Who will be our challengers in 2021?

[one-eyed]

According to Champion Data when the top 5 have played the bottom 10 sides the result has been 30-2 with a percentage of 160%.

Richmond has a percentage of 150% against the bottom 10 sides this year.

David King said it will be hard for Richmond to make top 4 as the sides above us are winning the game they should. This will force us on the run home to have to be beat the top sides above us if we want to finish top 4.

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/pure-footy-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-lift-the-lid-on-afl-trends-stats/news-story/c20ba017647ba08189286a78a5f49839

[one-eyed]

Power Rankings: Round 11

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 2nd, 2021

1. MELBOURNE (10-1, 138.5%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 3 (up two)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-3, 133.5%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-2, 150.6%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 1 (down two)
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) ..................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 5

6. RICHMOND (6-5, 102.4%) ........................... Last week’s ranking: 8 (up two)

The online discussion around Richmond is reminding us of this tweet. We haven’t seen a single person saying the Tigers can’t win the flag, though some fans seem to think that’s happening frequently. What we are saying is everything needs to go right for 2021 to be a repeat of the last two years, when the Tigers came from the middle of the pack to win the flag, because they’re not the same situation. The top five on the ladder are 30-2 against the bottom ten with a percentage of 160-ish - because of percentage, Richmond is still virtually three games back of them, and the uber-valuable double chance. In 2019, the Tigers were ninth after Round 14, but they were only two games out of the top four; they’re coming from further back this time. It is going to be very hard to do it again... but if any team can, you’d think it’s them.

7. SYDNEY SWANS (7-4, 113%) ........................ Last week’s ranking: 9 (up two)
8. ESSENDON (5-6, 106.2%) ............................ Last week’s ranking: 12 (up four)
9. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-5, 106.4%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 7 (down two)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 6 (down four)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-11-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/c151e38d6698cdf78d0b29de775d6958

[one-eyed]

THE EIGHT IS LOCKED, AND THIS TIME WE MEAN IT

Max Laughton and David Zita
Foxsports
7 June 2021

Sunday’s two results have given us a stark reminder of the gap between the haves and have-nots this season.

Thanks to the Eagles and Bulldogs’ wins, there is now officially a two-game gap between the top eight and the bottom ten.

West Coast and Richmond now sit seventh and eighth respectively with a 7-5 record, while Essendon, Fremantle and St Kilda are all 5-7.

It may not hold for another week, admittedly. GWS is 5-6, and plays lowly North Melbourne in Round 13; the Giants should win while one of West Coast or Richmond loses, because they play each other.

But most observers have argued the current top eight of Melbourne, Bulldogs, Geelong, Brisbane, Port Adelaide, Sydney, West Coast and Richmond will be the final eight in some order. This only adds more fuel to the fire.

History shows the big difference between a 7-5 and a 5-7 record; since 1995, just 15 per cent of 5-7 teams have played finals, while 73 per cent of 7-5 teams have played finals.

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-round-12-analysis-talking-points-reaction-top-stories-max-king-criticism-nathan-buckley-worst-comment-news/news-story/287a122ac35d254de72e3b2dae2a9e18

[Francois Jackson]

[p]Power Rankings: Round 11[/b]

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 2nd, 2021

1. MELBOURNE (10-1, 138.5%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 3 (up two)
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-3, 133.5%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (9-2, 150.6%) ............ Last week’s ranking: 1 (down two)
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) ..................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 5

6. RICHMOND (6-5, 102.4%) ........................... Last week’s ranking: 8 (up two)

The online discussion around Richmond is reminding us of this tweet. We haven’t seen a single person saying the Tigers can’t win the flag, though some fans seem to think that’s happening frequently. What we are saying is everything needs to go right for 2021 to be a repeat of the last two years, when the Tigers came from the middle of the pack to win the flag, because they’re not the same situation. The top five on the ladder are 30-2 against the bottom ten with a percentage of 160-ish - because of percentage, Richmond is still virtually three games back of them, and the uber-valuable double chance. In 2019, the Tigers were ninth after Round 14, but they were only two games out of the top four; they’re coming from further back this time. It is going to be very hard to do it again... but if any team can, you’d think it’s them.

7. SYDNEY SWANS (7-4, 113%) ........................ Last week’s ranking: 9 (up two)
8. ESSENDON (5-6, 106.2%) ............................ Last week’s ranking: 12 (up four)
9. WEST COAST EAGLES (6-5, 106.4%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 7 (down two)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ......................... Last week’s ranking: 6 (down four)

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-11-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/c151e38d6698cdf78d0b29de775d6958

so what does this clown say about things now that we are 1 game and % from 4th spot, with port and cats to play each other.

we can only drop 1 more to clinch 4th spot, 2 losses need to come with a few smashings of close to 100 points.

we can do it

[Hard Roar Tiger]

I don’t think that they study the draw very closely. Over the next 4 weeks,
Power, Doggies and Cats have tough cases playing top 8 3 times each.
If we can get over the Eagles, we play Goldie,
Saints and Pies so we could potentially be in the top 4 by the end of June. With Lambert and Astbury due back this week and Nank and Meatie both due back after the bye, a full list along with a winning streak is on the cards.

[Tiger Khosh]

Yup big game this one. Win and we keep our 2 game separation from the bottom 10 and close the gap on top 4. Lose and we are right back in the sights of the teams below and make top 4 difficult. 16-6 would still get us top 4 so can afford to drop 1 more game but 15-7 will likely come down to % and the teams above us all have significantly better %s atm.

[one-eyed]

We're back in vogue again with the footy media :

-------------

David King and Gerard Whateley have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 12.

King's seedings

1. Melbourne

“There’s a big gap between first and second in the seedings now.

“They’re clearly one.”

2. Western Bulldogs

“I still think what they do is so unique. It’s either going to work big or fail big at the end of the year.

3. Brisbane

“They showed in the first half that they’ve still got it, but there’s work to do.”

4. Richmond

“I’m going back to an old rule.

“Richmond at four, leave them there until they either drop out of the season or they win the flag.

“They’re at four, they’re a lock. I won’t be leaving them for the year.”

Whateley's seedings

1. Melbourne

“We love what they’re doing.”

2. Richmond

“They’ve come roaring back.

“I thought they were going to get beaten. They can come back up at two.”

3. Western Bulldogs

“Nice win, nothing flashy about yesterday, just needed to win in the circumstances that presented.

“It was a difficult trip to Perth for all the reasons that were well recounted around COVID.”

4. Brisbane

“I’ve got the Brisbane Lions back at four.

“They had a quick look at two, they didn’t quite stack up, so they can sit back at four.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/07/king-and-whateley-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-12/

[one-eyed]

Power rankings: Round 12

Max Laughton
Fox Sports
June 8th, 2021

1. MELBOURNE (11-1, 137.6%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 1
2. BRISBANE LIONS (8-4, 127.3%) .................. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. WESTERN BULLDOGS (10-2, 150%) ............. Last week’s ranking: 3
4. GEELONG CATS (8-3, 130.6%) .................... Last week’s ranking: 4
5. PORT ADELAIDE (8-3, 123.3%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 5

6. RICHMOND (7-5, 106.2%) .......................... Last week’s ranking: 6

There’s one thing we’re torn on with the Tigers. It’s impressive that they can seemingly flip the switch, turning into absolute world-beaters when they need to - as seen both late against Essendon and after halftime against the Western Bulldogs a few weeks ago. But wouldn’t they be better off if they played a bit better the rest of the time too? On Champion Data’s expected score metric, Richmond only beat the Bombers by five points; they were not 39 points better. Anyone who’s saying all is well at Tigerland is going a bit too far, in our opinion. They’ll play finals thanks to one of the easier runs home, but they’re still a step back from the top four.

7. SYDNEY SWANS (8-4, 112.9%) ................... Last week’s ranking: 7
8. WEST COAST EAGLES (7-5, 108.2%) ........... Last week’s ranking: 9 (up one)
9. ESSENDON (5-7, 102%) ............................. Last week’s ranking: 8 (down one)
10. GWS GIANTS (5-6, 93.3%) ....................... Last week’s ranking: 10

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-2021-afl-power-rankings-after-round-12-afl-analysis-stats-every-team-ranked-ladder-top-eight-predictions/news-story/637794eb2fd02e698ef942138fe8413d

[one-eyed]

Veteran AFL journalist Mike Sheahan is not yet ready to declare anyone other than Richmond as flag favourites.

“Yep (they’re the team to beat). They’ve clearly been the best team of the last five years,” he told SEN Breakfast.

“What we saw on Saturday night is that the hunger is still there and they’ve got blokes to come back in.

“They’re entitled to be (flag favourites), they’re the defending champs and they’ve done nothing wrong so far.

“You’ve got to be able to get through Richmond to win the flag this year.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/07/mike-sheahan-names-his-premiership-favourite-at-the-bye-rounds/

[Rampsation]

Another flag here tops of this dynasty.

[mightytiges]

Another flag here tops of this dynasty.

4 in 5 years would top the other 21st century dynasties too IMHO. I think only Melbourne in the 50s and of course the Pies 4-peat have achieved such a record.

[one-eyed]

Just a reminder for the rest of the competition:

After 12 games:
2017 - 7 wins 5 losses (6th position on the ladder)
2019 - 7 wins 5 losses (7th)
2020 - 7 wins 1 draw 4 losses (6th)
2021 - 7 wins 5 losses (8th)

https://twitter.com/Jonesracing82/status/1402644085077250050

[one-eyed]

Gerard Whateley and Justin Leppitsch have named their top four seeds in the AFL after Round 13.

Whateley's seedings

1. Melbourne

“We’ve both got Melbourne at one.”

2. Western Bulldogs

“Dogs at two pending Friday night.”

3. Geelong

“I’ve got the Cats at three, just before they play the Dogs.”

4. Richmond

“I’ve kept Richmond in my seedings.

“They slide down from two to four. I’ve left the Lions out.”


Leppitsch's seedings

1. Melbourne

“Still got Melbourne at one.”

2. Geelong

“They’ve got their game humming at the moment.

“They’ve got their players back. They’ve now played together for a while. Jeremy Cameron is slotting nicely into that team.”

3. Western Bulldogs

“With (Adam) Treloar and (Josh) Dunkley coming back in a few weeks’ time, I think they’ll still be in that position.”

4. Brisbane

“They still play a good, competitive style and I think they’ll win at least eight of their games on the way home, which I think will keep them in that position.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2021/06/15/whateley-and-leppitsch-rank-their-top-four-seeds-after-round-13/

[one-eyed]

Richmond has only defeated one team in the top eight this season, which has experts wondering whether their shot at a three-peat is over.


https://twitter.com/FootyonNine/status/1404607337420050432

[one-eyed]

TAB ODDS – AFL PREMIERSHIP

$5.00    Melbourne (were $4.50)
$5.50    Geelong (were $6.50)
            Western Bulldogs
$6.00    Brisbane,
            Richmond
$8.00    Port Adelaide (were $7)
$15        West Coast (were $17)
$26        Sydney (were $17)
$41        GWS
$81        Essendon
$151      Fremantle (were $201)
             St Kilda
$201      Carlton
             Collingwood (were $251)
$251     Adelaide
$501      Gold Coast (were $251)
$1001   Hawthorn
            North Melbourne

https://www.sportsnews.com.au/afl/afl-round-14-odds-and-premiership-betting-preview-2021/567894