Richmond vs Geelong @ the M.C.G. - 2nd Preliminary Final, 2019

[one-eyed]

Second preliminary final: Richmond v Geelong

Peter Ryan
The Age
15 September 2019

Richmond will start overwhelming favourites to bounce back from last season’s shock preliminary final loss against Collingwood and defeat Geelong on Friday night at the MCG if Tom Hawkins is unable to have his one-match suspension reduced to a fine on appeal.

Hawkins’ absence could well remove the Tigers’ biggest weakness, which is coping with the game’s best power forwards without champion defender Alex Rance who has been missing since round one with a knee injury.

The Cats opened Richmond up during a brilliant patch of football in round 12 when Geelong was at their best and the Tigers were battling to keep their head above water as injuries decimated their line up in the first half of the season.

But since that result the Tigers have won 10 games in succession following the bye, finishing third and charging into premiership favouritism after they defeated the Brisbane Lions in last week’s qualifying final.

Geelong have been inconsistent after the bye but they showed in their semi-final win over West Coast they are capable of matching it with the best despite many pundits writing them off after their disappointing effort against Collingwood.

HISTORY LESSON

Richmond broke a 13-game losing streak against the Cats when they defeated Geelong in the 2017 qualifying final and proceeded to win two tight clashes in 2018 before the Cats thrashed the Tigers at the MCG in round 12 this season by 67 points.

The Tigers were without Jack Riewoldt, David Astbury, Brandon Ellis, Shai Bolton, Nathan Broad, Toby Nankervis, Jayden Short and Kane Lambert in round 12 while the Cats will have Sam Menegola and Quinton Narkle replacing Mitch Duncan and Jordan Clark from that game.

Hawkins kicked four goals in round 12 matched up on Ryan Garthwaite as the Cats resisted an early onslaught from the Tigers kicking seven goals in the second quarter after being held goalless in the first quarter.

X-FACTOR

No surprises in the Tigers’ X-factor with key forward Tom Lynch in much better form than he was when the two teams met in round 12. The former Gold Coast skipper crossed to Richmond for this moment, playing in front of 90,000 people in a big final under lights at the MCG and the game arrives with the 26-year-old in good form having kicked 30 goals in the past 11 games.

The Cats have used Mark Blicavs in defence, in the ruck and on the wing in the past three games remaining unafraid to defy popular opinion to use them where they think he can help the team best. Who knows what they have up their sleeve against Richmond but Blicavs – who remains an outstanding defender – is a wildcard that will test the Tigers planning.

TACTICS

It starts at the centre bounce with the territory battle critical to the result. Richmond are ranked third in the AFL for inside 50 differentials and have Dustin Martin, Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards and Dion Prestia ready to take on Patrick Dangerfield, Joel Selwood, Tim Kelly and Cam Guthrie at ground level.

Whichever team gains ascendancy in that area will be able to get their turnover game going with the two teams the best in the competition at creating scores from turnovers and locking the opposition in their back half.

Geelong hunted the ball against West Coast and were much braver when they moved it, instinctive decisions allowing them to recover from mistakes more effectively and the constant movement ensuring numbers ran to support.

The Tigers just push the ball forward in any manner to create a scoring chance and will force the Cats midfielders to work back with their ability to steady when challenged critical.

In the end attitude will be more important than any tactical initiative as Geelong showed in the first two rounds of the finals with their pressure much higher against the Eagles and their willingness to take the game on obvious.
Reducing champion goalkicking midfielder Dustin Martin when he goes forward will be critical but the Cats’ Jed Bews and Jake Kolodjashnij are both capable opponents.

PREDICTION

Geelong will start well again and test Richmond’s defence which was a little leaky early in both round 22 and the qualifying final.

However, the one-match ban of Hawkins increases the degree of difficulty for Geelong not only removing a major avenue for goal but taking Richmond’s main problem away.

They can now play David Astbury on Esava Ratugolea and Dylan Grimes on anyone without having to ask themselves whether they need additional defensive back up.

That tips the scales in the Tigers favour with their experience in the past two preliminary finals likely to hold them in good stead as they seek passage through to the grand final.

If, however, Hawkins is cleared then the equation changes.

Richmond by 17 points

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/second-preliminary-final-richmond-v-geelong-20190914-p52rc6.html

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Meanwhile, Trent Cotchin has empathy for Tom Hawkins after the Geelong forward received a one-match suspension for striking West Coast defender Will Schofield in Friday's semi-final.

"Yeah I do (have empathy for Hawkins). I mean, the reality is you want everyone playing - whether it's injury, suspension - we want all of our best players playing the game or everyone given an opportunity," Cotchin said.

"But it is what it is."

Cotchin faced a nervous wait in 2017 after a bump on GWS's Dylan Shiel in the preliminary final but was found to have no case to answer for the contact, leaving him free to play in that year's decider.

He said waiting for a review of his incident hadn't played on his mind as the Tigers prepared for the Grand Final - which they won - as he focused on the team rather than his own fate.

"It didn't (play on my mind) really," he said.

"I think I was more so celebrating in the fact that we had made it through to our first grand final in a long time and I was just excited about the opportunity for our club, not so much myself.

"And I think that held me in pretty good stead with my thinking and how I prepared that week anyway."

Source: AFL website

[one-eyed]

Jane Bunn on Ch 7 news tonight said up to 10mm of rain hits Friday evening into Saturday morning.


Friday 20 September

Summary
    Min 16
    Max 21
    Showers increasing.
    Possible rainfall: 4 to 10 mm
    Chance of any rain: 80%

Melbourne area

Cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely later in the day. Winds northerly 30 to 45 km/h turning westerly 15 to 20 km/h later in the day.

http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/melbourne.shtml

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McGuane: How Cats can fill Hawkins void

Mick McGuane
Herald Sun
16 September 2019

If Tom Hawkins fails in his bid to avoid suspension for this week’s preliminary final against Richmond, how can the Cats replace him?

The Geelong spearhead has long been the focal point of his side’s attack and his absence will put the pressure on Esava Ratugolea to be the No. 1 man up forward.

But Collingwood great Mick McGuane says the return of Gary Rohan and ability of Harry Taylor to pinch hit in attack can cover for Hawkins’ absence.

While he’s tipping the Tigers, McGuane has identified the pair as crucial if Geelong stands any hope of an upset.

HOW THEY PLAY

In many ways, these two teams are just about complete opposites.

Richmond loves chaos. It’s all about a surge mentality, keeping the ball in motion and moving it forward by any means possible.

The Tigers’ ball movement and ability to hurt teams off turnover is a strength and they are not afraid to use the corridor.

Geelong is all about contest and controlling the tempo of the game, through careful ball movement around the boundary as they bring the ball out of their back half.

The Cats are the hardest team to score against from turnovers this year as a result.

But Richmond ranks No. 1 in that stat since the bye, also boasting strong defensive foundations.


RICHMOND

THE KEY

Keep the ball moving. Slow ball movement is only going to suit Geelong’s back six and let them get set. It’s all about surge and metres gained through forward handball and forward kicks for the Tigers. Since the bye, the Tigers have averaged 63 points a game from turnovers, ranked No. 1 in the competition, on the back of winning an average of 76 intercept possessions. Turnover is where they do their most damage and why playing fast is a priority.

THE CHALLENGE

If the long-range weather forecast is right, the challenge will be defensive 50 ground ball hunt for the Tigers. A predicted wet night will suit the Cats, who are the best ground ball team in the competition and boast strong ground-level players forward in Gary Ablett, Luke Dahlhaus, Tom Atkins and Gryan Miers. We know Richmond has strong intercept marks in Nick Vlastuin and Dylan Grimes, but if the ball gets to ground level the Cats could do some damage.

THE THEME

Serve it up to the Cats in the contest. Geelong has been the No. 1 contested ball team in the competition all season and won count against the Eagles by 23 on Friday night. While Richmond tends to step up this area of its game in finals, it hasn’t been a strength across the season but needs to be here.

IF I WAS RICHMOND …

I’d be sending Dylan Grimes to Patrick Dangerfield when he spends time forward, which might happen a lot more without Tom Hawkins in the Cats’ attack.

David Astbury goes to Esava Ratugolea and then I’d give Nick Vlastuin, Nathan Broad and Bachar Houli scope to roll off their opponents and lead the Tigers’ intercept game.

Around stoppage, Jack Graham has to go to Tim Kelly in a run-with role.

Kelly is not generally the first possession winner for the Cats, but he often kickstarts their offence with the first handball or kick out of congestion.

Graham needs to be accountable and ensure he is not a bee to a honey pot around the ball.


GEELONG

THE KEY

It’s all about the contest for the Cats. They were strong in the air and at ground level against West Coast last week and it showed on the scoreboard. In its qualifying final against Brisbane, Richmond lost contested ball in the first quarter by 14 before getting itself back into the game with improvement in that area. To give themselves the best chance, the Cats must dominate contested ball throughout the match.

THE CHALLENGE

The selection table. What does Chris Scott do in the absence of Tom Hawkins? Hawkins has played every game this year and kicked 56.32 which is a huge chunk of Geelong’s score. His absence leaves Esava Ratugolea as No. 1 forward. He was super against the Eagles as the second-fiddle, but will draw a lot more focus without Hawkins by his side. He must make a contest and at least get the ball to ground.

THE THEME

Continue to play the Cats way. The Tigers want ping-pong chaos. Geelong can’t afford to let that happen. Geelong games this year average the fourth-fewest turnovers and it’s because of their control by foot through a boundary line, slow-kicking game from the backline which protects turnovers. The Cats have to ensure they retain that style to keep the game on their terms.

IF I WAS GEELONG ….

First thing is first — selection.

If Gary Rohan’s fit, he comes in for Hawkins. A forward for a forward, albeit different types of players. Start Rohan out of the goalsquare.

I’d also be entertaining the selection of Jordan Clark, if he’s fit, given the opposition and his ability to play on the Richmond small forwards.

Tom Stewart must go to Dustin Martin when the Tigers’ star spends time forward.

Joel Selwood must again be in the thick of the action around the ball as he was on Friday.

And I’d swing Harry Taylor forward as various stages during the game, but not permanently.

Esava Ratugolea is going to need some support at some stage without Tom Hawkins.



PREDICTION: Richmond by 20



MATCH ODDS (TAB)

Richmond $1.40

Geelong $3.00


FLAG ODDS

Richmond $2.30

Geelong $5.00


INJURIES

RICHMOND

Sydney Stack (ankle) indefinite

Jack Higgins (brain bleed) season

Alex Rance (knee) season

GEELONG

Gary Rohan (knee) test

Jordan Clark (elbow) test

Mitch Duncan (knee) 1 week

Tom Hawkins (suspension) 1 week

Jordan Cunico (ankle) season

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/teams/geelong/mick-mcguane-preliminary-final-preview-richmond-v-geelong-how-can-cats-cover-for-suspended-tom-hawkins/news-story/774a4d33689815032dde0660a8f2a2b4

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95,000 expected according to the MCG website.

https://www.mcg.org.au/whats-on/events-calendar/2019/september/richmond-v-geelong-cats

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8 changes since we last played Geelong.

WHO DIDN'T PLAY IN ROUND 12?

Richmond

- Jack Riewoldt
- David Astbury
- Toby Nankervis
- Jayden Short
- Kane Lambert
- Nathan Broad
- Brandon Ellis
- Shai Bolton

Geelong

- Jed Bews
- Quinton Narkle
- Sam Menegola

That’s a key chunk of the Tigers’ current backline — that faced Brisbane just over a week ago — along with three-time Coleman medallist Riewoldt and premiership ruckman Nankervis.

Former Essendon and St Kilda great Brendon Goddard said Geelong wouldn’t be taking too much notice of their previous meeting against the Tigers.

“I don’t think the Cats are that naive that they’ll say ‘We’ll be taking a fair bit of confidence from that’ because they the Tigers) were a totally different team,” Goddard told Channel 7.

“And Richmond have been the best team in the competition, hands down, over the last eight weeks.”

Asked of that game against Richmond after his side’s semi-final win, Scott acknowledged his squad would face a new-look Richmond but he wasn’t completely discounting the match.

“The last time you played a team’s relevant,” Scott said.

“Tonight it was round 5 (that we last played West Coast) ... yeah they (Richmond) had a few players out (when we played them last time).

“I think they’re playing better than they were. It’d be easy enough for them to convince people of that, but it doesn’t mean nothing.”

While the Tigers have welcomed back some big names the Cats, on the flip side, will be without supreme ball user Mitch Duncan and almost certainly Tom Hawkins when the teams meet this week.

Hawkins was vital in round 12, having the better of young Tiger Ryan Garthwaite on his way to four goals.

Geelong’s barnstorming first half of the home and away season culminated in that 67-point demolition of the Tigers, with the Cats’ yoyo-ing since their bye as they’ve followed a strict lose-win pattern in their past 12 matches.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/more-news/richmond-to-field-far-stronger-lineup-against-geelong-than-earlyseason-mcg-meeting/news-story/b3f975fb98b82801a17ae5922335f459

[lamington]

God I hope we knock the cats out and send Chris Scott sulking into the press conference

[big tone]

God I hope we knock the cats out and send Chris Scott sulking into the press conference

Me too....

My dislike for that wanker isn’t healthy but I cannot help it.

[YellowandBlackBlood]

Hawkins out!

[one-eyed]

The AFL website is tipping us to win by around 3 goals.


Preliminary final preview: Richmond v Geelong

AFL.com.au
Sarah Black
Sep 16, 2019

Where and when: MCG, Friday September 20, 7.50pm

What it means for Richmond: A win will add another chapter to the extraordinary story of the Tigers' 2019 season. They dropped as low as ninth mid-year, have had four on-field captains, and suffered injuries to a raft of big-name players.

What it means for Geelong: A chance to get the preliminary final monkey off the back. The Cats have lost their past three opportunities to get into the Grand Final, in 2017, 2016 and 2013. 

The stat: Richmond was without eight of its current best 22 the last time these sides met in round 12, resulting in a 67-point loss for the Tigers. David Astbury, Shai Bolton, Nathan Broad, Brandon Ellis, Kane Lambert, Toby Nankervis and Jack Riewoldt all missed the clash.

The match-up: Dustin Martin v Patrick Dangerfield

While the two are unlikely to go head-to-head, the dynamic superstars will go a long way to influencing their teams' fortunes, capable of dominating in the middle or out of the goalsquare. 'Danger' is ranked fifth in the AFL Player Ratings, while 'Dusty' is seventh.

It's a big week for: Gary Ablett

Could a loss signal the end of Ablett's storied career? The Little Master struggled to get into last week's semi-final win, finishing with 14 touches and zero goals, his third-lowest tally for the year. But you can never write off an Ablett in September.

Big call: Dan Rioli has a habit of hitting his straps during finals and will kick three goals.

Prediction: Tigers by 17 points.

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-09-16/preliminary-final-preview-richmond-v-geelong

[one-eyed]

Mitch Duncan has been ruled out for the Cats. Gary Rohan expected to come in for Hawkins.

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl-daily-rolling-footy-news-for-tuesday-september-17/live-coverage/f8f63e15c3d2d554b9e154abb143d61a

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Can the Cats beat Richmond without Tom Hawkins?

Niall Seewang, Jake Michaels and Matt Walsh
ESPN
17 September 2019

NS: It obviously makes it a lot tougher but recent history suggests the Cats should have a glimmer of hope without their main attacking focal point. Remarkably, Geelong have won seven out of their past eight games without Hawkins including wins over Collingwood (twice) and Richmond in the past three years. That should give Chris Scott's team some confidence that all is not lost. Their best chance will be to turn Friday night's contest into a low-scoring scrap, considering they boast the stingiest defence in the league this year.

JM: Of course the can, but I really don't think they will. Since the mid-season bye, Richmond is averaging 99.4 points per game and while Geelong's defence is the best in the competition, they just aren't restricting the Tigers to less than 75 points on Friday night at the MCG. I just don't see how the Cats can kick 12 or 13 goals to win without a guy who has won the last eight consecutive Geelong leading goalkicker awards.

MW: They're going to find it tough. As Jake says, the Tigers have been scoring with ease in recent weeks, and the Cats simply don't have the firepower to go with them. Geelong will need to somehow keep the Tigers to no more than 10 or 11 goals to be in with a sniff, and with Hawkins -- arguably one of the comp's most accurate key forwards -- missing, it's hard to see where 12 or 13 goals are going to come from.

https://www.espn.com/afl/story/_/id/27628500/afl-round-table-where-luke-hodge-go-2001-re-draft

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Lachie Henderson is likely to replace Tom Hawkins on Friday night against Richmond Tigers at MCG.

https://twitter.com/TheRealBozza1

[lamington]

The same lachie Henderson we always embarrass at the G?

[one-eyed]

Why versatile Cat should get run-with role on red-hot Tiger

By SEN
19 Sep 2019

Terry Wallace believes Geelong should consider using utility Mark Blicavs in a run-with role on Richmond superstar Dustin Martin.

Blicavs, 28, has played in a variety of positions throughout his 157-game career, but has excelled in a key defensive post in 2019, winning selection in the initial 40-man All-Australian squad.

A tactical reshuffle saw the dual best and fairest winner deployed on a wing in the Cats’ semi-final win over West Coast, underlying his flexibility and elite endurance.

With Martin looming large, Wallace thinks Blicavs has the tools to quell the Brownlow Medallist that could sway the midfield battle in Geelong’s favour.

“I would love to see him (Blicavs) take on Dustin Martin,” he told SEN Afternoons.

“He’s taken on (Scott) Pendlebury in the past. He hasn’t got a definitive role that they absolutely desperately need him for.

“He can be a backup ruckman, he can be backup as a defender, they didn’t need him there for the last few weeks. The wing role was ok; wasn’t a dominate role … to me he can go with Martin.

“He can take him as a backman, he can take him through the middle of the ground, he’s got a tank where Martin is not going to get rid of him from that area.

“It allows you to have (Patrick) Dangerfield, (Joel) Selwood, (Tim) Kelly and (Cam) Guthrie all up your sleeve. If it actually works - if you can take out their best, you might be able to get control of the middle of the ground completely.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2019/09/19/why-versatile-cat-should-get-run-with-role-on-red-hot-tiger/