AFL site is predicting us to get flogged
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Preview: Geelong v RichmondBy Adam McNicol and Paul Daffey
Tue 17 Apr, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: Simonds Stadium, Sunday April 22, 1.10pm
LAST TIME: Geelong 17.11 (113) d Richmond 7.9 (51), round 18, 2011 at Etihad Stadium
Stung by a loss to North Melbourne in round three, the Cats will unfurl their 2011 premiership flag before taking on Damien Hardwick's emerging Richmond outfit, who is fresh from a convincing win over Melbourne.
THE FOUR POINTS
Geelong1. A key factor in Geelong's 17-point loss to North Melbourne was the team's inability to make an impact around the stoppages. The Cats lost the clearance count by 13, and when the Kangaroos got the ball they ran the reigning premiers ragged with a game-plan dominated by handballs. North finished the game with 62 more handballs than Geelong.
2. The Cats' key forwards are certainly not their issue. James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins booted another nine goals between them in the loss to the Roos. Podsiadly now sits atop the race for the Coleman Medal with 12 goals for the season. Hawkins is just one back on 11. The issue for the Cats is the lack of scoring from their small forwards like Steve Johnson and Allen Christensen and attacking midfielders such as Paul Chapman and Mitch Duncan.
3. Geelong should take heart from what happened in the week after North Melbourne last beat it. The Cats lost to the Roos in round five, 2007. In the following round they annihilated Richmond by 157 points.
4. The Cats have enjoyed a great record in games against Richmond in recent years. Geelong has won seven consecutive matches against the Tigers and 14 of the past 15. Over the past decade, the Cats have thrashed Richmond six times by more than 50 points and twice by more than 100. The Tigers' only home and away season win over Geelong in the past decade was in round nine, 2006 at Simonds Stadium.
Richmond1. It was only a practice match, but Richmond made its supporters very excited when it thrashed Geelong by 59 points at Simonds Stadium in March. Richmond was in control for the entire match, leading Tigers fans to clear their throats and begin talking about finals. After two losses and a win in the premiership season, they're not talking finals now. Club insiders might feel differently, but you get the impression from fans that the Tigers would be happy simply with a strong showing at the Cattery.
2. The Tigers' experiences against Geelong have been largely horror stories since they won their clash against the Cats in 2006. Last year the Cats won at Etihad Stadium by 62 points. It's been that sort of rivalry.
3. The Tigers will be extra wary because Geelong coach Chris Scott has given his players a blast for losing the contested possession count in their three games this season. Bullish Richmond midfielder Dustin Martin has been down on form. The Tigers will need Martin to step up if they're going to keep Geelong to another low contested possession count.
4. Dylan Grimes' nomination for the Rising Star award after round three confirms that Richmond is bedding down a backline. Chris Newman, Alex Rance and Steven Morris are steady in the last line, while Grimes picks up the second tall, Jake Batchelor last week picked up the third tall and first-year player Brandon Ellis has impressed at half-back. Rance and Grimes this week will have their resolve tested when they take on the in-form James Podsiadly and Tom Hawkins.
AFL.com.au prediction: Geelong by 47 points http://www.afl.com.au/News/NEWSARTICLE/tabid/208/newsId/133323/Default.aspx
