structure.
Kelvin Moore looked like becoming an elite backman until his disappointing 2009 season. Agile, possessing good judgement and courageous, he must become a rebounding force to ensure Richmond’s back half is creative, as well as defensive.
Brett Deledio is a great player to watch – fast, aware, a lovely kick. But now he must become an imposing force. Young fellow on-ballers Cotchin and Martin have great skills and attitudes, but their bodies are not ready for the constant battering of the AFL midfield. Deledio, only 22, but a veteran of 106 games, must demand a tagger, then remain effective once one is assigned.
Key Players, Carlton:Paul Bower is a quiet achiever, but Carlton know just how effective this half-back has become after only 45 games. If he can become an attacking force running from defence, the nippy Tigers flankers will be forced further from goal and more pressure will fall to young target Tiger Riewoldt.
Bryce Gibbs. In the absence of Chris Judd, and with Marc Murphy coming off an interrupted pre-season, the classy midfielder must lead the Blues running brigade and give them the ascendancy at the stoppages.
Eddie Betts. In career-best form and fitness following a club suspension during pre-season, Betts, already a fine small forward, must continue to demand more of himself. He has the capacity to use his pace to be a leading option, as well as a crumber, and he should be setting his sights on kicking a minimum of two goals per game.
http://www.smh.com.au/afl/afl-news/preview-richmond-v-carlton-20100325-qxzr.html