Author Topic: Australian Politics thread [merged]  (Read 739312 times)

Online Francois Jackson

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5730 on: May 18, 2022, 08:32:47 AM »
Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Yeah he does.

Don't think he will. I believe people have had a gutful of his lies, mismanagement of the pandemic, his refusal to establish an anti-corruption commission, his handling of Brittany Higgins rape allegations, the Tudge disgrace, the rorting (car parks, sports granrs) and his treatment of women

Will the ALP win enough seats to form a majority govt? Not sure on that one either

But whatever the result the Libs need to look at why seats that they've always held they are now losing. This mentality they have which Credlin espoused the other week of certain seats being "their right" to hold is IMHO the actual reason they are losing these seats. Kooyong is great example. I think Frydenberg will lose his seat. Rather than moaning about the teal and other independents they need to understand what they have done to rile folks so much that a once "blue ribbon" seat is likely to fall

As for the ALP if they can't win this one, they never will.

whilst majority being true i do laugh at the hypocritical nature of this post, only being reserved for one person or side. :shh :shh

loading up of teals in only LNP held seats has been a masterstroke by Holmes a court. Why isnt he loading up in ALP held seats? Reason is he knows he has their vote anyway, or most of them.

Kooyong already had a massive swing against LNP at the last election which if you have a look at the results and other contenders were all mainly left leaning, combined with the fact the demographic in the area has changed. There is only one result here from what i can see here.




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Offline WilliamPowell

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5731 on: May 18, 2022, 10:16:59 AM »
Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?

Yeah he does.

Don't think he will. I believe people have had a gutful of his lies, mismanagement of the pandemic, his refusal to establish an anti-corruption commission, his handling of Brittany Higgins rape allegations, the Tudge disgrace, the rorting (car parks, sports granrs) and his treatment of women

Will the ALP win enough seats to form a majority govt? Not sure on that one either

But whatever the result the Libs need to look at why seats that they've always held they are now losing. This mentality they have which Credlin espoused the other week of certain seats being "their right" to hold is IMHO the actual reason they are losing these seats. Kooyong is great example. I think Frydenberg will lose his seat. Rather than moaning about the teal and other independents they need to understand what they have done to rile folks so much that a once "blue ribbon" seat is likely to fall

As for the ALP if they can't win this one, they never will.

whilst majority being true i do laugh at the hypocritical nature of this post, only being reserved for one person or side. :shh :shh

loading up of teals in only LNP held seats has been a masterstroke by Holmes a court. Why isnt he loading up in ALP held seats? Reason is he knows he has their vote anyway, or most of them.

Kooyong already had a massive swing against LNP at the last election which if you have a look at the results and other contenders were all mainly left leaning, combined with the fact the demographic in the area has changed. There is only one result here from what i can see here.

Not quite sure why you are suggesting my post is hypocritical? The original question wasn't about Albo or the other side it was clearly about ScoMo

If the question was about Albo I would have answered.

But whatever... personally I'm not a fan of either but the bottom line is come Saturdsy night (and I believe we will indeed have a result Saturday night) one of them will be PM

Thank God I'll be at the footy won't have to put up with the next circus coming to town, the TV networks banging on about the result.
"Oh yes I am a dreamer, I still see us flying high!"

from the song "Don't Walk Away" by Pat Benatar 1988 (Wide Awake In Dreamland)

Online Damo

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5732 on: May 18, 2022, 10:41:11 AM »
Those that say "I am not voting for either Albo or ScoMo" don't understand our voting system. You have to number each box in the house of reps and therefore have to put one of Labor or Libs ahead of the other. Which becomes a vote for either Labor or the Coalition.
The exception to this is where there is an independent in a strong enough position to gain enough preferences to end up in first place.
Clear as mud.

Seeing as I studied politics, I’ve got a fair idea.
For starters, my vote means absolutely zero. My seat is as safe as safe can be. Labor can’t lose this seat.
I’ll actually be walking in and putting a blank piece of paper in the box. stuff em all

Offline WilliamPowell

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5733 on: May 18, 2022, 12:39:24 PM »
Seeing as I studied politics, I’ve got a fair idea.
For starters, my vote means absolutely zero. My seat is as safe as safe can be. Labor can’t lose this seat.
I’ll actually be walking in and putting a blank piece of paper in the box. stuff em all

Damo, I'm actually interested in this

I live in what used to be the safest federal Labor seat in the country. When I started voting it was held by 25% plus margin. Over the last 4 elections it has reduced to around 10%.

I've put this down to the demographic in the area changing; that is the more younger people moving in and the oldies (rusted on voters) passing on.

The other thing is also the informal vote. It has increased on average 2k-3k votes each election which impacts on the margin %.

So I am very interested to see what happens in my electorate this election. Will it decrease again or will it improve ...

Interested in your thoughts on my assumptions and also without saying which seat what the margin % is in your area



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from the song "Don't Walk Away" by Pat Benatar 1988 (Wide Awake In Dreamland)

Online Damo

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5734 on: May 18, 2022, 08:13:21 PM »
WP- knowing your electorate as well as I do from living there over 20 years .. the demographic there has changed significantly .. you are correct in regards to younger people moving in due to affordable housing estates, but I think another huge factor in your particular electorate is the huge Indian and Māori numbers (and other migrants) .. it’s gone from a working class area, to an affordable area for migrants and younger families as they are priced out of inner suburban Melbourne ..

So without doubt the change in demographics is massive where you are ..

As for my seat .. 8.9% , but no way the Libs are winning this seat (Bendigo)

Offline WilliamPowell

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5735 on: May 18, 2022, 08:28:12 PM »
WP- knowing your electorate as well as I do from living there over 20 years .. the demographic there has changed significantly .. you are correct in regards to younger people moving in due to affordable housing estates, but I think another huge factor in your particular electorate is the huge Indian and Māori numbers (and other migrants) .. it’s gone from a working class area, to an affordable area for migrants and younger families as they are priced out of inner suburban Melbourne ..

So without doubt the change in demographics is massive where you are ..

As for my seat .. 8.9% , but no way the Libs are winning this seat (Bendigo)

Thanks Damo

Good point re the Indian & Maori communities. I hadn't considered that but certainly makes a lot of sense.


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from the song "Don't Walk Away" by Pat Benatar 1988 (Wide Awake In Dreamland)

Online Damo

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5736 on: May 19, 2022, 07:21:39 PM »
At least we now know why Albo was refusing to answer and ran away like a girl

Gutless swine

How can we have such vital information made public AFTER more that 31% have voted .. what a farcical situation .. shouldn’t be allowed, by either party

Where is the transparency

Offline mightytiges

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5737 on: May 19, 2022, 07:49:25 PM »
Anybody think ScoMo has a chance of winning next Saturday?
Sadly and unbelievably he still has a chance although unlikely. If neither major party achieves a majority then the crossbenchers will become king makers. Of course Morrison will just do what he always does and lie and con with phony promises he'll never deliver to try to stay in power. He's already started this process with his "I'll promise to change if you vote me back in" crap this week.

Anyway, the Libs are hoping for:
- Not a uniform swing. Doesn't matter if safe seats swing quite a bit as they don't change hands. Limiting swings in marginals is the key. It's how Howard won in 1998. Lost the 2PP overall but still retained government. 
- Qld hardly swings or only a few % and there's no net change.
- Vic/NSW swaps seats for no net change. Labor has some very thin marginal seats due to the last election and the Libs will be hoping a high profile candidate like Andrew Constance contesting in Gilmore (NSW) will flip a seat or two to counter any lost seats elsewhere. The Libs will also be hoping they get over the line against the "Teals" and hold onto the wealthy inner city electorates in Melbourne and Sydney.
- Tas to hardly swing by promoting the local state government's covid response and not the Feds.
- Hope WA & SA have already got their anger out the way at the state elections and there's no net change. Unless there's a huge swing to Labor hardly any seats will change anyway. Only Boothby (SA) and Swan (WA) are under 4%.
- Gain a territory seat to overset a loss elsewhere in the country. 

Conversely, Labor are hoping the polls are right this time. The pollsters have changed their methods since 2019 and since then they got both the WA & SA election results correct. Labor needs a net gain of 7 seats to win a majority government (76 seats). A 3.5 to 4% uniform 2PP swing does that. Newspoll sits at ALP 54 LNP 46 (a 5% swing from 2019). Yougov poll the other day had Labor winning 80 seats (+11) to the LNP's 63 (-13) with 7 independents (+2) and 1 Green (Bandt).

We'll find out who is right Saturday night. Perhaps even Sunday morning if the final outcome depends on WA seats.


ps. By the way, thanks to the idiot who decided to hold the election on that same night as the Dreamtime game ::).

pps. Despite whoever wins, the country is in for a couple of very difficult years now the inflationary genie is out of the bottle with stagnant wages, a trillion dollars in debt, record budget deficits and interest rates according to the Futures market expected to rise to 3% by December this year. Thanks Morrison! "Strong" economy my arsenal :facepalm.

great lets talk economy, MT keen to hear your thoughts now on the Victorian economy and how that is tracking, or doesn't that count? :lol :lol
Ah Deflecting ;). I don't blame you. Even Morrison doesn't want Morrison anymore  :snidegrin.

Now we're entering the post-covid period the state's budget will return to surplus in the next couple of years. Slomo and Fraudenberg can't even promise that in a decade's time. They want 20+ years in power and not deliver one surplus  :wallywink.

I see and use all the new infrastructure assets thanks to the Vic government. Something that was ignored and put in the too hard basket by previous state governments for decades stretching back to the 50s/60s. Money actually spent to benefit us plebs rather than wasting tens of billions in taxpayers money handing over free cash to the LNP's corporate mates and donors as Morrison has done ::). My local area that I move about in has had 14 level crossing removals (with 2 more to come) and 11 new railway stations built (with one to come). Then there's all the new/upgraded local roads, schools, sport facilities, etc. We'll also have the metro rail tunnel finished in a couple of years (something the previous LNP gov under Baillieu & Napthine promised to build and then reneged).

What has Morrison built in Victoria? Imaginary car parks at imaginary stations  :lol. Takes our taxes from a state with 25% of the national population and throws back at us some 6% in crumbs. The baseball bats are waiting for them on Saturday!  :shh

deflection, your the bloke who bought up economy in response to question on who will win the election. :banghead

lets not forget the budget blow outs on the west gate, and every other road, ripped up contracts, quarantine fiasco and the massive wages paid out. No biggy. What is happening to the mickleham thing also?

who is defending Morrison, there were mistakes made, but i merely asked about the victorian economy which you have answered in your own left words as being in fantastic shape :lol
"left" .... Really? Grow up! ::)

Deflecting as in Federal politics was being discussed and you deflected by bringing up Andrews and state politics.

Mickleham is owned by the federal government who paid for its construction. The state government pays for the operating costs during the pandemic. When the pandemic is over it will be up to the Feds to decide what it will be used for next. There's talk of using it as emergency shelter for those fleeing bushfires or displaced Ukrainian refugees if the war over there ends up continuing for a long time. Obviously, it should have been built 18 months earlier but a certain someone refused to build purpose built quarantine facilities even emergency ones when told to by one of his own departments in September 2020. 
All you touch and all you see is all your life will ever be - Pink Floyd

Offline mightytiges

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5738 on: May 19, 2022, 08:57:24 PM »
loading up of teals in only LNP held seats has been a masterstroke by Holmes a court. Why isnt he loading up in ALP held seats? Reason is he knows he has their vote anyway, or most of them.

Kooyong already had a massive swing against LNP at the last election which if you have a look at the results and other contenders were all mainly left leaning, combined with the fact the demographic in the area has changed. There is only one result here from what i can see here.
The Teals are traditional small "l" liberals who believe the Liberal party has been hijacked by hardcore social/religious conservatives who have pushed the party away from the centre-right to the alt-right. Monique Ryan's views like most of the Teals are economically dry, pro-mainstream science and socially progressive. This is effectively a Liberal party civil war. It's why it's so personal and nasty. The Teals want to bring down the ultra-conservatives by attacking these wealthy progressive normally safe Liberal seats to deny the Liberal party government and force the party to have to move back to the centre to defeat Labor and win back power. Attacking Labor seats wouldn't achieve anything except maintain the status quo and they wouldn't win in traditional Labor seats anyway.   

I do find it bizarre that the modern LNP cheered on by the Murdoch media and the IPA see anyone who supports a mainstream science issue such as climate change as being politically "Left". Since when is mainstream science left-wing? :huh3 Can't a right-winger be an atheist? Can't a right-winger support the overwhelming evidence of AGW and use the need for change as an entrepreneurial opportunity? As conservative as Thatcher and Reagan were they were never anti-science. When greenhouse gases from human activity caused a hole in the Ozone layer they didn't see action to correct it as some left-wing conspiracy to create one-world government.

The modern LNP is so controlled now by ultra-religious DLP-types (Abbott/Morrison), Murdoch and the IPA that a number of traditional small "l" Liberal supporters see the party morphing into Trump Republicans where traditional Republicans who don't support Trump's BS like falsely claiming a rigged election are now mocked as RINOs (Republican In Name Only) and have zero chance of representing the party in parliament/congress. So much for individual freedom and standing up for truth! No wonder so many small "l" liberals are quitting and abandoning the party and supporting these Teal independents. They aren't switching to Labor. 
All you touch and all you see is all your life will ever be - Pink Floyd

Offline mightytiges

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5739 on: May 19, 2022, 10:30:09 PM »
Can't say I'm thrilled by Albo but the idea of another term with Morrison is surely worse.

This new policy they are suggesting whereby younger people can access their super to buy a house is bloody insane. It will only make housing affordability for first home buyers even worse and will damage their retirement savings.

Best thing to do would be abolish negative gearing progressively over a few years. If I buy blue chip stock and lose my cash does anyone give me a tax kickback for it? No. It's just a bad investment. Real estate needs to be treated the same - if you're losing money then you either wear it for the capital gains or don't bother over-extending yourself to properties you don't live in ffs.

Edit: people should be encouraged to put more into super. This could be achieved by implementing a tax-free contribution to replace negatively geared deductions etc. Would mean that more people dump money into super later in life instead of buying more houses.
WP would know for sure but I think you can use negative gearing on stocks if you borrow to pay for your margin (eg: if you're a stock trader) and your income from the stocks is less than what you've borrowed.

If it can't politically be abolished altogether then as a compromise I would cap and limit negative gearing on properties. Cap it for low-middle incomers and limit it to just 1-2 investment properties only. That still aides low-middle incomers to buy a little nest egg on the side for their retirement or whatever but it would prevent millionaire investors and property developers from using negative gearing on say 20 properties simply to gain a freebie tax break and an unfair advantage at auctions. Limit investors' buying power to open the market more for new home buyers trying to buy their actual home to live in.

As for freebie franking credits, as much as some want to stick their head in the sand and play politics  :whistle, that issue will not go away forever as the cost to the budget is and will become increasingly unsustainable. You can't have a system where more and more people get free money courtesy of the taxpayer while diminishing corporate tax revenue. The imputation system was designed to avoid double taxation; not free tax credit handouts to people who don't pay tax in the first place. As a compromise, it at the very least needs to be grandfathered and capped based on overall income and assets for those currently retired and using it and abolished for everyone else.   
All you touch and all you see is all your life will ever be - Pink Floyd

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5740 on: May 21, 2022, 01:44:17 AM »
Let's see how right or wrong the polls are this time?

Newspoll: (20 May)
Federal Primary Votes: LNP 35 ALP 36 GRN 12 ON 5 UAP 3 IND/Others 9
Federal 2 Party Preferred: LNP 47 ALP 53

Ipsos: (19 May)
Federal Primary Votes: LNP 35 ALP 36 GRN 13 ON 5 UAP 3 IND/Others 8
Federal 2 Party Preferred: LNP 47 ALP 53

Resolve NineFairfax: (17 May)
Federal Primary Votes: LNP 34 ALP 31 GRN 14 ON 6 UAP 4 IND 6 Others 4
Federal 2 Party Preferred: LNP 49 ALP 51

Morgan: (17 May)
Federal Primary Votes: LNP 34 ALP 34 GRN 13 ON 4 UAP 1 IND 9 Others 5
Federal 2 Party Preferred: LNP 47 ALP 53

https://twitter.com/GhostWhoVotes
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/race-tightens-poll-shows-coalition-lifting-support-and-labor-dropping-20220517-p5am44.html
https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8981-federal-voting-election-summary-may-20-2022-202205200633

Offline WilliamPowell

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5741 on: May 21, 2022, 09:32:00 AM »
Well today is the day

Some will be happy, some will be unhappy  :rollin

Reckon by about 11pm we will know one way or another  ;D

Democracy Sausage anyone?  :cheers

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Online Francois Jackson

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5742 on: May 21, 2022, 10:22:09 AM »
loading up of teals in only LNP held seats has been a masterstroke by Holmes a court. Why isnt he loading up in ALP held seats? Reason is he knows he has their vote anyway, or most of them.

Kooyong already had a massive swing against LNP at the last election which if you have a look at the results and other contenders were all mainly left leaning, combined with the fact the demographic in the area has changed. There is only one result here from what i can see here.
The Teals are traditional small "l" liberals who believe the Liberal party has been hijacked by hardcore social/religious conservatives who have pushed the party away from the centre-right to the alt-right. Monique Ryan's views like most of the Teals are economically dry, pro-mainstream science and socially progressive. This is effectively a Liberal party civil war. It's why it's so personal and nasty. The Teals want to bring down the ultra-conservatives by attacking these wealthy progressive normally safe Liberal seats to deny the Liberal party government and force the party to have to move back to the centre to defeat Labor and win back power. Attacking Labor seats wouldn't achieve anything except maintain the status quo and they wouldn't win in traditional Labor seats anyway.   

I do find it bizarre that the modern LNP cheered on by the Murdoch media and the IPA see anyone who supports a mainstream science issue such as climate change as being politically "Left". Since when is mainstream science left-wing? :huh3 Can't a right-winger be an atheist? Can't a right-winger support the overwhelming evidence of AGW and use the need for change as an entrepreneurial opportunity? As conservative as Thatcher and Reagan were they were never anti-science. When greenhouse gases from human activity caused a hole in the Ozone layer they didn't see action to correct it as some left-wing conspiracy to create one-world government.

The modern LNP is so controlled now by ultra-religious DLP-types (Abbott/Morrison), Murdoch and the IPA that a number of traditional small "l" Liberal supporters see the party morphing into Trump Republicans where traditional Republicans who don't support Trump's BS like falsely claiming a rigged election are now mocked as RINOs (Republican In Name Only) and have zero chance of representing the party in parliament/congress. So much for individual freedom and standing up for truth! No wonder so many small "l" liberals are quitting and abandoning the party and supporting these Teal independents. They aren't switching to Labor.

Trump.  I've heard it all now. 100% garbage. So scomo goes to church waves his hands and he has seen as alt right now, or a trump clone controlled by rupert murdoch.  :lol :lol Before scomo was Turnbull, yep far right as they come that bloke. Nice of you to conveniently leave his name out.

So voters have no issues with with the pandemic, ICAC, climate change, scomo, cost of living, housing issues, changing demographic or the fact the LNP have had a good turn at it. Nope. Just cause scomo is far right and went to church waving his hands in the air. FMD were you were an alter boy growing up, as religion only pops up a lot with you.

If you look at the LNP policies they are more aligned with the ALP than ever before, which is the major reason many traditional LNP voters are deserting them  Look at everything over the last few years its hard to tell the difference, which is why i expect the majors to see a swing against them.  I live in 1 of these electorates so unless you do as well how the hell would you know what they are saying/thinking, let alone think its all about 1 thing. I have spoken to many in my area, some i know and and some i have met in passing. My view is is they are upset with things like the lies, housing, and pandemic to name 3. I have not heard one tell me its because they are religious or trump clones. An example of this is a guy across the road who is in his 50's and is upset that LNP didnt do enough to help people buy a house as he has been renting for 20 years with his family. Plenty of places in the west he could have moved to as they apparently grow up "faster" over there, or outer south east  like most people do to start off with.

People want change simple and by taking over LNP held seats like the ones in question, with big $$$ thrown in by climate 200, they rob them of a majority. People want change and have had enough of the 2 major parties hence why many say both leaders are dull and hopeless.

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Online Francois Jackson

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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5743 on: May 21, 2022, 10:27:24 AM »
Well today is the day

Some will be happy, some will be unhappy  :rollin

Reckon by about 11pm we will know one way or another  ;D

Democracy Sausage anyone?  :cheers

are they still doing the sausage? They better be as im about to head over.

For those who like odds i find it interesting Monique Ryan is $2.60 and Zoe Daniel at $1.35. I would have thought both would be favorites.

$2.60 are pretty good odds
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Re: Australian Politics thread [merged]
« Reply #5744 on: May 21, 2022, 01:55:44 PM »
Well today is the day

Some will be happy, some will be unhappy  :rollin

Reckon by about 11pm we will know one way or another  ;D

Democracy Sausage anyone?  :cheers

are they still doing the sausage? They better be as im about to head over.

For those who like odds i find it interesting Monique Ryan is $2.60 and Zoe Daniel at $1.35. I would have thought both would be favorites.

$2.60 are pretty good odds

Yes some polling places have the Democracy Sausages going.

Of our 3 locals only one did.
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