Australian Politics thread [merged]

[Francois Jackson]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/anti-corruption-watchdog-calls-out-victorian-labor-s-rotten-culture-20220427-p5agdx.html

I blame Bernie Finn for this. 

[1965]

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/anti-corruption-watchdog-calls-out-victorian-labor-s-rotten-culture-20220427-p5agdx.html

I blame Bernie Finn for this. 

Surely it's Dictator Dan's fault.

[one-eyed]

The RBA has increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.35%. The first of many.

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/interest-rates/homeowners-brace-for-pain-as-crucial-rba-interest-rate-decision-looms/news-story/3ae7eab1ec7d3dfc45518ea72cb0694e

[1965]

ScoMo trying to say this is a good thing as it is an indication of how well the economy is going.

[Assange Tiger 😎]

1965 trying to say it's a bad comment as it is an indication of how poorly Scomo is going.

[1965]

1965 trying to say it's a bad comment as it is an indication of how poorly Scomo is going.

Try again.

[Assange Tiger 😎]

1965 trying to say it's a bad comment as it is an indication of how poorly Scomo is going.

Try again.

FFS even 65 can see it 

[1965]

1965 trying to say it's a bad comment as it is an indication of how poorly Scomo is going.

Try again.

FFS even 65 can see it

I really don't know why I even try? At least you are having fun.

[1965]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

[mightytiges]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Sadly and unbelievably he still has a chance although unlikely. If neither major party achieves a majority then the crossbenchers will become king makers. Of course Morrison will just do what he always does and lie and con with phony promises he'll never deliver to try to stay in power. He's already started this process with his "I'll promise to change if you vote me back in" crap this week.

Anyway, the Libs are hoping for:
- Not a uniform swing. Doesn't matter if safe seats swing quite a bit as they don't change hands. Limiting swings in marginals is the key. It's how Howard won in 1998. Lost the 2PP overall but still retained government. 
- Qld hardly swings or only a few % and there's no net change.
- Vic/NSW swaps seats for no net change. Labor has some very thin marginal seats due to the last election and the Libs will be hoping a high profile candidate like Andrew Constance contesting in Gilmore (NSW) will flip a seat or two to counter any lost seats elsewhere. The Libs will also be hoping they get over the line against the "Teals" and hold onto the wealthy inner city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney.
- Tas to hardly swing by promoting the local state government's covid response and not the Feds.
- Hope WA & SA have already got their anger out the way at the state elections and there's no net change. Unless there's a huge swing to Labor hardly any seats will change anyway. Only Boothby (SA) and Swan (WA) are under 4%.
- Gain a territory seat to overset a loss elsewhere in the country. 

Conversely, Labor are hoping the polls are right this time. The pollsters have changed their methods since 2019 and since then they got both the WA & SA election results correct. Labor needs a net gain of 7 seats to win a majority government (76 seats). A 3.5 to 4% uniform 2PP swing does that. Newspoll sits at ALP 54 LNP 46 (a 5% swing from 2019). Yougov poll the other day had Labor winning 80 seats (+11) to the LNP's 63 (-13) with 7 independents (+2) and 1 Green (Bandt).

We'll find out who is right Saturday night. Perhaps even Sunday morning if the final outcome depends on WA seats.


ps. By the way, thanks to the idiot who decided to hold the election on that same night as the Dreamtime game .

pps. Despite whoever wins, the country is in for a couple of very difficult years now the inflationary genie is out of the bottle with stagnant wages, a trillion dollars in debt, record budget deficits and interest rates according to the Futures market expected to rise to 3% by December this year. Thanks Morrison! "Strong" economy my arsenal .

[Francois Jackson]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Sadly and unbelievably he still has a chance although unlikely. If neither major party achieves a majority then the crossbenchers will become king makers. Of course Morrison will just do what he always does and lie and con with phony promises he'll never deliver to try to stay in power. He's already started this process with his "I'll promise to change if you vote me back in" crap this week.

Anyway, the Libs are hoping for:
- Not a uniform swing. Doesn't matter if safe seats swing quite a bit as they don't change hands. Limiting swings in marginals is the key. It's how Howard won in 1998. Lost the 2PP overall but still retained government. 
- Qld hardly swings or only a few % and there's no net change.
- Vic/NSW swaps seats for no net change. Labor has some very thin marginal seats due to the last election and the Libs will be hoping a high profile candidate like Andrew Constance contesting in Gilmore (NSW) will flip a seat or two to counter any lost seats elsewhere. The Libs will also be hoping they get over the line against the "Teals" and hold onto the wealthy inner city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney.
- Tas to hardly swing by promoting the local state government's covid response and not the Feds.
- Hope WA & SA have already got their anger out the way at the state elections and there's no net change. Unless there's a huge swing to Labor hardly any seats will change anyway. Only Boothby (SA) and Swan (WA) are under 4%.
- Gain a territory seat to overset a loss elsewhere in the country. 

Conversely, Labor are hoping the polls are right this time. The pollsters have changed their methods since 2019 and since then they got both the WA & SA election results correct. Labor needs a net gain of 7 seats to win a majority government (76 seats). A 3.5 to 4% uniform 2PP swing does that. Newspoll sits at ALP 54 LNP 46 (a 5% swing from 2019). Yougov poll the other day had Labor winning 80 seats (+11) to the LNP's 63 (-13) with 7 independents (+2) and 1 Green (Bandt).

We'll find out who is right Saturday night. Perhaps even Sunday morning if the final outcome depends on WA seats.


ps. By the way, thanks to the idiot who decided to hold the election on that same night as the Dreamtime game .

pps. Despite whoever wins, the country is in for a couple of very difficult years now the inflationary genie is out of the bottle with stagnant wages, a trillion dollars in debt, record budget deficits and interest rates according to the Futures market expected to rise to 3% by December this year. Thanks Morrison! "Strong" economy my arsenal .

great lets talk economy, MT keen to hear your thoughts now on the Victorian economy and how that is tracking, or doesn't that count?

[mightytiges]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Sadly and unbelievably he still has a chance although unlikely. If neither major party achieves a majority then the crossbenchers will become king makers. Of course Morrison will just do what he always does and lie and con with phony promises he'll never deliver to try to stay in power. He's already started this process with his "I'll promise to change if you vote me back in" crap this week.

Anyway, the Libs are hoping for:
- Not a uniform swing. Doesn't matter if safe seats swing quite a bit as they don't change hands. Limiting swings in marginals is the key. It's how Howard won in 1998. Lost the 2PP overall but still retained government. 
- Qld hardly swings or only a few % and there's no net change.
- Vic/NSW swaps seats for no net change. Labor has some very thin marginal seats due to the last election and the Libs will be hoping a high profile candidate like Andrew Constance contesting in Gilmore (NSW) will flip a seat or two to counter any lost seats elsewhere. The Libs will also be hoping they get over the line against the "Teals" and hold onto the wealthy inner city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney.
- Tas to hardly swing by promoting the local state government's covid response and not the Feds.
- Hope WA & SA have already got their anger out the way at the state elections and there's no net change. Unless there's a huge swing to Labor hardly any seats will change anyway. Only Boothby (SA) and Swan (WA) are under 4%.
- Gain a territory seat to overset a loss elsewhere in the country. 

Conversely, Labor are hoping the polls are right this time. The pollsters have changed their methods since 2019 and since then they got both the WA & SA election results correct. Labor needs a net gain of 7 seats to win a majority government (76 seats). A 3.5 to 4% uniform 2PP swing does that. Newspoll sits at ALP 54 LNP 46 (a 5% swing from 2019). Yougov poll the other day had Labor winning 80 seats (+11) to the LNP's 63 (-13) with 7 independents (+2) and 1 Green (Bandt).

We'll find out who is right Saturday night. Perhaps even Sunday morning if the final outcome depends on WA seats.


ps. By the way, thanks to the idiot who decided to hold the election on that same night as the Dreamtime game .

pps. Despite whoever wins, the country is in for a couple of very difficult years now the inflationary genie is out of the bottle with stagnant wages, a trillion dollars in debt, record budget deficits and interest rates according to the Futures market expected to rise to 3% by December this year. Thanks Morrison! "Strong" economy my arsenal .

great lets talk economy, MT keen to hear your thoughts now on the Victorian economy and how that is tracking, or doesn't that count?

Ah Deflecting . I don't blame you. Even Morrison doesn't want Morrison anymore  .

Now we're entering the post-covid period the state's budget will return to surplus in the next couple of years. Slomo and Fraudenberg can't even promise that in a decade's time. They want 20+ years in power and not deliver one surplus  .

I see and use all the new infrastructure assets thanks to the Vic government. Something that was ignored and put in the too hard basket by previous state governments for decades stretching back to the 50s/60s. Money actually spent to benefit us plebs rather than wasting tens of billions in taxpayers money handing over free cash to the LNP's corporate mates and donors as Morrison has done . My local area that I move about in has had 14 level crossing removals (with 2 more to come) and 11 new railway stations built (with one to come). Then there's all the new/upgraded local roads, schools, sport facilities, etc. We'll also have the metro rail tunnel finished in a couple of years (something the previous LNP gov under Baillieu & Napthine promised to build and then reneged).

What has Morrison built in Victoria? Imaginary car parks at imaginary stations  . Takes our taxes from a state with 25% of the national population and throws back at us some 6% in crumbs. The baseball bats are waiting for them on Saturday! 

[Francois Jackson]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Sadly and unbelievably he still has a chance although unlikely. If neither major party achieves a majority then the crossbenchers will become king makers. Of course Morrison will just do what he always does and lie and con with phony promises he'll never deliver to try to stay in power. He's already started this process with his "I'll promise to change if you vote me back in" crap this week.

Anyway, the Libs are hoping for:
- Not a uniform swing. Doesn't matter if safe seats swing quite a bit as they don't change hands. Limiting swings in marginals is the key. It's how Howard won in 1998. Lost the 2PP overall but still retained government. 
- Qld hardly swings or only a few % and there's no net change.
- Vic/NSW swaps seats for no net change. Labor has some very thin marginal seats due to the last election and the Libs will be hoping a high profile candidate like Andrew Constance contesting in Gilmore (NSW) will flip a seat or two to counter any lost seats elsewhere. The Libs will also be hoping they get over the line against the "Teals" and hold onto the wealthy inner city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney.
- Tas to hardly swing by promoting the local state government's covid response and not the Feds.
- Hope WA & SA have already got their anger out the way at the state elections and there's no net change. Unless there's a huge swing to Labor hardly any seats will change anyway. Only Boothby (SA) and Swan (WA) are under 4%.
- Gain a territory seat to overset a loss elsewhere in the country. 

Conversely, Labor are hoping the polls are right this time. The pollsters have changed their methods since 2019 and since then they got both the WA & SA election results correct. Labor needs a net gain of 7 seats to win a majority government (76 seats). A 3.5 to 4% uniform 2PP swing does that. Newspoll sits at ALP 54 LNP 46 (a 5% swing from 2019). Yougov poll the other day had Labor winning 80 seats (+11) to the LNP's 63 (-13) with 7 independents (+2) and 1 Green (Bandt).

We'll find out who is right Saturday night. Perhaps even Sunday morning if the final outcome depends on WA seats.


ps. By the way, thanks to the idiot who decided to hold the election on that same night as the Dreamtime game .

pps. Despite whoever wins, the country is in for a couple of very difficult years now the inflationary genie is out of the bottle with stagnant wages, a trillion dollars in debt, record budget deficits and interest rates according to the Futures market expected to rise to 3% by December this year. Thanks Morrison! "Strong" economy my arsenal .

great lets talk economy, MT keen to hear your thoughts now on the Victorian economy and how that is tracking, or doesn't that count?

Ah Deflecting . I don't blame you. Even Morrison doesn't want Morrison anymore  .

Now we're entering the post-covid period the state's budget will return to surplus in the next couple of years. Slomo and Fraudenberg can't even promise that in a decade's time. They want 20+ years in power and not deliver one surplus  .

I see and use all the new infrastructure assets thanks to the Vic government. Something that was ignored and put in the too hard basket by previous state governments for decades stretching back to the 50s/60s. Money actually spent to benefit us plebs rather than wasting tens of billions in taxpayers money handing over free cash to the LNP's corporate mates and donors as Morrison has done . My local area that I move about in has had 14 level crossing removals (with 2 more to come) and 11 new railway stations built (with one to come). Then there's all the new/upgraded local roads, schools, sport facilities, etc. We'll also have the metro rail tunnel finished in a couple of years (something the previous LNP gov under Baillieu & Napthine promised to build and then reneged).

What has Morrison built in Victoria? Imaginary car parks at imaginary stations  . Takes our taxes from a state with 25% of the national population and throws back at us some 6% in crumbs. The baseball bats are waiting for them on Saturday! 

deflection, your the bloke who bought up economy in response to question on who will win the election.

lets not forget the budget blow outs on the west gate, and every other road, ripped up contracts, quarantine fiasco and the massive wages paid out. No biggy. What is happening to the mickleham thing also?

who is defending Morrison, there were mistakes made, but i merely asked about the victorian economy which you have answered in your own left words as being in fantastic shape

[Francois Jackson]

Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Nope I don’t think. The independents will ensure it won’t happen with preferences or those voters leaning to the ALP. My own electorate is a well funded independent who will win without a doubt IMO.

I even read the doctor from Kooyong is a former ALP member, so you would think even it’s hung it won’t matter really.

I’m tipping much more support for all independents than the 2 major parties 

[Andyy]

Can't say I'm thrilled by Albo but the idea of another term with Morrison is surely worse.

This new policy they are suggesting whereby younger people can access their super to buy a house is bloody insane. It will only make housing affordability for first home buyers even worse and will damage their retirement savings.

Best thing to do would be abolish negative gearing progressively over a few years. If I buy blue chip stock and lose my cash does anyone give me a tax kickback for it? No. It's just a bad investment. Real estate needs to be treated the same - if you're losing money then you either wear it for the capital gains or don't bother over-extending yourself to properties you don't live in ffs.

Edit: people should be encouraged to put more into super. This could be achieved by implementing a tax-free contribution to replace negatively geared deductions etc. Would mean that more people dump money into super later in life instead of buying more houses.