I don't think we are out of the race. Not by a long shot.
Key is winning one of the next two. Either Hawthorn or St.Kilda. Both would be nice though and make things a little easier.
Assume we win one of the next two. Leaves us 4-6.
Freo at home. We beat them most time here at the G. 5-6
GWS away. We don't win this and forget finals 2012. 6-6
Adelaide AAMI We'll be brave but I can't see us knocking them off 6-7
Melbourne Away. Another one of these if they haven't one by then they may think they may knock us off. Danger game but it's in our hands 7-7.
Gold Coast@ Cairns. Surely we have learnt our lesson. Hopefully we don't fall into complacency given the quality of opponent we have faced in the first half of the season 8-7.
Nought Melbourne home MCG. We can't lose to these gypsies. At the G we can expose them for pace. 9-7.
Carlton away G. Given our recent record against them-loss 9-8.
Brisbane Lions Away Given our recent record against them win 10-8
Dogs Home at G. Time we put the puppies to sleep. It's been long enough. 11-8
Win one these next two and finals is a cert
Freo away or Essendon home game at the G. Leaves us 12-9.
Last game is Port at home. Should be a win but we have been burnt before. SHould win despite my reservations. Leaves us 13-9.
Percentage shoud not be that much of a problem given where we sit now.
Of course injuries psyche and complacency is something the coaching staff and the players need to look at. Can't afford to let our guard down once we start playing the weaker sides.
Ultimately it is in our hands. How much do we want it how much can our leadership group and next tier players take us as well as our bottom 6-8 and can they have a positive impact.
As I said it's in our hands still and given the way we have played I think we can. Another factor is if we get close enough to make the 8 are the team sufficiently prepared mentally to embrace that or will they drop a game or two in the run in they shouldn't and add the pressure and make their equation much harder with a must win in Perth against Freo or Essendon at the G.
Would rather we need to beat Port to make the 8 in Round 23 or better yet beat Essendon in Round 22 and seal our place. I think we can still make it.