pretty much agree with most of that and is basically whats been said for a long time by some.
i do disagree though on the petty comments. yes if you pick a afl standard player i suppose you have done well. but top 10 picks should be aimed at very good to elite. 10 to 20 good to very good etc etc. if say you have a top 10 pick no make it specific and say pick 5 and end up with a good player or up to standard player and directly after you have picked the next 5 picks end up very good to elite players you have every right to question if you could/should not have done better.
griffiths imo had many questions about him was always high risk and was clearly not best available. the same thing is being debated about conca the only thing that will justify us taking conca in front of not just heppell but a fair few others is if he ends up in the very good to elite category.
yes where we take them and who was is available when we take them is vaklid and could mean the difference between top 4 and top 8.
for me and its only opinion but i think both list management and recruiting since 05 jacksons time at the club only average at best.
I understand where your coming from and if we were in St.Kildas shoes and playing a good brand of football but failing to have that killer punch in September I would be agreeing with you that these little 1% of improvement were the difference. However we are not a top 4 side, we are uncompetetive and have an unfortunate embarressing list. Countless reasons why, but the biggest fact is that since 2003 we have a 25% success rate in finding AFL standard footballers when using picks 1-30. Thats not finding the best available, that is straight up finding and selecting a player that can play to the standard of AFL. Top 30 picks out of the top 30 kids in the country each year to find only 1 in every 4 attempts is just embarrassing. That is basic recruiting, not whinging about finding superstars we have 25% success rate when drafting standard AFL players.
That is why we are in the state we are in above all else. Poor development, lack of football department spending, VFL stand alone side, no debt etc. have all magnified where we are at but the brute of the problem for where we are at is our recruiting and failures to find 100+ gamers, and in turn not even drafting AFL standard/currency. But if you take that percentage and improve it to 50% success rate we have an extra 5 players on our list that would be of AFL standard. These would replace the current fringe players we have that we have had to bring to the club from the rookie draft, trades and 30+ selections who are not AFL standard.
You can't blame the club for failing to develop rookies and picks 30-70 for the lack of success and state of the club. The problem is the fact that 75% of the picks in the top 30 for the last 7 years are not upto standard. How you can get such a low percentage is beyond me.
To put it in perspective, take all the players who have been failed top 30 draft picks; in terms of failing to even compete/develop into AFL standard.
#21 Alex Gilmore - Finished
#4 Richard Tambling - Borderline AFL standard
#12 Danny Meyer - Finished
#16 Adam Pattison - Finished
#20 Dean Polo - Borderline AFL standard
#8 Oakly Nicholls - Finished
#24 Cleve Hughes - Finished
#26 Shane Edwards - Borderline AFL Standard
#18 Alex Rance - Borderline AFL Standard (Improving)
#26 Jayden Post - Borderline AFL Standard (Needs break out year next year)
You can excuse Post seeing as he is still a young KP player and being kind I'll also excuse Rance as he's improving rapidly in comparison to last year.
So that leaves us with 5 completely failed picks and 3 unsuccessful ones.
The size of the failure is what concerns me, out of all those players other than Tambling and Edwards none had any currency 3 years out of drafting them. Considering what we paid for them (high draft picks) that is a disgrace. Unfortunately Jackson wears this as he is head of recruiting, even if it wasn't him who made the call, he unfortunately cops the whack, just as Damien Hardwick does for on field performance.
Now, we could be upset with what we have missed out when you compare Conca to Heppell and Fyfe to Griffiths (as examples) yes there is an improvement, but only marginal. Which is why I think its irrelevant. Many of the top 4 clubs have missed out on best availables but are able to still create a premiership/finals list. Conca, Griffiths and Rance have AFL standard all over them, which at minimal is a pass, even though you can argue we missed out on best available, you can't expect every pick to be 100% correct. What you do expect is for top 30 picks, at worst, to be AFL standard.
So if we take our 5 finished players:
#21 Alex Gilmore - Finished
#12 Danny Meyer - Finished
#16 Adam Pattison - Finished
#8 Oakly Nicholls - Finished
#24 Cleve Hughes - Finished
All with quality picks 3 being first rounders. If we take those and actually drafted AFL standard players, not even being greedy with "the best availble" if we even only got these picks slightly wrong our list would be improved dramatically.
Compare this to having Heppell over Conca or Fyfe over Griffiths, the list only improves slightly.
Where as if we picked up AFL standard 4th rounders with these high draft picks we'd have 5 extra players on the list mid 20s, bigger bodies and 5x100 games experience - that is a massive improvement to the list.
So if we even got these half right, and settle for some mistakes in - the Tambling, Polo and Edwards draft picks you'd have a pass mark for the clubs recruiting and all of a sudden - presto - you have a competetive football list. Unfortunately we don't. This is why I have no problem with Conca, Griffiths and Rance selections. They are/will be AFL standard and that above all else is the most important when recruiting, you can't possibly expect to predict the future and draft the best available every pick.