AFL website is tipping us by 21 points
....
Preview: Richmond v FremantleBy Paul Daffey and Nathan Schmook
Tue 05 Jun, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday, June 9, 1.40pm
LAST TIME: Richmond 23.10 (148) d Fremantle 14.15 (99), round seven, 2011 at the MCG
Richmond has come off its horror draw over the first 10 rounds and now settles in for an easier draw through the middle of the season. After defeating highly-rated opponents Hawthorn and St Kilda in the past two matches, the Tigers should be too good for Fremantle, or so the theory goes. Fremantle has lost its past three matches in unimpressive fashion. But as round 10 should tell you, recent results are not always the best guide.
THE FOUR POINTS
RICHMOND1. Jack Riewoldt has had an oscillating season, kicking four goals in the opening round before going through a trough and then kicking 14 goals in the past two games — six against Hawthorn and eight against St Kilda. Can he maintain the upward trend? Coach Damien Hardwick stated consistently during Riewoldt's lean patch that if he continued to work on his defensive pressure the goals would follow. The past fortnight suggests he was right.
2. Richmond has dominated against Fremantle at the MCG, winning seven of their past eight games there. Fremantle's only victory during that sequence has been in round 12, 2004. In fact, Fremantle has lost its past 10 matches at the MCG. Its last win there was in round four, 2007, against Melbourne.
3. Part of Richmond's giant-killing run of recent weeks can be attributed to lesser lights like Steven Morris, Shane Edwards and Daniel Jackson. Morris has been especially impressive, curtailing Hawthorn's Cyril Rioli and St Kilda's Stephen Milne while picking up his share of disposals. Edwards has played well in tagging roles at half-forward while Jackson gives his all every week. Richmond began the season believing its depth was poor, but it's getting harder to maintain that view.
4. Fremantle's lockdown style appears to hold few fears for Richmond given the Tigers' proficiency by foot. Under Hardwick, the Tigers have become the team that holds the ball the most while looking for the right option. They lead the competition for disposals. They look extremely capable of picking apart defensive presses with precision by hand and foot. Fremantle will provide a good test in this area.
FREMANTLE1. Labelled "ugly" after its six-goal effort against West Coast, Fremantle was anything but ugly against Adelaide one week later. Ross Lyon's men ran hard for each other against the Crows, racking up more handball receives and uncontested possessions than their opponents. They looked dangerous and played with more creativity, and Lyon was positive post-match, despite the 29-point margin.
2. While Fremantle improved on the outside, it was beaten comprehensively at the stoppages, losing the clearances (in this case 53-30) for the fifth straight week. Ruckman Aaron Sandilands will be competing against in-form Tiger Ivan Maric, who has given ground-level midfielders Trent Cotchin, Dustin Martin, Nathan Foley and Shane Tuck first use. Sandilands had 49 hit-outs against the Crows, but Freo can't seem to turn that into a clearance edge.
3. Can Fremantle play four quarters of sustained quality against the Tigers and avoid conceding a run of goals? West Coast broke open the round-nine derby with an unanswered run of eight goals either side of three-quarter time, while Adelaide kicked the last five goals of the match last Saturday after falling three points behind.
4. Run-with specialist Ryan Crowley is in form and who he tags will be important. But perhaps of more significance will be how Fremantle handles those midfielders who aren't under Crowley's watch. Last week he targeted Scott Thompson (17 disposals) and Rory Sloane and Patrick Dangerfield ran amok. Against West Coast, Daniel Kerr was held to 12 disposals, but Matt Rosa had a career-high 43. Fremantle's other midfielders need to support Crowley and start damaging the opposition when they have the ball.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 21 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/137852/default.aspx
