Anyone care to predict the State Election outcome for next Saturday? 88 seats total, 45 for the win.
Currently its something like:- ALP 45, LIB/NAT 37, GRN 3, IND 1( 2 vacant?)
Ill say ALP 50, LIB/NAT 31, GRN 4, IND 3
3-4% swing away from LIB/NAT.
The polls are showing a 1-2% swing to Labor. Uniformly that would see the ALP gain about 3 seats (Ripon, Morwell from the LNP and Melton which was Labor's in 2014) and maintain their majority in government.
However, swings are rarely uniform and there's about 4 battlezones that will decide the winner.
Inner City:
Due to changing demographics (more yuppies
), Brunswick is likely to fall to the Greens. If Labor loses Richmond and/or Albert Park then the Greens are likely to hold the balance of power whichever major party wins
. The Greens though have had a shocker of a campaign and they could lose Prahran to either Labor or Liberal.
South East suburbs:
The 4 Frankston line seats (Bentleigh, Mordialloc, Carrum and Frankston) have decided the past two elections as a block. The Libs will have to win most of these to win government. Further out, Cranbourne (ALP) and Bass (LNP) are the other two seats that could change hands.
Central-West Victoria:
Libs will be targeting Labor seats like Macedon. Labor after Ripon.
Rural:
Will more independents take seats off the Nats? LNP will have zero chance if that happens no matter what occurs elsewhere.
There could also be a few quirky changes if a more significant swing is on. Libs think they are chance in Eltham and up along the outer Hurstbridge line as well as around Pascoe Vale and Essendon. Labor thinks it could poach one or two seats in the Eastern suburbs like Glen Waverley & Burwood (which sit in the Federal Liberal seat of Chisholm whose Federal Liberal MP quit over bullying allegations) as well as Geelong's south coast.
