Draft day is a giant gamble
15 November 2007 Herald Sun
Mark Robinson
AFL talent manager Kevin Sheehan says clubs get the Top 10 selections about 75 per cent right.
By that, he means a tick over seven out of 10 players go on to have significant careers.
Significant yes. Great no.
When it comes to greatness, the misses outweigh the hits by a fair margin.
Indeed, national draft day is overhyped on hope. It is sold as the saviour of struggling football clubs when, in examination, it has been largely hit and hope and we'll see what happens in couple of years.
Millions of dollars are spent and thousands of hours worked as 16 club recruiters and their helpers search for the next James Hird, Simon Black and Ryan O'Keefe.
Despite greater expenditure and professionalism, in the form of talent identification, psyche and physical testing, draft day science remains more luck than good management.
They find good players, but do they nail the best with the prized selections? Seldom.
Indeed, it justifies the AFL argument that priority selections and high draft picks don't guarantee a superstar player.
The past three drafts have improved markedly in identifying the best talent, but gems wait outside the Top 10, either by chance, recruiter instinct, genes and the increasingly prosperous rookie draft.
Every draft day is the same.
AFL chief executive Andrew Demetriou gives 16 club recruiters two hours in the sun and expectation abounds.
Player 2561: Betterbe Good. Sandringham Dragons.
Player 4382: Fastblack Fella. Peel Thunder.
Player 1234: Big White Man Who Hasn't Played Before But We Hope We Can Develop Him. Outback Queensland.
In a Herald Sun exercise, we have recast the Top 10s over the past decade, and only one, St Kilda's Nick Riewoldt, keeps his No. 1 mantle.
And that was only just. A little, cheeky bloke named Daniel Kerr, who was taken at No. 18, and sits comfortably at No. 2 in a revised 2000 draft.
The new No. 1s are standout footballers: Brett Kirk (rookie), Simon Black (31), Lenny Hayes (11), Jonathan Brown (father-son), Chris Judd (3), Hamish McIntosh (9), Sam Fisher (55), Lance Franklin (5) and Scott Pendlebury (5).
Some players have dropped considerably under the rejig. Josh Fraser, Travis Johnstone, Des Headland and Michael Gardiner are out of their year's Top 10. That's not to say they can't play, it's simply that others have had greater impact.
Sheehan says recruiters are improving their delivery on draft day.
"There's no doubt they are getting better," he said.
"It's been 21 years since it started and from 1996 it's been less compromised than what what is was before."
Draft history makes you laugh and cry.
There's been some forgettable Top 10 draftees, through lack of talent, injury or for personal reasons.
It started in 1996 with Mark Kinnear (4), Daniel McAllister (5), John Rombotis (6), Bowen Lockwood (7), Leigh Brockman (
and Mark Harwood (9) -- a year hit by Port having access to the best South Australians prior to the draft including Warren Tredrea, Peter Burgoyne and Brendan Lade.
There was Murray Vance (No. 6, '98), Danny Roach (No. 7, '99), Caydn Beetham (No. 9, '99), Luke Molan (No. 9, '01) and Tim Walsh (No. 4, '02). And in 2000, Luke Livingston (No. 4), Dylan Smith (No. 6), Laurence Angwin (No. 7) all failed.
Then there's those that lived up to their Top 10 billing: Brendon Goddard, Daniel Wells, Brock McLean, Jordan Lewis, Luke Power, Josh Carr, Jude Bolton, Joel Corey and Alan Didak.
Others in the Top 10 that should have been higher include Chad Cornes, Nathan Brown, Jimmy Bartel, Hamish McIntosh, Lance Franklin and Scott Pendlebury.
The doosies are the lower draft picks who rocket into Top 10. There's Simon Black (31) and Adam Goodes (43), Byron Pickett (67), Ryan O'Keefe (56), Daniel Cross (56), Sam Mitchell (36), Nick Malceski (64) and Matthew Egan (62).
And then there's rookie draft.
Nathan Foley, Ben Rutten, Nick Maxwell, Danyle Pearce, Brett Kirk, Aaron Davey, Tagdh Kennelly, Dean Cox, Nathan Bassett, Mal Michael and James McDonald have all made the top shelf after being overlooked by every club on national draft day.
Sheehan, similar to every recruiter, highly values the rookie draft.
"Twenty every year is the average, 20 get upgraded and you'll see how many stars are in that 20," he said.
He cited Adelaide's Ben Rutten, who was captain of the SA under-18 team, suffered an knee injury, and was overlooked by everyone, as the ultimate example.
Sheehan says clubs now fully review their selections.
"They are trying to identify why. Is it something obvious they missed, was it bad luck with injury, was it the wrong personality type, what was it that had that guy wherever they chose him fail and why did that No.62 end up a star player. They are doing a lot more analysis."
NOTE: The above lists were compiled using something recruiters don't have access to -- hindsight.http://heraldsun.com.au/footy/common/story_page/0,8033,22760822%255E20322,00.html
