The AFL website is tipping us by 21 pts
Preview: Richmond v EssendonBy Paul Daffey and Callum Twomey
Tue 21 Aug, 2012WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Friday, August 24, 7.50pm
LAST TIME: Essendon 19.14 (128) d Richmond 15.19 (109) round eight, 2012, at the MCG
Richmond is 12th and, with two games to go, eager to salvage its season with an 11-11 record. Its form is reasonable, with victories over the Brisbane Lions at the Gabba and the Western Bulldogs at the MCG before a frustrating loss to Fremantle in Perth. Essendon is 10th, two wins ahead of the Tigers, but its season can't end quickly enough. Its past five games have included massive losses to Geelong, Hawthorn, North Melbourne and Carlton, with the four-point loss to Adelaide in round 19 an aberration.
RICHMOND1. Full-forward Jack Riewoldt said during the week that he's disappointed with his season despite being second on the goalkicking table; Fremantle's Matthew Pavlich has 60 goals and he has 56. In the past two seasons, Riewoldt has kicked 78 and 62 goals, so he'll be keen to kick at least six goals over the next two games to be able to say that at least he's bettered last year's record. Last season's record, however, stacks up well when you consider that Riewoldt was beset by injury, which has not been the case this season.
2. If midfielder Trent Cotchin wins votes from the coaches in this match, he's almost assured of winning the AFLCA Champion Player of the Year award. Cotchin is on 97 votes, ahead of Dayne Beams (Collingwood) on 89 and Jobe Watson (Essendon) on 88. Cotchin's season has got better as it's gone on. His form is such that it would be a huge surprise if he fails to win votes in this match, especially if the Tigers get up.
3. These two teams played a classic in round eight, with the Bombers withstanding a late surge to hold out the Tigers winning by 19 points. Richmond's performance was an excellent example of a young team that was made to pay for its lack of composure. The Tigers had 18 more inside 50s but their poorer accuracy cost them. Essendon's final goal summed up the Tigers' luckless night. Small forward Alwyn Davey kicked the sealer when a chip that was intended for Watson ended up bouncing through.
4. There's one round-22 match between Richmond and Essendon that's dear to the Tigers' hearts. It was the last round in 1979. Essendon, which hosted the game, was on the verge of playing in the finals while Richmond was in eighth spot, well short of a finals berth. Richmond's key forwards Michael Roach (seven goals) and David Cloke (three) had a day out as the Tigers stunned the Windy Hill crowd with 59-point win. Fitzroy bundled out Essendon in the elimination final the following week, winning by 81 points. Richmond always believed it had softened up Essendon for the Lions to pick off.
ESSENDON1. How do the Bombers recover from their 96-point thumping at the hands of Carlton last week? They can start by looking back to round 19, when they travelled to AAMI Stadium and were defeated by Adelaide by four points. Despite the loss that day, the Bombers gave a strong effort and couldn't have tried any more. The week before the Crows clash, Essendon lost to Hawthorn by 94 points. The same response is needed this week against the Tigers.
2. We've been saying it for weeks, but Jobe Watson needs to get more help and protection in Essendon's midfield. Watson was again productive in last week's loss to Carlton, gathering 29 disposals and kicking a goal, but had little assistance from his teammates. David Zaharakis and Brent Stanton, who combined for only 27 disposals against the Blues, will need to be better against the Tigers in their second game back from their respective injuries.
3. Chris Judd got the honours over Heath Hocking last week, and Hocking faces perhaps an even tougher task this week if he lines up on in-form Cotchin. Cotchin has become one of the most complete midfielders in the game, and the Bombers will have their work cut out to secure victory if he turns it on again. It leaves Hocking with one of the most critical jobs in the match.
4. Is it time for the Bombers to bring in some more youth? With the season seemingly over, it could be a good chance for James Hird to give a couple of youngsters a run. Elliott Kavanagh was dropped after making his debut against Hawthorn but is worth a recall, while half-forward Nick O'Brien has impressed in the VFL and was best on ground for Bendigo Gold in last week's loss to Port Melbourne.
AFL.com.au prediction: Richmond by 21 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/145248/default.aspx
