Do we have an economist amongst the posters.
Not an economist. I associate with the real sciences
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A long time ago, I did study financial quantitative analysis (the mathematical theory of finance). Using stochastic (probabilistic) maths to model and price derivatives, manage the risk of portfolios, hedge, speculate, arbitrage, etc. Interesting stuff actually.
Are we in a recession or not?
Are we in an overall economy (individuals+businesses) recession? No. While growth was negligible at 0.2% for the December quarter, it was still (just) in the positive. The annual growth rate for 2018 was 2.3% (down from 2.8%). That's 28 years of consecutive growth in Australia.
Are we in a per capita (per individual) recession?Yes! We've had two quarters in a row of negative 'growth' (i.e. a fall) per capita. By definition that's equates to a recession. The last time this occurred was in 2006.
How significant is low wage growth in relation to consumer spending?
During the housing boom (a rise in asset values), consumer spending remained fairly strong despite low wage growth. Now that there's been a decline in housing prices (and hence a fall in asset value), people are reining in their spending. This also coincides with a decline in savings as people used up their savings to offset low wage growth and the rising cost of living (eg: rising utility bills). This would explain the per capita recession.
