Outside of Geelong and Hawthorn you could throw a blanket over the next 10 or so sides. IMO only Melb and both WA sides have pretty much no chance of making the finals. I don't see the Bombers being there either. Of last year's finalists the Saints, Swans, Crows and Roos look the most likely candidates to drop out. A few injuries/loss of form to key players and a easy/hard draw can make a huge difference.