AFL phantom draft: Shock calls, big sliders as top 27 picks predicted in MEGA late mailBen Waterworth
Fox Sports
November 19th, 2024 8:39 pmFoxfooty.com.au predicts how the first round of the draft will pan out, including four rival-club bids, plus the inside word on which prospects your club could take on both nights of the two-day event.
PICK 1: RICHMOND – SAM LALORPosition: Medium forward/midfielder
Size: 187cm
Clubs: GWV Rebels/Bacchus Marsh
AFL player comparison: Dustin Martin
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 5
A player who’s worn the No. 4 guernsey, idolises Dustin Martin and plays in comparable fashion — a Lalor-Tigers partnership seems like a fairytale. A clean, powerful and physical forward-midfielder with a penetrating kick and strong one-on-one ability, Lalor consistently impacts games forward of centre. He was hampered by foot, quad and hip issues at the start of this season, but returned to the field in the middle of the year with a bang, booting a lazy 7.3 for Geelong Grammar in a school game.
He then kicked 3.1 from 16 touches and three clearances in an eye-catching display for Vic Country against the Allies, before clunking two telling marks against Vic Metro in the carnival final. He also averaged 23.0 disposals, 6.2 clearances, 5.8 marks and 6.0 inside 50s from four Coates Talent League games for the Rebels. His strong showing in the back-end of the year and enormous potential at AFL level now have him at the pointy end of the 2024 pool.
In the mix/trade watch: The popular alternative to Lalor is Finn O’Sullivan, who the Tigers have also been strongly considering. O’Sullivan played a game for the Tigers’ VFL team this year, while Jagga Smith played three games for the same side. Smith had also been in the Pick 1 mix, but is considered the outside chance of the trio.
PICK 2: NORTH MELBOURNE – FINN O’SULLIVAN
PICK 3: CARLTON – JAGGA SMITH
PICK 4: ADELAIDE – HARVEY LANGFORD
PICK 5: BRISBANE LIONS – LEVI ASHCROFT (DEMONS’ FATHER-SON BID MATCHED)
PICK 6: MELBOURNE – ALIX TAURUPICK 7: RICHMOND – JOSH SMILLIEPosition: Midfielder
Size: 194cm
Clubs: Eastern Ranges/Park Orchards
AFL player comparison: Tom Green
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 8
In a midfield-heavy class, Smillie has the height and size advantage over other top 2024 on-ball prospects. He showed glimpses of his powerful best across a solid four-game campaign for Vic Metro, averaging 18.8 disposals, 10.2 contested possessions, 6.8 score involvements 5.8 clearances, although he missed out on All-Australian selection. But those who watched Smillie’s three-goal, 34-disposals Coates Talent League performance against the Lions academy earlier this year said they witnessed a player worthy of a top-end pick, for not only did he show off his power and stoppage craft, but he also showcased explosive running and precise kicking when in space. Due to that excellent ball use, some clubs believe Smillie could start his AFL career across half-back, which is a position he starred in at Under 16s level.
In the mix/trade watch: Despite the Tigers’ long-held interest in Smillie, this looms as a big pivot point of the draft. Smillie for months has been heavily linked to Richmond – specifically at this selection – but there’s a chance he could still be on the board come the Tigers’ next two picks. There’s risk in overlooking SA’s Sid Draper – who some consider a top-five selection – while WA’s Bo Allan – who’s been linked to Richmond’s selections at 10 and 11 but is the emerging wildcard of the top 10 – looks increasingly likely to be gone too, with Melbourne eyeing him. There’s also a chance Xavier Lindsay comes into play, too.
PICK 8: ST KILDA – SID DRAPER
PICK 9: GOLD COAST – LEO LOMBARD (SAINTS’ ACADEMY BID MATCHED)
PICK 10: ST KILDA – TOBIE TRAVAGLIA
PICK 11: MELBOURNE – BO ALLANPICK 12: RICHMOND – XAVIER LINDSAYPosition: Midfielder/medium defender
Size: 183cm
Clubs: Gippsland Power/Leongatha
AFL player comparison: Scott Pendlebury
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 15
Perhaps the classiest of the class, as it’s his decision-making, pinpoint ball use, agility and speed that really catch the eye. Recruiters coming into the year liked Lindsay as a half-back, but he showed throughout the year he has improved his inside on-ball game and is reliable across any third of the ground. His ‘Pick Me’ game came for Vic Country against Vic Metro, finishing with 30 disposals, 11 marks, 10 contested possessions, eight score involvements, eight tackles, six inside 50s, six intercepts, four clearances and 585m gained. Overall, he averaged 22.7 disposals, 4.3 clearances and 5.0 tackles in three matches for Country, having missed the Allies match due to injury. Lindsay then became the first Gippsland Power player in a decade to claim the Morrish Medal as the best and fairest player in the Coates Talent League, averaging 23.4 disposals, 5.4 clearances and 5.2 inside 50s across his 12 appearances this season.
In the mix/trade watch: If the Tigers take a key-position player with their other pick, there’s a few midfield/hybrid possibilities for them here. If one of Bo Allan or Tobie Travaglia is still on the board, the Tigers would likely pounce. Another option would be classy, clean midfielder Murphy Reid, who has interest from Richmond with its third and fourth picks and is unlikely to be available at its fifth selection. It’s also the first selection where gun Murray Bushrangers half-forward Joe Berry first enters the draft mix, although it’s more likely the Tigers will be targeting him with their back-end first-rounders.
PICK 13: ESSENDON – ISAAC KAKO (TIGERS’ NGA BID MATCHED)PICK 14: RICHMOND – HARRY ARMSTRONGPosition: Tall forward
Size: 193cm
Clubs: Sandringham Dragons/Ormond
AFL player comparison: Jeremy Cameron
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 10
Armstrong has come with a rush in 2024, with AFL clubs quickly falling in love with the gun goalkicker. Despite playing just three games for Vic Metro, Armstrong kicked an equal champs-high nine goals — including five in the final against Vic Country — as he showed off his accurate and penetrating left-foot kick, competitiveness in the air and mobility around the ground. Armstrong then took that form back to the Dragons, kicking five four-goal hauls in his final eight matches to finish with 27.10 for the Coates Talent League season. He’s also been dominant at APS level under Matthew Lloyd for Haileybury College across the past two years, including kicking 10 of his side’s 22 goals in a game earlier in the year.
In the mix/trade watch: The expectation for weeks has been that the Tigers will select a key-position prospect with one of their picks outside the top 10. If Armstrong is off the board, there’s a strong chance the Tigers opt for Murray Bushrangers forward-ruck Jack Whitlock – there’s speculation the Tigers could just pick Whitlock over Armstrong if both were available – while Jobe Shanahan and Jonty Faull would be in the mix too. Or the Tigers could go two midfield/hybrids at Picks 10 and 11, with Joe Berry and Murphy Reid good options.
PICK 15: WEST COAST EAGLES – TAJ HOTTON
PICK 16: PORT ADELAIDE – JOBE SHANAHAN
PICK 17: FREMANTLE – JOE BERRY
PICK 18: GWS GIANTS – JONTY FAULL
PICK 19: GWS GIANTS – JASPER ALGER
PICK 20: WESTERN BULLDOGS – MURPHY REIDPICK 21: RICHMOND – JESSE DATTOLIPosition: Medium forward/wing
Size: 178cm
Clubs: Northern Knights/Heidelberg
AFL player comparison: Josh Rachele
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 24
There’s been ample intrigue around this Northern Knights product all year, for he’s uber-talented and has match-winner traits written all over him. Dattoli works hard between the arcs and is creative with his ball use. After an injury-interrupted 2023 campaign, Dattoli impressed both at Coates Talent League level and against the best in the national carnival. He kicked 12 goals and averaged 23.1 disposals, 6.1 score involvements and 3.9 clearances for the Knights, while he also had a promising carnival campaign for Vic Metro, booting three goals and averaging 15.2 disposals, 7.2 marks and 6.0 score involvements.
In the mix/trade watch: The Tigers have been linked to an array of forward-half players in this part of the draft. Cooper Hynes and Jasper Alger would be considered if available, but they’d both likely be superseded by Taj Hotton should he remarkably slip through to the back-end of the first round. This is probably where gun Sandringham Dragons medium defender Harry Oliver enters calculations for the first time as well.
PICK 22: BRISBANE – SAM MARSHALL (SWANS’ ACADEMY BID MATCHED)
PICK 23: SYDNEY – JACK WHITLOCK
PICK 24: RICHMOND – HARRY OLIVERPosition: Medium defender
Size: 181cm
Clubs: Sandringham Dragons/St Bedes-Mentone
AFL player comparison: Luke Hodge
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 28
A composed defender renowned for his competitiveness, decision-making and pinpoint distribution by foot, Oliver has lots of fans at this point in the draft. He made the All-Australian team after averaging 16.2 disposals and going at 82 per cent efficiency by foot for Vic Metro. He can break the lines with his run, carry and kicking, but clubs also love how hard he attacks the ball. If the Tigers want Oliver, they might have to pick him here as the Dragon has been strongly linked to both the Giants and Swans late in the first round.
In the mix/trade watch: Considering there’s just one selection between the Tigers’ Picks 18 and 20 (pre-bids), the draft prospects in their mix – especially those front-half players – don’t change too much here. The Tigers have done their work on Cooper Hynes, so he’d be a real chance here, along with Ollie Hannaford.
PICK 25: GWS GIANTS – OLLIE HANNAFORD
PICK 26: SYDNEY – COOPER HYNESPICK 27: RICHMOND – MATT WHITLOCKPosition: Tall utility
Size: 198cm
Clubs: Murray Bushrangers/Shepparton
AFL player comparison: Sam Taylor
Foxfooty.com.au Draft Power Rankings: 26
While twin brother Jack is slightly taller and, for many, slightly higher rated overall, don’t sleep on the younger — and just as versatile — Whitlock. When his older sibling (by two minutes) was sidelined earlier in the year due to a finger injury, Whitlock was swung from defence into the forward line and had a day out against the Giants Academy team, booting 5.3 from 14 disposals and seven marks. Consistently presenting up at the ball and competing well in the air, Whitlock ended up kicking 27.20 for the Bushrangers playing mainly as a forward, but was named at full-back in the Coates Talent League team of the year. And he was just as impressive in defence for Vic Country, taking on some of the best key forwards in the draft pool. While Whitlock is still lightly built and developing his frame, he’s very athletic — his running vertical jump of 90cm at the draft combine ranked sixth overall — and has shown greater ball-winning ability this year.
In the mix/trade watch: There’s a chance both Cooper Hynes and Harry Oliver are still on the board. But if the Tigers want a tall and Whitlock has already been taken, intercepting defender Luke Trainor – who’s been linked to the Tigers – could be an option. Some also believe the Tigers could use the final pick of the first round to select Sturt’s Alex Dodson, who’s considered the best ruck in this year’s pool.
MORE DRAFT INTEL …Whether Richmond uses all of its eight top-24 selections remains uncertain, but the club is widely expected to listen to offers for Pick 24 – the valuable opening selection of the second round, which kicks off night two.
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Key defender Luke Trainor, who’s slid down draft boards in recent months, has late first-round interest from Sydney and Richmond, but the Bulldogs will ponder picking him should he still be on the board come the second night. Geelong is another who could trade up the order for Trainor.
But the Cats have also been linked to Sturt’s Alex Dodson, who’s considered the best ruck in the draft class. Richmond could select Dodson with a late first-round pick. But if he slips through, St Kilda has shown interest, while rivals believe Geelong (Picks 45 and 57) is considering a trade up the order to select the big man.
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Exciting 191cm mature-age forward Sam Davidson – the winner of the 2024 Fothergill-Round-Mitchell Medal, which is awarded to the most promising VFL player aged 24 or under – has interest from the Giants.
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