Adam Treloar says Collingwood’s list is better than Richmond’s — is he right?Al Paton
Herald Sun
November 20, 2015 RATING THE LISTSTreloar might wish he had seen an early draft of the Champion Data 2016 Prospectus before his Falls Creek press conference.
The AFL stats gurus provide a complete rating of every club’s list, and they have given a sneak peak on the Magpies and Tigers.
Collingwood has two players rated elite for their position — Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.
The Tigers have five — Alex Rance, Dustin Martin, Brett Deledio, Jack Riewoldt and Bachar Houli.
There were seven “above average” Magpies at the start of last season — Dane Swan, Travis Varcoe, Steele Sidebottom, Jarryd Blair, Jamie Elliott, Paul Seedsman and Marley Williams. Based on 2015 form Swan returns to the elite bracket for 2016 while Varcoe, Sidebottom, Williams and Elliott should hold their spots. Paul Seedsman was traded to Adelaide and Jarryd Blair is touch and go.
Taylor Adams is a certainty to jump into the “above average” category along with former Lion Jack Crisp.
Treloar will also be there and ex-Demon Jeremy Howe might too (he was rated above average 12 months ago), but the jury is out on James Aish, who was rated below average last year but with the potential of a No.7 draft pick.
And the Pies have No.5 pick Jordan de Goey, pick 6 Matt Scharenberg and father-son gun Darcy Moore, who should all be pushing towards elite in the next 2-3 years, plus a 10-year ruckman in Brodie Grundy.
The downside is the loss of No.10 pick Nathan Freeman to St Kilda and No.19 pick Ben Kennedy to Melbourne — and the age of Swan (32 next February) and Travis Cloke (29 in March), who could both be gone when the likes of Treloar, Adams and De Goey reach their prime. Cloke’s powers have faded but replacing him will be top of the list management agenda — the Pies’ leading goalkickers this year were Jamie Elliott (35), Cloke (34) and Alex Fasolo (17) which isn’t a recipe for premiership success.
At Richmond, meanwhile, Martin and Houli jumped into the elite category while Shane Edwards has slipped back to above average.
Nick Vlastuin and Troy Chaplin did enough to stay in the above average category along with Ivan Maric and Trent Cotchin, although the captain’s elimination final performance will haunt him for a while.
Chris Yarran was rated elite at the start of the year but is set for a tumble, although the Tigers will be hoping he plays more like the 2014 Yarran than the 2015 version at Punt Rd.
There aren’t many players dropping from the top bracket, but there aren’t a lot pushing up from below either, with Brandon Ellis (rated average last year) the clear standout. The Tigers need the likes of Reece Conca (average), Ty Vickery (average) plus first-round draft picks Ben Lennon and Corey Ellis to make the jump.
BUCKY’S TAKEFormer Hawthorn recruiter Gary Buckenara put every club’s list under the microscope after the 2015 season. Here’s a quick version of what he said about the Magpies and Tigers.
COLLINGWOODNathan Buckley has a number of quality young players on his list and the sky is the limit for the group next season — finals are a non-negotiable and even challenging for a premiership isn’t out of the question.
It was inexperience that cost them this season, while bad luck with injuries also played a role but as a club internally, they’d still be disappointed.
For mine, the Pies have been disappointing the last couple of years even though they have been in a bit of a development/rejig mode. It’s time for them to start delivering.
I see them being a contender next year — as I said earlier as a minimum should play finals in 2016 — but if not next year in terms of challenging then definitely in 2-3 years the Pies should be knocking on the door of winning a premiership.
Richmond fans can expect to see a lot more of youngster Corey Ellis next season. Picture: Colleen Petch
RICHMONDThe time is now, Richmond. Your premiership window is open.
The fact is this list as it stands, with the addition of Chris Yarran during the trade period, can beat anyone on its day. They are a very dangerous side with a good spread of talent across all lines. It’s consistency and lack of confidence that holds the group back.
What I have learnt by analysing Richmond’s list at the conclusion of 2015 and heading into next year is that the Tigers are definitely in the window and must win a premiership in the next two to three years or they risk missing out and sliding back down the ladder … again.
September action is a non-negotiable for the next three years.
THE VERDICTTreloar is wrong if he’s talking about right now — the Tigers’ list is well stocked with high-grade talent and ready to challenge for a flag. That’s hardly surprising looking at what happened this year when Richmond won 15 games to Collingwood’s 10, including a 91-point thumping of the Pies in Round 21. Richmond’s main problem is turning that into results in September.
But if Treloar is looking a couple of years into the future, he might have a point.
While Richmond’s core of Cotchin (25), Riewoldt (27) and Martin (24) are all in their prime, there are some concerns at the top end in the form of 29-year-olds Troy Chaplin and Ivan Maric, while Brett Deledio is 28.
The bigger worry is making an impact while the window is open — something the Tigers have conspicuously failed to do in the past three seasons — before being overtaken by the juggernauts of GWS and Gold Coast. And possibly Collingwood.
Sidebottom, Adams, Moore, de Goey, Crisp and Grundy — plus Treloar and Aish — form a group ready to bust open the flag window. And while Swan and Cloke might be in the twilight of their careers, superstar Pendlebury is still only 27 and has just signed a four-year contract.
Interestingly given the state of each club’s list, Collingwood traded away pick 7 in this year’s draft and their first-round pick next year in the Treloar deal — so they are banking on the current squad delivering. While Richmond has pick 12, the Pies don’t get a look in until pick 27 this year and the story will be similar next year.
The first test for Treloar’s theory will be in Round 2 next year when Collingwood and Richmond face off on a Friday night at the MCG.
That game suddenly has a lot more spice, and is it a coincidence it’s on April 1?
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