The myth of the AFL draft system by: Stephen Rielly
From: The Australian
May 05, 2012 THERE is, at the heart of the AFL draft system, a false premise: recruiting teenagers is both a precise exercise and one certain to raise low teams high. It is not true.
While drafting astutely is unquestionably important to success, nearly every premiership club of recent years - Geelong being an exception - has traded, as much as drafted, its way to the top.
Port Adelaide added experience from elsewhere to just about every line to win in 2004, just as Sydney did, with Craig Bolton, Barry Hall, Paul Williams, Nick Davis, Darren Jolly and Jason Ball, to succeed the following year.
Who could envisage Collingwood's triumph in 2010 without Jolly, Luke Ball and Leigh Brown? Even the Cats were captained in 2007 and 2009 by ex-Port Adelaide defender Tom Harley and led in the ruck by a former Tiger, Brad Ottens.
Drafting can explain some of Sydney's unbeaten start to this season but it cannot be fully understood without recognition of the importance of trading for Josh Kennedy, Shane Mumford, Rhyce Shaw, Ted Richards, Marty Mattner and Ben McGlynn over the years.
The draft is not science nor certain cure which, to an extent, is what Melbourne and Jack Watts tell us, if we want to listen.
The Demons gave themselves over to the idea of a draft-led recovery almost five years ago, when a time of relative success under Neale Daniher was coming to an end. Even allowing for the winters it requires to recruit and prepare a new generation, the Dees have been disappointing. Five rounds into a new season and they are winless.
In the intervening years, Melbourne has selected 10 players with picks inside the top 20 of the national draft, four from the top four in three years. Now, with Tom Scully (pick one in 2009) in a Giants jumper, Watts (pick one in 2008) in the VFL and Cale Morton (pick four in 2007) in the worst of positions, no man's land, there is talk of yet another rebuild. A reconstruction of a reconstruction.
Not that Watts, unlike Scully, is yet lost to Melbourne. He is tall, quick and young, attributes that could still, for example, enable him to become a fine key defender if not a distinguished forward. His agility is such that Melbourne coach Mark Neeld has ordered him to play midfield for the club's VFL affiliate, Casey, this weekend.
"Jack has scope to play in a number of positions," Neeld said yesterday. "He's tall enough to play as a key forward, there is no doubting that. Can we put some muscle mass on him to enable him to wrestle with those big defenders? Yeah, I think we can.
"But he's also got that athletic ability and agility to play through the midfield, which is hard to match up on, so I think he'll spend his career being able to play in a number of positions."
Which sounds promising and could be fruitful. Except Watts, to the sort of premature and overblown acclaim that all top draftees are received with now, was said on draft day to be a power forward, the player to succeed David Neitz as commander-in-chief of Melbourne's forward 50.
It is a curious thing, expectation. Watts, by comparison with most others in his draft year, does not suffer greatly, if at all, and yet his reputation has and continues to do so.
Fremantle's Stephen Hill, selected at three in 2008, has made the biggest impression. He has played 72 of 73 matches for the Dockers, finished top seven or better in the club's best and fairest award in each of his three completed seasons and caught the eye of the umpires regularly enough to receive 11 Brownlow Medal votes.
Nic Naitanui, picked just after Watts at two and often said to be the player Melbourne ought to have taken, has played 60 of 73 matches and finished fifth and seventh in West Coast's best and fairest in the past two years.
Watts, it is often forgotten, was held back from senior football in his first season so he could complete his Year 12 studies and yet he has played as many games or thereabouts as Essendon's Michael Hurley (pick five), Carlton's Chris Yarran (six),
Richmond's Tyrone Vickery (eight) or North Melbourne's Jack Ziebell (nine). His record at this point bears comparison with that of Hurley, seen to be the future of Essendon's attack for the next decade. Watts averages 5.1 marks a game and has kicked, in six fewer games and a poorer side, 37 goals to Hurley's 55. The Essendon man hauls in an average of 5.4 marks per game.
Somewhat understandably, Neeld tried to make the point yesterday that while Watts has much to learn, and has been demoted to do so, he has not been the disappointment some consider him to be. "Jack Watts is 196cm and is 21 years of age. He can play multiple roles," Neeld said.
"We want him to play this way, and he has a bit of improvement to do that. He's receptive to it. We've had some really good chats, productive chats during the week. He's on the training track confronting the things we want him to confront and we will see how he goes at VFL level."
A place, no doubt, where he will be reminded jeeringly and constantly of how much it really meant to be considered the number one teenage footballer in the country not four years ago.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/the-myth-of-the-afl-draft-system/story-fnca0u4y-1226347247835
