The AFL website reckons we would've taken Hill if Collier-Dawkins hadn't been available.
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If the Dogs had taken Caldwell, Smith would have gotten past Adelaide and the Giants, and Port Adelaide would not have drafted him either.
It's why Richmond, who started the draft back at pick 17, were in touch with Port Adelaide on draft day and were monitoring the situation if Smith became available. A trade offer for Port's second pick was likely if Smith slipped past the Dogs.
But Smith didn't drop.
Port weighed up Clark with its second choice (No.12) before going with Butters, but that selection had implications. Geelong (No.15) chose between Clark and Riley Collier-Dawkins, having called Clark five times during his flight from Perth to Melbourne on Thursday. They wanted to triple-check he was fine about relocating, but after he gave his assurances, chose him that night ahead of Victorian Collier-Dawkins.
Had Port picked Clark, Geelong would likely have chosen Collier-Dawkins and Richmond, back at their No.20 pick, would have had a much different night given they were relieved Collier-Dawkins was still available at their spot.
Adelaide (No.16) wanted McHenry for a long time and weighed up trying to slide him through to their third pick. However, Port would have taken the small forward with the following selection, and the Tigers loomed large too, so the Crows pounced.
Collier-Dawkins was at this point falling down the order, which made other clubs jump to attention. St Kilda was particularly active in trying to get back into the first round, with Collier-Dawkins believed to be on their radar. They offered the Crows a similar trade to Carlton for that pick 19, including the Saints' top pick next year, but Adelaide knocked it back.
He wasn't in the minds of Port with their third pick (No.18), and neither was Stocker, with the club believing it had enough bigger-bodied midfielders.
Carlton surprised many when it traded its first-round pick for next year to Adelaide for the Crows' pick 19 this year and their first-rounder next year, so they could jump up to take midfielder Liam Stocker, who had fallen down the draft board.
The Blues rated Stocker as the sixth best player in the 2018 crop, and wanted another midfielder to bring in alongside their No.1 choice Sam Walsh.
Richmond spoke to Collier-Dawkins in the days before the draft but had he not gotten through to them, the Tigers would likely have chosen Hill of the remaining players, his talent too hard to pass up despite the Tigers not necessarily being desperate for another small forward. The Tigers had more calls for that selection but held it and added to their midfield.
Further proof that, in the early stages of the draft at least, every pick has an implication for the next, and the next and the next.
http://www.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-29/how-2018s-biggest-draft-shock-almost-didnt-happen
