Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[one-eyed]

The other one would be the Swans purely based on how others have fared the following year after being thrashed in the GF (GWS, Adelaide).

https://www.instagram.com/p/CoTL60SOLAf/

[Damo]

What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit

[Tiger Khosh]

What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit

Which ones are they missing? I haven’t checked it but I think they just included the ones where the loser got smashed By 40+ points.

[Andyy]

What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit

Which ones are they missing? I haven’t checked it but I think they just included the ones where the loser got smashed By 40+ points.

Well we beat Cats by 31 with 16min quarters so if you extrapolate that by 25% it's about 38+ points, bit of a mild spanking if you ask me.

About 101-63 scoreboard if you add it up.

[one-eyed]

What a stupid offering by whoever created it
Obviously all the years they didn’t include didn’t suit

The last exception was Geelong making back-to-back Grand Finals in 1994-95 (flogged by 80 points in 94 GF then backed up for another hiding).

From 1996 onwards, it's correct.

https://afltables.com/afl/teams/allteams/gfgames.html

[one-eyed]

The Dockers in the prelim... Yep, it's realistic.

I wouldn't be shocked if Geelong, the Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide, Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane, Collingwood and Carlton joined them.

Nine doesn't go into four.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/02/07/is-it-easier-to-predict-lotto-numbers-than-this-years-premiership-winner/


No surprise which club Kane Cornes left out .

[one-eyed]

Moneyball theory reveals which AFL teams will rise and fall in the 2023 season

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
February 7th, 2023 4:27 pm

For a seventh consecutive year, it’s time to look back in order to look forward.

This is Foxfooty.com.au’s annual Pythagorean wins prediction piece, which reveals the teams who over- and underperformed in the previous season to predict who’ll bounce back or fall flat in the coming year.

The name makes it sound complicated, but all you need to know is it’s accurate. Of the 15 strongest predictions made by this formula since 2010, 13 were correct.

The core behind Pythagorean wins is figuring out who was lucky and who was unlucky in the previous seasons - determining how many games a team “should” have won - and predicting who’ll rise and fall this season as their luck reverts to the mean.

This is what last year's AFL ladder SHOULD have looked like, according to a formula with a very strong track record.

Positive differential (ie +0.29) = lucky;
negative differential = unlucky;
differential over ~1.5 is statistically significant.





And this is what it means for 2023 >

THE TWO VERY STRONG PREDICTIONS

Collingwood: Decline
Port Adelaide: Improve

THE THREE LESS-STRONG PREDICTIONS

All three of these teams are on the borderline of statistical significance; these predictions are much stronger when the difference between a team’s actual and Pythagorean wins is over two.

But they are still intriguing sides and worth discussing.

Richmond

2022 record: 13-8-1, 121.6%

2022 Pythagorean wins: 14.98 (gap of 1.48)

2023 prediction: Improve

It’s kind of remarkable that Richmond didn’t win a final last year, given how good they looked over most of the season.

After a 2-4 start with odd losses to St Kilda and Adelaide, they lost just four more games, all of them close - by 6 points against Sydney, 3 points against Geelong, 2 points against Gold Coast and 4 points against North Melbourne.

The latter two, plus the draw against Fremantle, came in a three-week patch which ruined their chances of a home final - and in the end they lost yet another close game in September, by two points to Brisbane at the Gabba.

So we actually prefer the Tigers’ Pythagorean case over the Suns’ and Giants’. They went 2-5 with a draw in close games if you include the elimination final, and more to the point, they were very clearly a much better team after Round 6. They pass the eye test as a team that underperformed its final ladder position and win-loss record.

Oh, and then they added Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto to try and fix a midfield that has long been their weakness (if they had one). We’d argue the defence is slightly shaky, which could cost them a few games, but expect most experts to be tipping a Richmond rise in 2023. (We’ll be one of them.)


Gold Coast: Improve
GWS Giants: Improve

Full article: https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2023-season-preview-pythagorean-wins-analysis-luckiest-and-unluckiest-teams-in-2022-predicted-ladder-risers-and-fallers-stats/news-story/bea0e7710de188974c040c4ac4fda69d

[one-eyed]

That time of year: Sportsbet have the AFL season wins totals up.

A bit to ponder...


https://twitter.com/rickm18/status/1623469516390010880

[one-eyed]

AFL 2023: The Sporting News' 10 bold predictions for upcoming season

Aidan Cellini
SportingNews.com
9 February 2023

Richmond roars back on top

Starting with a premiership winner, Richmond are the pick of the crop for 2023.

Despite losing by two-points in an elimination final to Brisbane last year, the Tigers were tipped to do serious damage in the finals last year.

During 2022, they missed 2017 Brownlow Medallist Dustin Martin for the bulk of the year and were downed by injuries to Dion Prestia, Dylan Grimes and Tom Lynch throughout.

However, what gives them the edge heading into 2023 is they've added experienced GWS midfield duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper to the mix.

This allows players like Shai Bolton and Martin to play more aggressively forward of centre.

Their forward line now presents even more of a threat and with Lynch firing on all cylinders (averaged 3.32 goals in 2022) they'll be hard to stop.

Coach Damien Hardwick has developed a system that has proven to work for some time, winning three flags in four years across 2017-2020.

The core of those premiership players are still there and have been topped up by some stars across the journey to put them in the sweet spot for their 14th trophy.

Also at this time, the Tigers have a minimal injury list, with youngster Josh Gibcus the only real concern heading into round one.

Richmond are $8 on TAB to take home the premiership.

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/afl-2023-news-season-predictions/jaororqsaqvq4ijxytnhygna

[one-eyed]

Will the Tigers' aggressive 2022 recruiting period pay off?

After falling agonisingly short in the elimination final to Brisbane, Richmond looked at ways to improve their list and get back on top, a place so familiar over the past five years.

The Tigers attacked the trade period with aggression, landing GWS duo Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper in monster seven-year deals.

Taranto, 25, and Hopper, 26, are primed to take a club forward into the future, with both establishing themselves as elite midfielders of the competition.

Richmond recognised that their downfall in 2022 was their midfield game, which wasn't helped by the untimely absences of Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia and Trent Cotchin throughout the year.

They were the second worst clearance team in front of only Hawthorn which resulted in a low contested possession count.

Taranto and Hopper are clearance beasts with defensive mindsets which will give freedom to Shai Bolton and Martin to be more aggressive through the middle third of the ground.

Now on paper, Damien Hardwick boasts an extremely deep list, littered with elite talent on all lines.

In 2022, the Tigers were the highest scoring team in the competition and ranked ninth for points against.

Richmond have built a successful brand on pressure and fast ball movement, but improving their clearance game gives them another avenue to score.

Not only that, the club has committed to the Giant pair long-term, meaning they're preparing for life after Cotchin, Martin and Prestia in the coming years.

Tigers fans should be very excited by the potential Taranto and Hopper have and the longevity at Punt Road.

https://www.msn.com/en-au/sport/other/afl-2023-every-club-s-most-burning-question-for-the-upcoming-season/ar-AA17rV5f?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=47bcc997f8944d01a37734f9b136fc46

[one-eyed]

“I can’t see them [Port] not finishing top four.” - Matt Rendell

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2023/02/15/lofty-expectations-set-for-port-adelaide-ahead-of-2023-season/

[one-eyed]

Richmond: Can They Win The Flag?

Michael Manley
The Sporting Base
February 17, 2023

Our AFL analyst has taken a look at Richmond and put together his case for and against the Tigers winning the flag in 2023.

THE CASE FOR

On paper, they look as strong as any team in the competition with their best 22. They have added Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper who strengthen their on ball line up which has been a weakness. This will also allow Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton to spend more time in the forward line. That pair will also take the pressure off the injury-prone Dion Prestia. Last year their backline was hampered by constant injuries to the likes of Dylan Grimes and Nick Vlaustin. They lost seven games by less than a goal last season so it won’t take much improvement for them to finish at the pointy end of the ladder. They also have key pillars in Tom Lynch and Jack Riewoldt up forward.

THE CASE AGAINST

It’s hard to restart an era and recruiting key players doesn’t always work as the Hawks have found out. The list is aging and do the likes of Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Dylan Grimes and even Dustin Martin have another kick in them? Last season they got smashed in contested possession and their backline also ranked poorly.

STRENGTHS

Heaps of great talented footballers headed by Dustin Martin and Shai Bolton and not necessarily in that order these days. Tom Lynch was the best forward in the competition last year and he still has Jack Riewoldt as a handy foil. Young forwards Noah Cumberland and Maurice Rioli junior showed a lot of promise at the end of last season. They also have two great wingmen in Kamdyn McIntosh and Marlion Pickett plus Toby Nankervis and Dion Prestia on the ball in addition to their new recruits Taranto and Hopper. The backline has capable performers in Grimes, Vlaustin, Rob Tarrant and Noah Balta supplemented by the run and carry of Daniel Rioli and Liam Baker.

WEAKNESSES

At times they can be too aggressive and undisciplined. Co-captain Toby Nankervis gave away numerous free kicks. Shai Bolton gave away too many 50s and also didn’t make the most of his opportunities in the forward line. If Nankervis got injured there’s a big query on the ruck depth. Tom Lynch is still the main man in the forward line without another high marking back-up. They also struggle to stop teams which get on runs. Also in close finishes last season they were poor with their last seven losses all less than a goal. Their defence didn’t really gel last season.

Odds (Supplied By TopSport)

PREMIERSHIP: $8
TOP FOUR: $2.20
TOP EIGHT: $1.22

PREDICTION:

Top 4

https://thesportingbase.com/latest_news/richmond-can-they-win-the-flag/

[1965]

I have been a RFC supporter since 1965 and a member ever since I could afford it. I cant remember a time when I was more excited about an upcoming season.

[one-eyed]

AFL 2023: Jason Akermanis' early predictions for your club

Aidan Cellini
Sporting News
21 February 2023

In an exclusive interview with The Sporting News, Jason Akermanis has offered his early predictions for next year shortly after a very busy trade period.

Whilst some clubs have been believed to have won the period, others have failed and improvement for 2023 doesn't look on the cards.

For instance, Geelong and Richmond have added highly talented players from rival teams.

Fremantle arguably landed the biggest fish in Luke Jackson to go with Jaeger O'Meara.

Collingwood added a quartet of stars to help balance their list.

Whereas St Kilda only added Zaine Cordy and were unable to attract any other stars, including Jordan De Goey who stayed with the Pies.

Akermanis believes that 2023 is even harder to predict than the season just gone with the Cats taking out the premiership.

"If you picked the winner after last season, where it looked like Melbourne wasn’t going to lose for 3/4 years, then you’d be a monkey’s uncle," Akermanis said.

"Arguably the most even competition in the AFL of all time."

.....

Richmond

"The great unknown. They can be a top four side when they play their best footy. I can't see them missing the finals, they're too good."

https://www.sportingnews.com/au/afl/news/afl-2023-jason-akermanis-early-predictions-your-club/aw6tnvaywasbbn7r8kyoxsq6

[the claw]

If we had Collingwoods list claw you would be a hell of a lot more critical then your comment above.

Probably but i watch us all the time, that mob only when we play em or finals.
Yep i could pick plenty of holes in their list if i wanted.

Bit like us in 17 it was more about the way we played rather than overflowing with top end talent thats how i view em.

In 17 we only really had top end stars in Riewoldt Cotchin, Martin, Prestia, and Rance but we had a lot of decent to good players to compliment them. Some who grew into very good players in the system we had.

Imo last year outside of us they were the only team likely to topple Geelong in the g/f and it was more about the way they played than the players they had.

Unlike us in 2017 i think they already have too many of their better players pushing  30 than 25.