AFL site is tipping the Hawks by 22 pts...
Preview: Richmond v HawthornBy Paul Daffey
Tue 22 May, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday, May 26, 1.45pm
LAST TIME: Hawthorn 17.13 (115) d Richmond 6.16 (52), round three, 2011 at the MCG
The ladder suggests a win for Hawthorn, who sits sixth (5-3) on the ladder while Richmond is 13th (3-5), but the Tigers are given a chance because of its record of pushing fancied rivals this season. Richmond has been in with a chance in all five losses only to slip up through lapses in concentration. Hawthorn has recovered from its letdown against the Sydney Swans in round five by recording strong wins over St Kilda, Melbourne and Fremantle.
THE FOUR POINTS
RICHMOND1. Of all the weeks to miss Dylan Grimes through injury, this is the worst. Grimes was a revelation before tearing his hamstring during the loss against Essendon last week. His 54 marks before the Essendon game ranked him in the competition's top 10, highlighting his transition from being a pure stopper to a player capable of taking intercept marks and beginning counter-attacks. Grimes this week would have shared defensive duties with Alex Rance against the mighty duo of Lance Franklin and Jarryd Roughead. His absence means Jake Batchelor will push up to become the second tall defender or Ben Griffiths will be promoted from the Coburg Tigers.
2. A telling statistic from last weekend's 19-point loss to Essendon is the fact that tall forwards contributed only two of Richmond's 15 goals, with Jack Riewoldt and Brad Miller kicking one each. Midfielders Trent Cotchin (three goals), Dustin Martin (two) and Brett Deledio (one) were dangerous while rotating through full-forward, but the Tigers are going to need more from their tall forwards if they're to achieve sustainable success.
3. Essendon ruckmen Tom Bellchambers and Paddy Ryder were well on top in the first half last weekend, but Richmond big man Ivan Maric hit back to such an extent that he was ranked among the top few on the ground by the final siren. Maric faces lesser opponents this week: David Hale will be the Hawks' main ruckman, with Jarryd Roughead providing basic relief. The way appears to be clear for Maric to continue the form that would have him ranked highly in the Tigers' best and fairest award.
4. Richmond is said to be basing its game-plan on the Hawthorn model, which requires precise kicking out of defence and through the midfield. Statistics somewhat support this view, with both teams ranked high for disposals (Richmond second, Hawthorn fifth) and marks (Richmond third, Hawthorn fourth). The damning area for both clubs is clearances. Hawthorn is ranked 12th while Richmond is 18th. Both teams would do well to concentrate on getting the ball in tight as well as disposing of it out wide.
HAWTHORN1. Hawthorn has won six of its seven clashes against Richmond since 2005. The only loss in that time was in round 20, 2008, which served as a wake-up call ahead of a successful finals campaign. The Hawks' 63-point win in the teams' only clash last season was the biggest margin between the sides since Richmond won by 76 points in round 15, 1997.
2. The Hawks' midfielders have lifted their form at stoppages in the past fortnight. After winning the clearance count in only one of their first six matches, Hawthorn thrashed the Demons 40-22 in round seven and Fremantle 48-24 last week. Liam Shiels had to warm into the season after missing rounds one and two with a quad injury, but he's had 13 clearances in the past two weeks and is hitting the form that made him one of the game's most improved players last year.
3. Clinton Young had 20 kicks last week in his 100th game, the second-most of his career and the most since round 12, 2006 against Richmond. The free-wheeling left-footer has been given a licence to kick by coach Alastair Clarkson and he's used it - he had only five handballs. With Isaac Smith playing a similar role on the opposite wing, the Hawks have two players who can find space and drive the ball inside forward 50 with great effect.
4. Acting captain Jordan Lewis has been outstanding this season. He has collected the scalps of some of the game's most damaging players, including St Kilda's Nick Dal Santo in round six and Stephen Hill last week, while at the same time hurting the opposition on the scoreboard. The 26-year-old has booted at least one goal in 10 of his past 11 matches. Tigers star Trent Cotchin shapes as a likely match-up on Saturday.
AFL.com.au prediction: Hawthorn by 22 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/136571/default.aspx
