Can Richmond challenge again in 2023?

[Jonesracing82]

i take 0 notice of barrett, he's the big fence jumper there is.

win tm & we are only half a game out. top 4 aside it's very even for those last 4 september spots.

[mat073]

Did the ladder predictor for the first time this season .

Must beat Hawks , Roos - non negotiable.

Must win two of remaining four . Saints and Dogs our best bet .

Think we can get in winning 12.5 games

[one-eyed]

The Run Home: After Round 18

Martin Smith
afl.com.au
16 July 2023

11. Richmond

34 points (eight wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.8 per cent

The Tigers are lurking just two points outside the finals spots and with Hawthorn to come in round 19, they could find themselves in the eight by the end of next week. They also have the Roos on the run home, but blockbuster games against Melbourne and Port Adelaide (away) will be true tests as September approaches. Games against the Bulldogs and Saints will have a major say in the make-up of the final eight.

The run home
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

https://www.afl.com.au/news/969186/the-run-home-crows-stumble-as-blues-giants-continue-to-surge

[Tiger Khosh]

Back even in the win/loss ledger for the first time since round 3 lol

[the claw]

Play like we did yesterday and even north melbourne will beat us.

The Run Home: After Round 18

Martin Smith
afl.com.au
16 July 2023

11. Richmond

34 points (eight wins, eight losses, one draw), 99.8 per cent

The Tigers are lurking just two points outside the finals spots and with Hawthorn to come in round 19, they could find themselves in the eight by the end of next week. They also have the Roos on the run home, but blockbuster games against Melbourne and Port Adelaide (away) will be true tests as September approaches. Games against the Bulldogs and Saints will have a major say in the make-up of the final eight.

The run home
R19: Hawthorn @ MCG
R20: Melbourne @ MCG
R21: Western Bulldogs @ Marvel Stadium
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium
R23: North Melbourne @ MCG
R24: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval

https://www.afl.com.au/news/969186/the-run-home-crows-stumble-as-blues-giants-continue-to-surge

In being as unbiased as possible id say two definate wins two losses and two very hard 50/50 games at Marvel against two teams also playing for top 8.

Its interesting to do the run home of all 10 teams fighting for a spot in the 8.

CO, BR, PA,  MEL, are going to likely finish top 4 and definately make the 8.

Geelong have a tough run home but are so hard to beat at home they should be okay.

The rest are all on a knifes edge.
Even the saints who people are writing off they play their next 5 at marvel where they are tough to beat.

[FooffooValve]

Ridiculous to think that if we'd kicked another point against Carlton and not brain-faded against the Bombers, we'd be sitting 5th.

[Francois Jackson]

yep.

i also wonder if 4 more wins gets the job done? Not many teams have needed over 12 wins to make the 8 of recent years.

saints play some very easy teams before they play us, so no doubt they will be up and about by the time they face off against us.

Id also back us against most teams at the g first week of the finals. All in all we have no one to blame but ourselves. That essendon loss was shocking.

[one-eyed]

Run Home: Every club’s last six games, predicting where your team will finish

Simeon Thomas-Wilson
HeraldSun
July 17, 2023

11. RICHMOND

Played: 17, Won: 8, Lost: 8, Drawn: 1, Points: 34, Percentage: 99.8

RUN HOME
R19: Hawthorn, MCG (W)
R20: Melbourne, MCG (L)
R21: Western Bulldogs, Marvel (L)
R22: St Kilda, Marvel (L)
R23: North Melbourne, MCG (W)
R24: Port Adelaide, AO (L)

Predicted finish: 12th (10-1-12)

As expected the Tigers got the job done against West Coast to keep themselves in the mix for finals. But they will need to beat at least two of Melbourne, the Western Bulldogs, St Kilda and Port Adelaide to be a chance of making the top eight. It is doable for the Tigers, but it doesn’t look all that likely right now.


FINAL PREDICTED LADDER

1. Collingwood (20-3)
2. Port Adelaide (19-4)
3. Brisbane (17-6)
4. Melbourne (17-6)
5. Geelong (13-1-9)
6. Western Bulldogs (13-10)
7. Essendon (13-10)
8. Carlton (12-1-10)
-----------------------------
9. St Kilda (12-11)
10. GWS (12-11)
11. Adelaide (11-12)
12. Richmond (10-1-12)
13. Fremantle (9-14)
14. Sydney (8-1-14)
15. Gold Coast (8-15)
16. Hawthorn (6-17)
17. North Melbourne (3-20)
18. West Coast (2-21)

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/run-home-every-clubs-last-six-games-predicting-where-your-team-will-finish/news-story/ab427974f207c025b1b91d0831298d3f

[FooffooValve]

Obviously we have to beat Hawthorn and Norf. If we can't beat them we don't deserve finals anyway. I think the other two we can win are Melbourne and the Saints. Melbourne haven't really impressed me in the last month, with a 7min burst on Friday night saving them from a bad defeat. And the Saints look to be on the slide. We will struggle to beat the Dogs at Marvel. The other wildcard is Port Adelaide - will they have a home final sewn up by round 24 and maybe rest a few for that game? Stranger things have happened.

[rogerd3]

Not a chance in hell.

[one-eyed]

AFL Run Home after Rd 18: Spectacular Saturday breaks finals race wide open, with shock tip for eighth

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
July 17th, 2023

11. RICHMOND (8-8-1, 99.8%)

Remaining games
Round 19: Hawthorn at the MCG
Round 20: Melbourne at the MCG
Round 21: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium
Round 22: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium
Round 23: North Melbourne at the MCG
Round 24: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval

Remaining fixture difficulty: Sixth-easiest

St Kilda, the Bulldogs and Essendon losing were all good results for the Tigers. And Adelaide losing was OK, though it kinda just means they have to pass GWS instead. Carlton beating Port Adelaide did not help the Tigers though, as even winning four of their last six games may no longer be enough. (It may come down to percentage vs the Blues.) Either way that still has to be their aim, so while you’d assume Richmond knocks off Hawthorn and North Melbourne, and they’ll be solid favourites against this ailing version of St Kilda, they still have to get the job done against one of Melbourne or the Bulldogs. Even if they do win four of five, it may come down to the final round, where they’d need to either upset the Power away or hope results don’t fall a certain way. As we mentioned in the Carlton section above, the incredible tightness of the projected win totals between the Blues, Saints, Tigers and Giants show just how volatile this race is. We could easily be projecting Richmond into the eight this time next week. But either way, it’s going down to the wire.

Fox Footy’s projection: 11.7 wins, finishing 10th

----------------------

PROJECTED FINAL LADDER

1. Collingwood (18.55 projected wins)
2. Port Adelaide (17.45)
3. Brisbane Lions (15.6)
4. Melbourne (14.9)
5. Geelong (12.8 )
6. Western Bulldogs (12.75)
7. Essendon (12.45)
8. Carlton (11.9)
------------------------------------
9. St Kilda (11.85)
10. Richmond (11.7)
11. GWS Giants (11.65)
12. Adelaide Crows (11.2)
13. Gold Coast Suns (10.85)
14. Sydney Swans (10.3)
15. Fremantle (10.2)
16. Hawthorn (7.1)
17. North Melbourne (4.05)
18. West Coast Eagles (1.6)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-the-run-home-after-round-18-predicted-ladder-top-eight-finals-ladder-predictor-analysis-fixture/news-story/ab2b00697060dc85de71c7c1fe34319b

[Tiger_In_Sicily]

Not a chance in hell.

Especially how we played this weekend. Even norf can beat us

[mat073]

Our forward line is our Achilles heel and killing our chances …Unless we can find someone “red hot “ late - like Townsend in 2017 we will be an also ran .

[the claw]

Ridiculous to think that if we'd kicked another point against Carlton and not brain-faded against the Bombers, we'd be sitting 5th.

Its not exclusive to us though i reckon all teams would be talking about what ifs in some games.

[one-eyed]

Power Rankings after Round 18

Max Laughton
Foxsports
18 July 2023

10. RICHMOND (8-8-1, 99.8%)

Last week’s ranking: 9

The Tigers primarily dropped a spot this week because of other teams rising, but they weren’t exactly as dominant over West Coast as most teams have been, either. That may matter with their percentage now almost certain to remain worse than Carlton, Geelong and Sydney, which could genuinely impact finals tiebreakers. (This is where the thumping loss to Brisbane hurts even more.) They’ve still got the opportunities to make the eight but the teams around them keep winning too, with the Giants and Blues both on streaks stretching over a month long. Though for what it’s worth if they keep winning relatively unimpressively, there’s no reason to believe the Tigers could do much damage even if they do squeak into September.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2023-power-rankings-after-round-18-highlights-every-club-ranked-analysis-ladder-predictions-contenders/news-story/24ea4d60fe3ab550acef677dd22dcb78