Federal Election

[the_boy_jake]

The Libs hit the front in the total two-party preferred vote this morning so Abbott comes out and claims he's no longer the opposition. The vote then swings back with the ALP now 3000 votes in front and Abbott has gone quiet  .

At Tues, 3.30pm

Australian Labor Party      5,414,648    50.01%
Liberal/National Coalition   5,411,529    49.99%

Amazing how there's only 3000 difference from a voting population of 14 million (81.5% ttp counted). Reminds
 me of the old Goodies episode where Tim and Bill tied as PM and they had to play "It's a Knockout" style game against the other leaders of the world with one leg tied to the other three-legged style. Maybe Julia and Tony need to do the same for the next 3 years  .

Why do the AEC exclude a whole lot of seats from the two-party-preferred vote? (8 seats at last count).

Bob Brown says that this argument about the TPP vote is ridiculous as when these excluded seats are included again Labor will surely be in front.

[mightytiges]

Why do the AEC exclude a whole lot of seats from the two-party-preferred vote? (8 seats at last count).

Bob Brown says that this argument about the TPP vote is ridiculous as when these excluded seats are included again Labor will surely be in front.

I didn't realise that either until last night when Antony Green mentioned it on ABC. It seems the job of the AEC is to try and get a result on Election Night foremostly and worry about completeness later on as the usual a +/-0.3% error on the counting of votes doesn't affect the final result and seat tally. However this time given both parties are 50/50 so a +/-0.3% does matter and as you say Jake the current TPP vote on the AEC site is actually meaningless until all the votes and preferences are counted. Those seats missing apparently favour Labor so Abbott is talking crap as usual.

In any case the TPP vote is irrelevant as it is most seats in the House of Reps that matter and that's up to which side the independents favour. Today the Greens formally backed Labor so effectively now it's 73 seats all (the Green backing will also give the ALP greater backing in the Senate for passing legislation). Now it's all down to Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie who Governs.

The stronger than expected economic data (GDP boost) was some bonus news for the ALP too albeit too late for the Election.

[the_boy_jake]

Why do the AEC exclude a whole lot of seats from the two-party-preferred vote? (8 seats at last count).

Bob Brown says that this argument about the TPP vote is ridiculous as when these excluded seats are included again Labor will surely be in front.

I didn't realise that either until last night when Antony Green mentioned it on ABC. It seems the job of the AEC is to try and get a result on Election Night foremostly and worry about completeness later on as the usual a +/-0.3% error on the counting of votes doesn't affect the final result and seat tally. However this time given both parties are 50/50 so a +/-0.3% does matter and as you say Jake the current TPP vote on the AEC site is actually meaningless until all the votes and preferences are counted. Those seats missing apparently favour Labor so Abbott is talking crap as usual.

In any case the TPP vote is irrelevant as it is most seats in the House of Reps that matter and that's up to which side the independents favour. Today the Greens formally backed Labor so effectively now it's 73 seats all (the Green backing will also give the ALP greater backing in the Senate for passing legislation). Now it's all down to Katter, Windsor, Oakeshott and Wilkie who Governs.

The stronger than expected economic data (GDP boost) was some bonus news for the ALP too albeit too late for the Election.

I'm convinced that Abbott really doesn't want to govern with a Green controlled senate, and merely wants this process to drag out, for Gillard to seem more and more the doormat of a few independents, and then to havee an election in 12 months where he might havee a chance of beating a battered government.

[mightytiges]

I'm convinced that Abbott really doesn't want to govern with a Green controlled senate, and merely wants this process to drag out, for Gillard to seem more and more the doormat of a few independents, and then to havee an election in 12 months where he might havee a chance of beating a battered government.

It's true it could all fall apart in months even if there is an agreement but they said the same thing when the independents backed Bracks after the close 1999 Victorian Election and it not only survived the 4 year term but Labor as the Government won in a landslide (with the help of a opposition in disarray). They're still in Government 11 years later. Incumbancy gives you power in Australia as the public most times vote Governments out rather than oppositions in.

[WilliamPowell]

Age reporting there's a $7 billion hole in the Coalition's Costing, HUN saying it's $10 bil

Funny stuff indeed 

And Jake I tend to agree about Tony not actually wanting to form government 

[the_boy_jake]

Age reporting there's a $7 billion hole in the Coalition's Costing, HUN saying it's $10 bil

Joe Hockey's lunch expenses?

[mightytiges]

Joe Hockey's lunch expenses?

Age reporting there's a $7 billion hole in the Coalition's Costing, HUN saying it's $10 bil

They Libs must have got Arthur Andersen to do their costings  . Not to worry as Tony finds economics boring. No wonder the Libs didn't want to put their costings into Treasury. Holding another election sounds pretty good now.

[one-eyed]

Independent MP Andrew Wilkie has announced he will back a Labor minority government.

His decision means Labor has 74 definite seats, two short of the majority needed to secure power.

The Coalition is at 73 seats if West Australian Nationals MP Tony Crook is included.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/09/02/3000874.htm

[mightytiges]

BOB Katter has put a sweeping policy manifesto to Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott, calling for devaluation of the Australian dollar, no tax on biofuels, tough quarantine rules to curb food imports and laws to break up Coles and Woolworths.

http://www.theage.com.au/federal-election/katter-puts-priorities-on-the-table-20100902-14ro4.html


Good luck Bob getting support from the major parties on allowing Government to devalue the dollar artificially  . There was an argument before the GFC that 70 US cents is a reasonable level for the Aussie dollar as it makes our primary/farming goods competitive on an international level but it should only reach that price by market forces. At the moment with our interest rates approaching a "normal" level while the rest of the developed world is in emergency low rate mode it keeps our dollar high.

The Libs need al 3 ex-Nat independents which includes Bob to form Government whereas Labor only needs two of the them and they don't need Katter's support if Windsor and Oakeshott .

[mightytiges]

The 3 country independents to make their final decision on which side to support over the weekend according to the news.

[tiger101]

hopefully the election finishes up tomorrow. when the indie's finally announce who there lining with.

[WilliamPowell]

hopefully the election finishes up tomorrow. when the indie's finally announce who there lining with.

We can only hope but at the same time we could leave things as they are .....

It's been relatively peaceful for the last 17 days 

[Francois Jackson]

I think Labour will take Charlie home. Worst result would be back to the polls especially during a finals campaign having to listen to their crap, unless its a Pies flag then id rather listen to Abbott and Gillard go at it.

I cant want to see what crap that Bishop comes up with if they lose.

Is it just me or is that lady the most annoying idiot in politics.

[one-eyed]

The 3 country independents will announce their final decision at 3pm

[mightytiges]

Katter supporting the Coalition (but he would've gone with Labor if Rudd was still PM  ??? ). So it's now 74-all.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/special-reports/nationals-mp-tony-crooks-support-for-the-coalition-could-influence-who-forms-government/story-fn5ko0pw-1225915005948


Up to Oakeshott and Windsor to be kingmakers. If they split their decision then it's back to the polls.