The issue is the Club, at least with its public statements, got ahead of itself given where the list is currently at. Those of us here who analysed our list since Hardwick took over were saying the earliest chance we would have of making the finals was possibly 2013 with some luck but we may even have to wait until 2014 (given we won meaningless games in 2009-10 and missed out on valuable top 20 priority draft picks in compromised drafts to accelerate the rebuild). The Club however was talking finals last year when we had no chance (which is how it turned out) and again this year the Club has been talking finals as if it's a given when really it was/is a 50/50 chance (ie. we need/needed things to go our way). Due the Club talking and promising finals, it's raised expectations beyond reality and so as supporters we're talking about us failing when we really are just showing where we are still at and how far away we still are from the top sides.
The list is still immature IMO and still lacking about a half-a-dozen AFL standard footballers including a couple more A-graders. That can be achieved over the next couple of drafts, trade and free agency periods. So I wouldn't say yet the rebuild is on the verge of failure; it's just still incomplete. There's finally a decent core to build around but there's more to do. Unfortunately the Club doesn't help itself by still talking too much before it can walk
.
To make the finals this year we needed the following to happen:
(i) Our A-graders to continue to be our best and most consistent players moving towards the elite category.So that's Cotch, Lids and Jack. Despite not reaching the dizzy heights I still think in the main across the season they have delivered (albeit minus a couple of games). The problem is they can't and shouldn't be made to carry the side. For the A-graders to shine over 4 quarters you need the supporting cast to share the workload. So we move onto point (ii).
(ii) Those B-graders that stepped up and had good/breakout years in 2012, needed to back it up this year.This IMV has not happened and the most disappointing aspect. Ivan and Grigg who had terrific years last year are well down on their 2012 output. Ivan's form is the biggest concern as there's no reliable back-up and it's affecting the whole side's output especially our midfield.
(iii) Our young blokes coming into their 3rd-4th years needed to step up and have breakout years.Mixed news. Conca and Ellis have stepped up (sadly both injured now) while Vlastuin isn't a 3rd-4th year player but he plays like one. Dusty still needs to build up his tank but IMO he's had a good year and obviously better than in 2012. On the other hand however, Our younger talls haven't stepped up and hence we've still had to rely on the likes of McGuane and now A.Edwards.
(iii) Our new mature recruits needed to be best-22ers in our side. Mixed news again. Chaplin's been a good addition and Knights was starting to be as well before the season-ending injury. So thumbs up to free agency. Petterd was okay before also getting injured. On the other hand, the mature rookie "back-up for injuries" idea has been a flop so far. No doubt Big O would be in the side if the coaching staff felt they could rely on him to relieve Maric whereas Lonergan was useless against his old side in filling in for the injured Tucky. Now this week we're going to try Az Edwards who has come in for the omitted McGuane.
(iv) A bit luck injury-wise.Unlike this time last year when we had pretty much a dream run during the first 9-10 rounds, we've been hit regularly with injuries this year and ones that are keeping best-22ers out for month(s). As a result, we are chopping and changing the side on a weekly basis. Further to that the injuries have hit our 2nd tier types - Tuck, Conca, Ellis, Knights, Grimes and Petterd. This has resulted in our bottom six needing to now step up and be our middle six which they clearly can't against any decent team. We saw in the 2nd half of last year how much we fell away in terms of quality footy played compared to the first half of 2012. So depth or lack of it is still major issue for us as it is for all the middle-of-the-ladder sides vying to scrape into the top 8. Cop half-a-dozen injuries and as a side you reach your breaking point and you drop away from looking quite a decent side to playing ugly crap! Hopefully (touchwood) we don't cop any more serious injuries and start getting back most of the above (Knights gone for good sadly) for the second half of the year.
(v) Beat the sides around and below us (ie. no more bad losses to the likes of Port & Suns in 2012)So far it's a tick as we are winning the games we're expected to. However, our current form line in terms of the quality of footy we're producing is more the concern than the results. Apart from the Bulldogs game, I haven't seen us play more than a half of decent footy yet this season. We've got away with it against the sides below us but as expected not against the sides above us. That for mine stems from points (ii) and (iv). IMO our season along with this point (v) will be decided in the Adelaide and North games coming up after the bye. It will mean the difference between being 9-5 and having a genuine shot at making the finals or being 7-7 and missing out by a few wins again. Right now on form we are facing the latter
but 3-4 inclusions replacing the absolute fill-in duds after the bye can still see us turn it around.
