The AFL website is tipping us to win by 2 and a half goals.
Mega-preview: First qualifying final, Richmond v HawthornMarc McGowan
afl.com.au
Aug 29, 2018 12:01PM
SUMMARYThe first-ever final between the powerhouse clubs promises to be an MCG classic – and one that will shape where this September series heads. The winner advances to a preliminary final, but the loser will face a do-or-die final against Melbourne or Geelong. Reigning premier Richmond's form was shaky down the home-and-away season stretch by its lofty standards, whereas Hawthorn, other than a below-par outing against St Kilda in the penultimate round, powered home. Will the Tigers return to their best? Are the Hawks a serious threat? How will Jaeger O'Meara perform in his first final? Will Hawthorn play two ruckmen? Is there a selection surprise in store? Can Shane Edwards defy his underwhelming record against the Hawks? Only eight sleeps until we get some answers.
WHERE AND WHEN: MCG, Thursday, September 6, 7.20pm AEST
WHAT HAPPENED THIS YEAR?Round 3: Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
The Hawks kicked five of the last six goals to slash a game-high 39-point deficit 90 seconds into the fourth quarter to a flattering 13 by the final siren. Trent Cotchin was best afield and Jack Riewoldt slotted four goals, while Hawthorn ball magnet Tom Mitchell's 42 disposals were 11 more than anyone else.
LAST FIVE TIMESR3, 2018, Richmond 15.12 (102) d Hawthorn 13.11 (89) at the MCG
R20, 2017, Richmond 13.15 (93) d Hawthorn 9.10 (64) at the MCG
R18, 2016, Hawthorn 16.18 (114) d Richmond 5.14 (44) at the MCG
R7, 2016, Hawthorn 21.10 (136) d Richmond 13.12 (90) at the MCG
R18, 2015, Richmond 10.11 (71) d Hawthorn 7.11 (53) at the MCG
WHAT TO WATCH FORRichmond1. Patrick Dangerfield has enjoyed success against the Hawks as a forward, so the Tigers may consider using Dustin Martin in the same way. Trent Cotchin, Kane Lambert and Dion Prestia are good enough to hold the midfield fort.
2. Star opposition onballers got hold of Richmond at different stages this year, and Hawk Tom Mitchell was one of those in round three, when he accumulated 42 disposals and 11 clearances. Could the Tigers go with Cotchin or Jack Graham again on Mitchell – or maybe Prestia?
3. Richmond ranks fourth in 2018 for points scored from centre bounces despite Toby Nankervis' lack of hit-outs. But the Tigers have slipped to 13th in the past month, so don't be surprised if there are some tweaks in how they set up in the middle.
Hawthorn1. Operation: Curb Dusty. Hawks tagger Dan Howe's five-match suspension ended in round 23 and he will play limited minutes in the VFL on Saturday. Howe did a decent job on Martin in round three and will run with the Tiger again.
2. Everyone has a theory on how to beat Richmond, but the popular one is to kick more, handball less and rack up uncontested marks. Methodical ball movement is a Hawthorn trademark, so it might be the perfect storm.
3. Ben McEvoy should have the edge in the ruck over Nankervis, but will the Hawks select Jon Ceglar to try ramming home that advantage? Ceglar can be effective in attack, too, so he could help engage Richmond's star-studded defence.
THE SIX POINTS1. The Tigers led by 39 points early in the last quarter in their clash this season before the Hawks finished strongly to reduce the final margin to 13. Jack Riewoldt booted four goals for Richmond and Jarryd Roughead kicked the same for the Hawks.
2. Richmond finished the season ranked second for scoring, inside 50s and marks inside 50, while Hawthorn ranks sixth for goals, third for inside 50s and fifth for marks inside 50.
3. The Tigers have won their last three finals, but haven't won four in a row since they achieved it between 1980 and 1982. The Hawks are aiming for their first finals triumph since the 2015 Grand Final.
4. Hawthorn places second among the 2018 finalists for September experience with a combined 265 games, led by Shaun Burgoyne's 33. Richmond comes in seventh with a total of 114 finals.
5. The Tigers finished the home and away season as the best fourth-quarter team, winning 14 of them and boasting a margin of +205 points. Hawthorn's best term was the third at +213.
6. Both teams have five players in the top 50 of the Schick AFL Player Ratings, with Dustin Martin the leading Tiger at No.2 – down one spot this week – and Ben McEvoy the top Hawk at No.13.
WHAT THE COACHES SAYDamien Hardwick: "We had (Tom Mitchell) and Trent (Cotchin) going head to head, then we went Jack Graham at various stages. We were happy and I think Hawthorn would be the same … (Mitchell)'s a tough player to stop. He's so clean. You can tag him and he might get 30; he's just so effective, he's so good and he's so smart."
Alastair Clarkson: "Both sides have been highly decorated sides in the competition, have very, very competitive, strong supporter bases with strong membership and it's extraordinary they haven't played against each other (in a final). But we defy history this next game, where we get an opportunity to play one another for big stakes."
IT'S A BIG WEEK FOR …Hawthorn will welcome James Sicily back from a broken wrist for his first match since round 17. The Hawks firebrand was headed for a maiden All Australian selection before that injury and is a match-winner at his best, but will the Tigers try to get under his skin? Sicily missed the clubs' earlier clash through suspension.
PREDICTION: Richmond by 15 pointshttp://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-08-29/megapreview-first-qualifying-final-richmond-v-hawthorn
