Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]

[one-eyed]

We survive in the Eight for another week only because all four sides below us lost as well.

The Run Home after Round 18:

afl.com.au
17 July 2022

8. Richmond

36 points (nine wins, eight losses) 115.0 per cent

Saturday's shock defeat to North Melbourne shapes as being particularly costly for the Tigers, who have a difficult run of games in the next three weeks. They return to Marvel Stadium, where they have lost their past four, to take on Fremantle on Friday night before a clash with Brisbane at the MCG and a trip to face Port Adelaide. A slightly more comfortable finish follows with clashes against Hawthorn and Essendon, but Richmond looks set to need to win at least two of its next three – and beat the Hawks and Bombers – just to avoid missing the finals. – Dejan Kalinic

The run home
R19: Fremantle @ Marvel Stadium
R20: Brisbane @ MCG
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval
R22: Hawthorn @ MCG
R23: Essendon @ MCG

https://www.afl.com.au/news/798736/

[one-eyed]

Race for eighth ON but Tigers let off hook: Run Home after Round 18

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 18th, 2022

8. RICHMOND (9-8, 115%)

Remaining games

Round 19: Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Round 20: Brisbane Lions at the MCG

Round 21: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Round 22: Hawthorn at the MCG

Round 23: Essendon at the MCG

Historic chance of playing finals from current record: 46%

Remaining fixture difficulty: 9th-hardest


Oh dear.

An almost automatic win against North Melbourne has been baked into Richmond’s projections for a while; they should’ve won (on expected score they won by four-plus goals), but poor goalkicking and more late-game brainfades cost them another close one.

This is why we had been saying Richmond was the strong favourite for eighth... as long as nothing went catastrophically wrong. Well, losing from 40 points up one week, then losing to one of the worst teams since the competition went national, counts as things going catastrophically wrong.

The only good news was Gold Coast’s loss to Essendon, which makes it much harder for anyone below the Tigers to reach 13 wins.

The Tigers are still our favourites for eighth, but barely, facing the same equation as the other nine-win teams St Kilda and the Bulldogs - two games against the bottom six, then three tough ones.

Getting to 13 wins would now be an accomplishment - they would either need to beat two top four teams, or one and a Port Adelaide side in Adelaide, where they’ve beaten the Swans, Suns and Dogs at home.

But they probably don’t need to reach 13. It’d help. 12 may be enough, as long as the wins are by big enough margins, and the Suns don’t blow out North Melbourne by 100 in the final round or something crazy.

The Tigers have the edge. We’d still be surprised if they missed the eight from here - but not shocked. It’s a genuine race.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.9 wins, finishing 8th

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PROJECTED WEEK 1 OF FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Fremantle at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Collingwood vs Richmond at the MCG

Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Sydney Swans vs Carlton at the SCG

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Melbourne vs Brisbane Lions at the MCG

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-the-run-home-after-round-18-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/86fc0ba0c3f5024897209175dcbabe32

[one-eyed]

Buckley still thinks we will make the finals and finish 7th.

Nathan Buckley’s top eight below:

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. Collingwood
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Carlton

“I’ve got the Dogs, Gold Coast and St Kilda missing out by a game or two games,” the former Collingwood coach told SEN’s Whateley.

“For whatever that’s worth, that’s where I got to.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/07/19/buckleys-predicted-top-8-for-season-2022/

[one-eyed]

SEN host Gerard Whateley has pinpointed 12 “swing games” that will shape the top eight come the end of the home and away season.

“Do Richmond set things right against Fremantle? ..."

Round 19

Richmond vs Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Western Bulldogs vs Melbourne at Marvel Stadium

Round 20

Fremantle vs Melbourne at Optus Stadium

Geelong vs Western Bulldogs at GMHBA Stadium

Richmond vs Brisbane at the MCG

Round 21

Melbourne vs Collingwood at the MCG

Western Bulldogs vs Fremantle at Marvel Stadium

Brisbane vs Carlton at the Gabba

Round 22

Melbourne vs Carlton at the MCG

Sydney vs Collingwood at the SCG

Round 23

Brisbane vs Melbourne at the Gabba

Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/07/19/the-12-swing-games-that-will-shape-the-top-eight/

[one-eyed]

Power Ranking after Round 18

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 19th, 2022

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Fremantle
5. Sydney

6. RICHMOND (9-8, 115%)

Last week’s ranking: 5

Yes, we still believe in the Tigers. After all it doesn’t take someone with the footy intellect of Daisy Pearce to know they were the better side against North Melbourne... with the notable exception of their goalkicking. Champion Data’s Expected Score said Richmond should’ve won by five goals and if the game was purely about getting it inside 50, they would’ve won by infinity. Instead the Kangaroos took their chances and the Tigers copped a brutal loss. They should still play finals - the Suns’ loss to Essendon was massive for them - but without Dustin Martin and Tom Lynch, it’ll be much harder to knock off Fremantle this Friday night. And if they don’t beat the Dockers, they have to beat at least one of Brisbane or Port Adelaide (away). Again, we think they’re good enough, and if they sneak into eighth whoever finishes fifth won’t be happy.


7. Carlton
8. Collingwood
9. W.Bulldogs
10. Port Adelaide
11. Gold Coast
12. St Kilda

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-power-rankings-after-round-18-analysis-highlights-ladder-top-eight-every-club-ranked-predictions/news-story/5c845590ab0e548e37e57427ab1b7f93

[one-eyed]

LUKE HODGE'S TOP EIGHT PREDICTION AFTER 18 ROUNDS

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Brisbane
4. Sydney
5. Fremantle
6. Carlton
7. Collingwood

8. Richmond

“For the final spot, and a game and percentage clear, I’ve got Richmond. Which will make all the teams above them, whether you think they’re good enough to make a Grand Final or not, that’s going to make every team above them nervous.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/07/20/luke-hodges-top-eight-prediction-after-18-rounds/

[one-eyed]

Tigers’ burning question: Can they beat a contender?

Of Richmond’s nine wins in season 2022, seven of those have come against teams outside the top eight: The Giants, Western Bulldogs, West Coast (twice), Hawthorn, Essendon and Port Adelaide. But they’ve fallen in matches to Carlton, Melbourne, Sydney and Geelong. The Tigers are still considered a finals threat, despite only clinging to eighth spot on the ladder by percentage, sitting 9-8 along with the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda and two wins behind seventh-placed Carlton. Beat Fremantle and it’d be a big step in the right direction after last week’s shock loss to the Roos. Make finals and they loom as a “shocking match up” come September, according to David King, who told First Crack: “There’s going to be an unlucky team in fifth who is going to run into Richmond.”

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-tipping-round-19-2022-the-blowtorch-fox-footy-commentators-afl-news-every-club-round-19-burning-question/news-story/00c2ea7bcc8eb86d1a980f10be198f4d

[one-eyed]

Games remaining vs sides currently inside 8

4 - MELB
3 - BRIS CARL COLL GWS PORT STK WBD
2 - ADEL ESS FREM GCS RICH WCE
1 - HAW NTH SYD
0 - GEEL

https://twitter.com/sirswampthing/status/1550107128345817089

[cub]

Last couple weeks dissapointing
BUT
We know we can do it, always say you need that touch of luck come finals and if we make it - Well we can beat anyone and there will be a lot of nervous teams

I'd take an elim against the Skunks in a heartbeat and if we could play the Kitty Cats 'Would make my day' they would crumble
Oh it aint over yet people NOT YET!!!!

[georgies31]

One game at a time for me get the 4 points I just hope penny has dropped or it's a wasted season.

[Gracie]

Buckley still thinks we will make the finals and finish 7th.

Nathan Buckley’s top eight below:

1. Geelong
2. Melbourne
3. Sydney
4. Brisbane
5. Collingwood
6. Fremantle
7. Richmond
8. Carlton

“I’ve got the Dogs, Gold Coast and St Kilda missing out by a game or two games,” the former Collingwood coach told SEN’s Whateley.

“For whatever that’s worth, that’s where I got to.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/07/19/buckleys-predicted-top-8-for-season-2022/

If that was the final ladder we would go to Perth to play Freo - win that it is to Sydney (assuming Melbourne beats Swans) to play Sydney - win that it is PF v Geelong

Tough run

[mightytiges]

Given the Dogs won tonight and they've only got one game left you would think they are likely to drop (Cats next week at Kardinia Park), we've really only got a chance of still making finals by winning all 4 remaining games. Not likely the way we are playing .

8. Dogs:    Geel (KP)     Freo (Marvel)   GWS (Marvel)   Haw (Launceston) ..... expect them to beat Freo at Marvel.

9. St K:   Haw (Marvel)    Geel (KP)      Bris (Marvel)     Syd (Marvel)  ...... assuming they win tomorrow.

10. Rich:   Bris (MCG)    Port (Adel)      Haw (MCG)       Ess (MCG)

[WilliamPowell]

Reckon it's  out if us and the Doggies for 8th

But the last 3 weeks have cost us. How much? Well we will know in a fortnight

[FooffooValve]

Carlton aren't home and hosed yet. They will beat GWS but then have Adelaide away, Brisbane away, Melbourne and Collingwood. Could conceivably lose all 4, or at least 3. Having said that, I don't think we make it on current form.

[camboon]

If you to a side like North you don’t deserve to make the eight, if they turn it around from here it will be a minor miracle