One term Tony has NFI.
This is the worst government I have seen and my political involvement stretches back to when Harold Holt was taken by a Russian mini sub.
China will inflict pain if Abbott blunders on December 24, 2013
Hugh White
Tony Abbott could hardly have got off to a worse start in managing Australia's most important and complex diplomatic relationship. If he does not change his tune, Beijing will start inflicting pain. Abbott seems not yet to understand how much pain it can inflict, on him and on Australia. He will soon learn. He is about to get a lesson on the nature of power.
China was already uneasy about Abbott before he became Prime Minster because of things he'd said in opposition about Chinese investment, Tibet and Taiwan. But its anger now is about the Abbott government's approach to strategic tensions in north-east Asia, especially between China and Japan.
Just as those tensions have been escalating sharply, Abbott has swung Australia dramatically away from an even-handed position towards strong support for Japan. To Beijing this is a clear move against it on an issue of vital importance. It is not just about who owns a few tiny rocks in the East China Sea. It is ultimately about how Asia accommodates China's growing power and ambition. Nothing matters to Beijing more.
The new government's swing towards Japan began within a month of the election, when Australia signed a strikingly pro-Japanese joint statement at the annual US-Japan-Australia foreign ministers meeting. A few days later Abbott gushingly described Japan as ''Australia's best friend in Asia''. The last month's AUSMIN communique was unprecedentedly pro-Japan.
This all helps explain the intensity of Beijing's displeasure at our government's response to China's new air defence identification zone in late November. Canberra orchestrated a highly publicised dressing-down of the Chinese ambassador over an issue in which, from Beijing's perspective, we have no direct involvement and were gratuitously siding with Japan against China.
China's anger grew further when Abbott responded to Beijing's initial sharp criticism of these moves. In what we are starting to recognise as characteristic of his diplomacy, Abbott responded to criticism by coming back swinging harder still. In doing this he said two very strange and unwise things.
First, he explained Australia's position by saying that Australia is ''a strong ally of Japan'', and directly compared our alliance with Japan with our alliance with America. That certainly confirms Beijing's ideas about where Abbott stands in the escalating rivalry between Asia's giants. But it is simply false. Australia is not an ''ally'' of Japan in any serious sense - and certainly not at all in the sense that we are an ally of the US.
And it is an extremely serious thing to say at a time when Japan's relations with China are sliding towards a precipice. As Japan's ''ally'', does Abbott agree with Tokyo's new national security strategy, released last week, which explicitly accused China of trying to change the status quo in Asia by coercion?
Second, Abbott dismissed any suggestion that his forthright support of Japan might cost Australia economically. ''China trades with us because it is in China's interests to trade with us,'' he breezily affirmed. So he thinks there's no chance that we'd actually have to pay any price for his posturing.
That's a big call.
Abbott is very naive about international markets if he thinks Australia's exports to China are irreplaceable. And he is very naive about the nature of international politics if he thinks China will not use its immense economic leverage to pursue what it sees as vital strategic interests. There is every chance China will punish Australia economically if Abbott doesn't change his tune. His hopes for quick agreement to a free trade agreement might be an obvious target.
Of course many people will say Abbott is doing the right thing. Australia should speak its mind when, as he put it, ''Australia's values and interests have been compromised''. But speaking up for our values and interests is easy and cheap when the balance of power is on our side. It's harder when the power shifts to others. They have values and interests too, which might not be the same as ours, and they'll stand up for their values and interests as we and our friends do for ours.
When that happens we have to work out how far we try to impose our views on them, and how far we allow them to impose theirs on us. It is called power politics, and it's not easy. Abbott doesn't get it. He still thinks we and our close mates in the Anglosphere hold all the power.
Abbott will keep getting foreign policy badly wrong until he learns differently, and the Chinese are about to teach him. With a bit of luck they will do so quietly, so that he has the chance to avoid too public and humiliating a back-down. And with a bit of luck Abbott will have the brains to take that chance if it is offered.
Read more:
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/china-will-inflict-pain-if-abbott-blunders-on-20131223-2zueu.html#ixzz2oKJdurMF
