2012 Brownlow Thread

[yellowandback]

The year of the Brownlow Tiger is 2012.
T Cotchin will poll 3 votes from Fri night and take an unassailable lead in this years Brownlow.

Bookmark it.

[tdy]

Tuck was the player the age picked to list in their 5 players of the round poll.  Cotchin is great but only 10 wins .  Has anyone done a breakdown, game by game?

[torch]

The year of the Brownlow Tiger is 2012.
T Cotchin will poll 3 votes from Fri night and take an unassailable lead in this years Brownlow.

Bookmark it.

Why so certain?

[Tigershark]

 Hopefully it will compliment jack's Coleman.

[one-eyed]

Cotch into $4.50

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-brownlow-medal

[WilliamPowell]

Tuck was the player the age picked to list in their 5 players of the round poll.  Cotchin is great but only 10 wins .  Has anyone done a breakdown, game by game?

What's wins got to do with it seriously?

GC have only won 3 games but Ablett Jnr will poll votes without any problems

[JVT]

Tuck was the player the age picked to list in their 5 players of the round poll.  Cotchin is great but only 10 wins .  Has anyone done a breakdown, game by game?

What's wins got to do with it seriously?

GC have only won 3 games but Ablett Jnr will poll votes without any problems

He will still poll well, correct. I reckon though, had GC won closer to 11 games, then Ablett would be a dead set certainty, hence people placing the emphasis on our wins 

Cotchin should be fine, last years voting showed the umpires take notice of him. 

[mat073]

Heres the breakdown...

rd 1 carlton ...27 disp 2 goals
rd 2 coll ....26 disp
rd 3 melb...22 disp 3 goals
rd 4 geel...24 disp
rd 5 WCE...29 disp
rd 6 port...18 disp
rd 7 syd..27 disp
rd 8 ess... 29 disp 3 goals ( won medal for bog)
rd 9 haw...31 disp
rd 10 st kil..29 disp
rd 11 freo ...30 disp
rd 12 GWS ...25 disp
rd 14 adel...25 disp
rd 15 melb...28 disp
rd 16 GC....38 disp
rd 17 North....24 disp
rd 18 carl....24 disp 3 goals
rd 19 bris...21 disp
rd 20 WB ...35 disp 3 goals
rd 21 freo..32 disp
rd 22 es...31 disp

[Stripes]

In my free time  I've had a look at the first 11 rounds based on disposals and the all important/relevant AFL Dream Team Points 

Round                    Cotchin                          Competing Players                        Stripes Prediction

1 - Carlton          27 Disposals (120 DT)                Murphy (116), Judd (93)                                      1 Vote/ 1 Vote 
               
2 - Collingwood    26 Disposals (88 DT Points)      Lids 35 (140), Rance 34 (138), Swan 32 (116)       0 Vote/ 1 Vote

3 - Melbourne      22 (110)                Tuck 30 (146), Grigg 37 (142), Conca 29 (134) Lids 27 (111)   3 Vote/ 4 Votes

4 - Geelong         24 (105)                  Selwood 27 (130), Taylor 29 (115), Tuck 27 (113), Bartel (108) 0 Vote/ 4 Votes

5 - West Coast     29 (110)                                 Foley 27 (109), Lids 26 (101)                                2 Votes / 6 Votes

6 - Port               18 (67)                     Lids 24 (107), Maric 20 (124), Tuck 28 (102)                       0 Votes/ 6 Votes

7 - Sydney          27 (96)                    Grigg 25 (114), Lids 25 (104),  Maric 17 (102)                       1 Vote/ 7 Votes

8 - Essendon       29 (143)                   Lids 35 (160), Watson 30 (134), Stanton 29 (124)                3 Votes/ 10 Votes

9 - Hawks           31(113)   Tuck 35 (152), Lids 32 (141), Jack 16(135), Foley 27(125), Maric 18 (122) 2 Votes/12 Votes

10 - Saints          29 (97)                  Jack 20 (147),  Maric 20(116), Lids 29 (102)                             1 Vote/ 13 Votes

11 - Fremantle             30 (112)               de Boer 29 (147), Tuck 29(124), Pavlich 17 (107)                1 Vote/ 14 Votes



Now statistic are rarely a reliable guide for the Charlie but I have Cotch on 14 Votes by round 11.Swan won with 34 votes last year     Lids, Maric and Jack would have pinched a few away from him but, even though he has consistent superior numbers, Tuck is unlikely to poll to high.

Unless someone else wants to have a crack at it, I'll try and do the last half of the season later.

Cheers 

[Stripes]

mat - just got in before me 

[froars]

Cotch into $4.50

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-brownlow-medal

I got him at $51 

[Phil Mrakov]

Cotch into $4.50

http://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/australian-rules/afl-brownlow-medal

I got him at $51 

You bastard. I had the option of getting Cotch or Dusty at $51 and I flipped a coin and went with Dusty.

Fml

[Stripes]

Round                    Cotchin                          Competing Players                        Stripes Prediction

12 - GWS          25 Disposals (87 DT)            Lids 30 (108), Tuck 34 (106), Maric 16(113)           2 Vote/ 16 Votes 
               
14 - Adelaide    25 Disposals (111 DT Points) Thompson 32 (128), Maric 17(122), Lids 29 (115)       2 Vote/ 18 Votes

15 - Melbourne      28 (106)                 Grigg 35 (123), Tuck 35 (117) Lids 23 (105)                    3 Votes/ 21 Votes

16 - Gold Coast         38 (137)          Lids 36(141) Ablett 33 (128), Jack 16(112)                          3 Vote/ 24 Votes

17 - Nth Melb     24 (101)                       Petrie 13(128), Anthony 26(113), Havey 24 (106)          0 Votes / 24 Votes

18 - Carlton       24 (114)                     Murphy 33(113), McLean 27 (120),                                 2 Votes/ 26 Votes

19 - Lions          21 (103)                    Lids 25 (126), Grigg 26 (115),  Maric 16 (121)                       1 Vote/ 27 Votes

20 - Western Bulldogs   35 (152)         Lids 31 (121), Grigg 27 (122), Jack 20 (116)                       3 Votes/ 30 Votes

21 - Fremantle           32(101)     Mundy 32 (130), Duffield 25 (113), Ballantyne 24(105),               0 Votes/30 Votes

22 - Essendon          31 (145)            Lids 33 (117),  Martin 25(119), Tuck 33 (131)                         3 Votes/ 33 Votes

23 - Port Power            ????                              ?????                                                ? Vote/ 33-36 Votes



I tried to be as conservative as possible. At the very least Cotch will be in the place getters. The two factors going against Cotch is our loses and lids taking votes off him. Other than these two I'm starting to feel more confident. 



Cheers 

[Loui Tufga]

36 votes and he will cream it!!!!
20 - 25 votes would be a more Conservative amount

[yellowandback]

Guys,

Here is the logic (and thanks to Stripes because it is there for all to see from a stats perspective) but he has the raw numbers in possessions to be prominent as a mid

Cotch is the stand out player in our side (think Crawford in 1999)
Cotch polls well - 16 votes last year
Cotch is playing in a team that will poll in most games this year - we have won 10 - 11 games and been up to our neck in pretty much every other game
We have had 6 games with wins more than 6 goals which pretty much guarantees us the 1,2,3 in each of those games
Cotch is in the top 5 in the comp for avg frees for - umps love chimp.

The danger is Sam Mitchell.
Abletts side was obliterated in too many games
Swans missed too many games
Beams is an unknown quantity
Jibes team has been uncompetitive for 10 weeks.