AFL Draft Power Rankings Top 20: A ‘fab four’, a peloton and an even spread from thereBen Waterworth
Fox Sports
September 16th, 2021 5:13 pmYou could almost split this year’s AFL draft crop into three sections.
There’s a ‘fab four’ followed by a peloton of four to six players. Then you could almost throw a blanket over the next 40, such is the evenness of talent across the class.
With the help of Champion Data and recruiters, foxfooty.com.au ranks the top 20 prospects of this year’s draft class just over two months out from the big night.
1. Nick Daicos (Oakleigh Chargers)Park the famous father-son link and focus on the player — and Daicos is widely viewed by recruiters as the best player in this year’s draft class. The definition of a ball magnet at 183cm, Daicos led the NAB League for disposals (35.8 ) and uncontested possessions (23.0) this year, while he also kicked two goals per match. He averaged a lazy 40-plus disposals from his last three matches of the season. Daicos, the son of Collingwood champion and premiership star Peter Daicos, is almost certain to attract a bid from a rival club early. If North doesn’t pull the trigger with Pick 1, the Giants will at Pick 2. Nonetheless, the Pies will eventually have enough picks to match the bid for Daicos, who’ll slot right into a Magpies on-ball brigade in need of another genuine ball-winner.
2. Jason Horne-Francis (South Adelaide)An outstanding South Australian midfield prospect at 183cm who’s widely considered the best player in the ‘open’ draft pool. Horne-Francis was thrown in the deep end this season, playing 18 SANFL league games for the Panthers. His 16.1 disposal average wasn’t breathtaking, but he showed he can have an impact at either end, rating elite for intercepts marks (0.9) and above average for goals (0.7). His three-goal, 22-disposal against Central District last month, though, was eye-catching. Horne-Francis is renowned for his power and aggression at the contest, but his ball use and outside class is just as impressive. The Crows could make a bold play to trade up the draft order to secure him, but it’s hard to see the Kangaroos accepting that and passing this young star up.
3. Sam Darcy (Oakleigh Chargers)Another famous Dogs name is almost certain to return to the kennel in Darcy — the son of best and fairest and All-Australian Luke Darcy. And he’s not just any ordinary key-position player. At 204cm, Darcy possesses superb versatility and athleticism, which allow him to play in any third of the ground. He spent time in defence in his three NAB league matches and averaged 3.3 intercept marks and 5.7 intercept possessions. Then Darcy played forward in his two trial matches and averaged 3.0 contested marks, while his six-goal haul for Vic Metro in a trial game against Vic Country saw him shoot up club draft boards. The Dogs will bank points to ensure they can match a Darcy bid, which could come as early as Pick 2.
4. Finn Callaghan (Sandringham Dragons)One recruiter said there’s “a bit of Bontempelli” about the way Callaghan moves in and out of stoppages. At 189cm, Callaghan is a great size for the modern-day midfielder with terrific kicking skills, while he also has great poise, both in tight and in space, to help him break lines. He played his first three NAB League games playing more as midfield-defender, averaging just 18.7 disposals. But he really separated himself from the pack in his last three matches as a more permanent midfielder, averaging 30.0 disposals, 4.7 clearances and 5.3 score involvements. He rounds off the ‘fab four’ of Daicos, Horne-Francis and Darcy in this year’s draft class.
5. Ben Hobbs (GWV Rebels)Any club with a top-end pick looking for a contested possession winner should look at this guy. The 183cm inside midfielder is a master at winning the ball at the coalface while his clearance work is excellent thanks to his quick hands. Yet unlike a lot of inside midfielders, Hobbs has great composure with the ball when in tight, often opting against thumping the ball forward by foot. Excluding one match where he got injured, he averaged 29.2 disposals, 6.2 clearances and kicked 0.8 goals in the NAB League. But Hobbs was arguably more impressive in the trial matches, averaging 31.5 disposals and 1.5 goals from those two games.
6. Josh Ward (Northern Knights)One for SuperCoach owners to keep an eye on when he hits AFL club land. The 181cm midfielder’s stocks have risen significantly this year, averaging 30.2 disposals in the NAB League — the second-most behind only Daicos — off the back of terrific workrate. Ward finished the season strong with 33-plus disposals from his last three matches. Recruiters earlier in the year had some doubts over his ability to hit the scoreboard — he kicked two behinds and failed to kick a goal in the NAB League — but he managed 3.3 from his two trial matches.
7. Josh Gibcus (GWV Rebels)Think Jake Lever. The quintessential modern-day defender at 195cm, recruiters can see Gibcus becoming a genuine second backman at AFL club land that can play man-on-man but also intercept. He was ranked first among defenders who played at least five NAB League matches this season for intercept possessions (7.9) and intercept marks (3.2). Although he defended just eight one-on-one contests from his 10 NAB League matches, so it’ll be fascinating to see how he develops in that area at AFL level. Still, recruiters say he has a “ridiculous” vertical leap, while he also has strong aerobic capacity and good footy nous.
8. Mac Andrew (Dandenong Stingrays)The Melbourne Next Generation Academy prospect has probably been the biggest bolter across the season. He would have to put on size and ultimately be a long-term prospect for any club that picked him up, but his athleticism and ability to play across all thirds of the ground at 200cm excites AFL clubs. Excluding his NAB League match where he got injured, Andrew averaged 15.2 disposals from his five games – the most of any ruckman – according to Champion Data. His hit-out-to-advantage rate of 18.1 per cent was also ranked fourth among the NAB League’s top 50 ruckmen for ruck contests. The AFL has changed the in-draft NGA bidding rules for 2021, with clubs with existing links to multicultural and Indigenous Academy players unable to match bids inside the top 20 selections. While Andrew is raw, recruiters believe there’s “no chance” he’s slipping outside of the top 20, especially after his performance in a Vic Metro trial game at Windy Hill earlier this year. It means the Dees are almost certain to miss out on him.
9. Josh Rachele (Murray Bushrangers)An uber-talented forward-midfielder blessed with goalkicking nous and x-factor, Rachele looms as one of the most fascinating and exciting prospects. The 180cm goalsneak kicked 11 goals from four NAB League matches — the best goals-per-match average in the competition — while he also ranked second for average score involvements (7.5). Rachele, though, was used sparingly in the midfield, averaging 18.5 disposals and 2.5 clearances. He also won the Kevin Sheehan medal in 2019 as the best player in the Under 16 national championships representing Vic Country. Recruiters are wary of taking a punt on a small forward so early in the order, but on talent alone he’s worthy of a top-five pick.
10. Jye Amiss (East Perth)Arguably the best key forward in the open draft at 195cm. Amiss kicked a WAFL colts season-high 51 goals this season — the most by a player in that competition since 2015. Just as impressively, he only kicked 14 behinds, proving he’s a dead-eye in front of goal in an AFL era where there aren’t a lot of accurate shooters. Amiss also ranked second in the WAFL colts for contested marks (3.0) and No. 1 for marks inside 50 (3.5), yet also has good athleticism below his knees. He’d be perfect for Essendon at Pick 11, but he might be off the board by then, especially if the Dockers want to fill their key forward chasm — with a local WA lad — via the draft.
11. Neil Erasmus (Subiaco)Hard to split Erasmus and Amiss as WA’s best prospect. The 188cm midfielder had a stunning start to his season and has only improved as the year has progressed. He was the second-highest ranked player in the WAFL colts, according to Champion Data, and ranked among the top five players for disposals, contested possessions, intercept marks, clearances and score assists. Erasmus averaged 28 disposals from his four WAFL colts games, but showed in last year’s grand final in the same competition that he can be dangerous up forward, kicking four goals as a bottom-ager in Subiaco’s premiership triumph.
12. Tyler Sonsie (Eastern Ranges)On talent alone, Sonsie is a top-five draft prospect. But a lack of continuity this year, both due to injury and Covid-enforced interruptions, has probably seen the 181cm prospect slip a little. Recruiters, though, still fondly remember his Under 16s national championships two years ago, earning the MVP award in Vic Metro’s undefeated carnival-winning side. He then played a key role in the back-half of the Eastern Ranges’ Nab league campaign, earning a spot in the grand final team as a 16-year-old. Sonsie started the 2021 season well with 34 disposals and two goals in his first NAB League game before an eye-catching two-goal, 24-disposal game for the Box Hill Hawks under Sam Mitchell in his first VFL match. But from his other four NAB League matches, he averaged just 20 disposals and less than one goal a game. Recruiters know he’s had injury issues this season, but would still like to see him work on his defensive running.
13. Josh Goater (Calder Cannons)Looms as a fan favourite at AFL level. At 190cm, Goater is an athletic yet slightly taller prospect compared to some of the other midfielders at the top of his draft class. Interestingly, he won more disposals in defence than in the midfield this season. In his first five NAB League matches, he averaged 21.6 disposals 5.2 clearance as a midfielder then 30.5 disposals, 4.0 intercept marks and 8.5 intercept possessions. Goater could be a player that could bolt into the top 10 or be on the cusp of the first round come draft night.
14. Josh Sinn (Sandringham Dragons)Speed, metres gained and speed. Sinn has shown promising dash off half-back with genuine burst and leg speed, but if he can improve his aerobic capacity a bit more, he could be a full-time midfielder at AFL level. As a 186cm impact line-breaker, Sinn’s NAB League numbers in a frustrating, injury-interrupted season weren’t huge, averaging just 17.6 disposals. But his run and carry ability saw him average a combined 6.8 inside 50s and rebound 50s — the most of any player to average fewer than 20 disposals. He was Sandringham’s skipper too, so he possesses strong leadership capabilities.
15. Matthew Johnson (Subiaco)Recruiters were probably expecting Johnson to improve a bit more as the season progressed, especially due to the opportunities WA prospects had compared to their eastern-state prospects. But they still have high hopes for the tall midfielder (192cm), who got a taste of all three WAFL competitions in 2021. He averaged 21.8 disposals and 119 ranking points in six colts matches before getting an upgrade to league level where he averaged just 6.7 disposals and 31 ranking points from three WAFL matches. But Johnson has impressed in recent reserves matches, including a 23-disposal, nine-mark, one-goal performance in Subiaco’s elimination final win over West Perth.
16. Arlo Draper (South Adelaide)Might be a little low for some recruiters, but could land anywhere between Picks 10 and 20 on draft night at this stage. An inside midfielder at 185cm, Draper played across all three SANFL competitions this season. In the Under 18s he averaged 24.4 disposals and 6.6 clearances. In the reserves he averaged 15.7 disposals and 4.0 clearances. Draper got two games at league level last month, accumulating 11 touches in both games. But his ability to hit the scoreboard at Under 18s level was crucial, booting 8.2 from his first four games this year. Again a player that could push the top 10 or the end of the first round.
17. Campbell Chesser (Sandringham Dragons)Chesser played more in the midfield this season, but might be suited as a rebounding defender at AFL level. He didn’t find as much of the ball as other top prospects, averaging just 18.7 disposals in the NAB League with a contested possession rate of 27 per cent. But his 4.7 inside 50s were the most of any player to average fewer than 20 disposals. He’s been hit hard by injury and Covid-enforced season pauses over the past two seasons, Chesser has really impressed recruiters with his attitude.
18. Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera (Glenelg)A first-round bolter after an excellent 2021 campaign where he showed off his excellent kicking skills and ability to link his teammates up between the arcs. He spent the majority of the first half of the season in the reserves where he had an impact across a lot of areas, averaging 15.5 disposals, 3.5 intercept possessions, 4.7 score involvements and 0.4 goals. Wanganeen-Milera then was upgraded to Glenelg’s league team and fitted in with aplomb, averaging 11.0 disposals and 5.0 handball receives. As his surname suggests, the 187cm prospect has a great footy pedigree, being the nephew of Essendon and Port Adelaide champion Gavin Wanganeen and the son of Terry Milera, who played 30 games for the Saints last decade.
19. Matthew Roberts (South Adelaide)An injury-interrupted season, but has worked his way into his club’s SANFL league team late in the year alongside Jason Horne-Francis. Roberts absolutely blitzed his first three Under 18s games, kicking five goals and averaging 32.0 disposals, 8.3 marks, 7.7 tackles, 7.7 inside 50s, 6.3 clearances and a lazy 201 ranking points. That saw him elevated to South Adelaide’s league team where he’s played five games. While his form at top level has been a little patchy, Roberts has played two promising matches against the bigger SANFL bodies, finishing with 20 touches and seven inside 50s against North Adelaide before a two-goal, 13-disposal outing against West Adelaide. With good endurance, work ethic and a developing inside-outside balance, Roberts could be a player a club picks then could play senior footy pretty early next season.
20. Sam Butler (GWV Rebels)If he’s as exciting as his brother is at AFL level, we’ve got another fan favourite. A shrewd player with great strength at the contest, Butler — the brother of premiership Tiger and Saints forward Dan Butler — has made his way up draft boards as the year has progressed to be in first-round contention. He kicked three goals against the Falcons in Round 2 but has looked just as capable when playing up the field. Among mid-forwards in the NAB League, Butler ranked first for contested possessions (9.2), tackles (4.8 ) and goals (0.8 ). Of note, he averaged more disposals, contested possessions and tackles than his brother when he was in the NAB League, but Dan averaged 1.2 goals per match.
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