The AFL site is tipping us to win by 5 goals ...
Preview: Melbourne v Richmond
By Peter Ryan and Paul Daffey
03/07/2012
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Saturday July 7, 2.15pm
LAST TIME: Richmond 20.13 (133) d Melbourne 11.8 (74), round three, 2011, at the MCG
A must-win for the Tigers after two disappointing losses in the past three games that have kept them among the pack chasing a spot in the lower reaches of the eight. Although the Demons are more organised now than when the teams met earlier in the season, shocking luck with injury has made them vulnerable. Promising young defender Tom McDonald is the latest casualty, coming on top of the season-ending injury to forward Mitch Clark. The Tigers midfield should be too good again, able to catch the Demons on the spread and generate opportunities up forward for Jack Riewoldt.
THE FOUR POINTS
MELBOURNE
1. Although Melbourne recorded more inside 50s than the Lions last week it was found wanting up forward without Clark. While Jared Rivers and Colin Garland battled hard, the Demons had to scramble for goals and were punished after turnovers. Melbourne is functioning as a unit much better now, but they are undermanned.
2. James Frawley and Riewoldt always have intriguing battles. Frawley remains the Demons' most reliable defender, particularly with Rivers forward. To subdue Riewoldt however he will be reliant on the midfield applying pressure, an area in which Melbourne has improved in the past month. In the absence of McDonald, Rivers might have to return to defence.
3. How can Melbourne manufacture goals without Clark as a marking forward? It managed to kick three of its eight goals from marks inside 50 last round, and while many entries were rushed and its makeshift forwards battled hard, it could not crumb goals. It will need to bring the same intensity of effort it brought to the first quarter last week and hope it can convert the entries into scoreboard pressure to stay in the game.
4. Beaten on the spread last week, the Demons might try to lock down Trent Cotchin with Jack Trengove and send Jordie McKenzie to Brett Deledio. If Cotchin goes forward, Daniel Nicholson can sit on him and rotate Trengove through the back half as a spare. It sounds defensive but the Dees were blown away in eight minutes of football in round three. They can't let that happen again.
RICHMOND
1. Richmond's loss against Adelaide marked yet another defeat after the Tigers had been in a winning position. It's happened against almost every strong team this season, although not, as in this case, when they'd kicked eight goals in the opening quarter and led by 33 points at the first break. The Tigers need to be better at closing teams down. If they're to challenge for the eight, it should start this week.
2. Dustin Martin receives a lot of attention for being a young bull, but this season he's been an inconsistent one. For most of the season he's been more intent on doing an exaggerated wind-up and trying to kick as long as possible rather than trying to pick out a teammate. On Saturday he returned to form, getting 23 disposals and kicking three goals. The Tigers will be hoping he remains on track this week and thereafter.
3. Jack Watts has become a key since becoming a half-back sweeper. It'll be interesting to see whether the Tigers assign a defensive half-forward to try to curb his influence. Shaun Grigg might be a candidate. More likely, they'll play three tall forwards to try to stretch the Demons. Tyrone Vickery, Todd Elton, Jayden Post or Brett O'Hanlon could all play as a third tall forward behind Riewoldt and Brad Miller.
4. Richmond was in front against Adelaide when it won the contested ball. Adelaide wrested the authority back over the last three quarters by winning the contested ball. Inside work is not the Tigers' strength; they're better on the outside, where they can use their handball to hare through the middle and their precise kicking skills to pick out a teammate. For all Melbourne's woes this season, it's been reasonable at winning the contested ball. The Tigers will do well to knuckle down in the packs if they want to stay in the hunt for a final-eight spot.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 32 points
