On the other hand, this article sees Lynch going to Richmond because we've become "the AFL’s new apex predator".
Gold Coast to let Lynch go unimpeded as the pick 3 compo in this draft is worth more than our first pick 18 plus one of Houli, Grigg or Miles and the Suns could trade separately for one or more of our players that we are willing to let go.
I'm guessing as an example:
Richmond: Lynch (FA), 4th round pick (trade).
Gold Coast: pick 3 compo (FA), Miles (trade)
Or even a 3rd rounder if we give them a couple of fringe players (Lloyd etc..)
Lynch’s Sun sets, now it’s Tiger Tom timeJosh Elliott
theRoar.com.au
3 Aug 2018And so, as has seemed inevitable for a while now, Tom J Lynch has confirmed that he will be leaving the Gold Coast Suns at the end of season 2018.
Before we delve any further into this, let me say that I am a fan of both Lynch and the Suns being forthright about the circumstances being what they are.
It’s been evident to anyone reading between the lines for a while now that Lynch was as good as gone, and I applaud their decision not to waste time playing cat and mouse for the last month of the season.
Instead club and player have made what looks like a relative clean break, and done it in as classy as fashion as possible under the circumstances, allowing both to do what they need to do next.
For Lynch, that is to decide just exactly where he will be playing next year – although if you believe some, the decision has already been made.
AFL.com.au reported last night that, having surveyed a range of professionals in the industry, there was a “unanimous” response predicting that Lynch will join Richmond in 2018.
Lynch’s decision had been seen as a race in three for some time between the Tigers as well as Hawthorn and Collingwood.
In February this year my prediction was that Lynch would join Hawthorn. Why? The simple logic was that they seemed to want him, and what Hawthorn want, they tend to get.
However since then we’ve seen a new big cat become king of the jungle as Richmond have converted what was something of a surprise premiership in 2017 into genuine domination of the competition in 2018.
Lynch choosing to become Tiger Tom rather than another happy Hawk makes clear the very same thing that I prophesied just a month ago:
Richmond are the AFL’s new apex predator, and as such will enjoy the lion’s – sorry, the Tiger’s – share of wantaway trade market talent.
Of course, it’s worth noting that Lynch has also met with Collingwood twice in recent weeks, which Damian Barrett has claimed made Richmond ‘nervous’. I wouldn’t put too much stock in it, but nothing is guaranteed.
The first and most crucial is the future of their leadership. They’ve already confirmed that Lynch’s role as a co-captain of the club has been rescinded, making Steven May the sole skipper for the remainder of the 2018 season.
May and David Swallow are the strongest candidates to take up the role for the longterm in 2019 and beyond, the problem being that both have been in the trade rumour news lately.
I speculated a bit about this in my Sunday column: the short version is, I suspect that the Suns have asked first May then Swallow to commit as captain for the longterm, but both have baulked at the request.
Both players have been at the Suns since the inception of the club and, like Lynch, both will feel they have earned some right to go and seek out the kind of success which doesn’t seem likely to arrive at the Gold Coast any time soon. They would both be restricted free agents at the end of 2019.
Having just been through a season where they were forced to endure public speculation about the future of their captain, would Gold Coast be willing to sit through it again in 2019?
Or would they be willing to trade May and Swallow early – if their intention is to leave – so as to put themselves in the best position possible to make a fresh start with players who are committed to the club’s future?
It’s all speculation at the moment, but it appears there are a lot of dominoes lined up to fall. In addition to Lynch, May and Swallow, there’s been talk about all three of Aaron Hall, Jack Scrimshaw and Will Brodie, and I note with interest that Kade Kolodjashnij is out of contract this year, and Peter Wright, Jack Martin and Touk Miller all will be at the end of 2019.
Their second big decision to make will be whether or not to match the offer Richmond makes for Lynch – given he’s a restricted free agent, they have the right to do so.
The Suns’ statement, released on Thursday, hinted at this possibility, stating: “Tom understands all the mechanics of being a Restricted Free Agent, which ultimately can’t come to a conclusion until October.”
Essentially it will be a choice between accepting a free agency compensation pick that will come directly after their first selection in the draft (currently, this would mean they have picks 2 and 3), or forcing Richmond to trade.
Probably the ideal scenario is that they would be able to prise a quality mature player and a first-round pick from Richmond, but this seems unrealistic as there is unlikely to be a Richmond player of worthy quality willing to be part of that deal.
Uncontracted players like Bachar Houli, Shaun Grigg or Anthony Miles might be an option, but if they are willing to come to Gold Coast they could probably be cheaply acquired in a separate transaction.
For that reason I’d expect the Suns will let Lynch go unimpeded and accept the compensation pick – this year’s top end of the draft is simply too good to let an opportunity to take two of the top three slide by.
What it most likely means is that they’ll get whichever of Jack Lukosius or Sam Walsh Carlton decide to pass on with pick 2, and then at pick 3 have a choice between Max and Ben King, Izak Rankine and Bailey Smith – with their decision there no doubt resting somewhat on whether it’s Lukosius or Walsh at the first selection.
Walsh would be the ideal recruit for the Suns and might be the longer-term answer to their leadership dilemma.
The Lynch decision of course will also have a major flow-on effect not just at the Suns, but also at the Tigers, and at the clubs that have been unsuccessful in pursuing his signature.
For the Tigers it has long been speculated that they’ll need to say goodbye to some players in order to fit Lynch into their salary cap, and this could mean premiership players Houli and Grigg are forced out of the club.
I think Houli would be a great fit at the GWS Giants if they can find the cap room, while Grigg would be valuable to a club looking to bring in someone to set professional training standards – the Suns perhaps, or ironically his old club Carlton.
You would have to think it’s a virtual certainty now also that Shai Bolton will depart the club and return home to Western Australia – probably to Fremantle – and Anthony Miles, Corey Ellis, Oleg Markov and Sam Lloyd will probably be up for grabs too if there are any takers.
At Collingwood the news is a blow to their hopes of bolstering their very much undermmanned key positions stocks, and things might get worse still if Darcy Moore departs the club at the end of 2018.
It has long been rumoured that the Sydney Swans are targetting Moore, and the longer that drags on the more likely it looks that he will not be playing with them in 2019.
That said it’s possible that missing out on Lynch will spur the Pies into action on Moore, which could still lead to him re-signing with Collingwood.
Steven May looms as the Magpies’ next choice of big target this offseason if indeed Gold Coast are willing to cut their losses and trade him.
If Lynch did go against expectation and pick the Pies as a trade destination, it might actually be the ideal trade scenario for both parties.
The Suns could let Lynch go for free and then agree with Collingwood to swap May for two first-round picks (Collingwood’s first and Sydney’s first, assuming they get it for Darcy Moore) – radically improving Collingwood’s tall stocks at a very fair price, and delivering the Suns the best draft bounty possible.
However I also have something of a left-field idea for them: Jonathan Patton. While the big man has just gone in for his third knee reconstruction and wouldn’t make an immediate impact, it’s possible both he and the Giants would be open to a fresh start, and he wouldn’t cost a great deal.
We might now also see Collingwood re-sign players like Josh Thomas, Jamie Elliott, Levi Greenwood and Alex Fasolo.
Things are less clear at Hawthorn – they’re very good at keeping stuff under their hats. The good news for them is that it has been rumoured Alastair Clarkson will be re-signing to coach the club until the end of 2022.
I wouldn’t be surprised if the unclear nature of Clarkson’s future at the club has been something of an impediment towards attracting talent this year – having that locked in will be a boon.
Could they take a late swing at Andrew Gaff? He’s expected to remain at West Coast – Melbourne considered his main suitor if he doesn’t – but perhaps a fresh offer from the Hawks would throw the status quo a curveball.
The Hawks have been known for delivering post-season surprises, and really I can think of no more accurate metaphor than to say that Clarkson is the AFL trade period’s little yakuza guy: “Look at him. He’s going to do something and you know it’s going to be good.”
https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/08/03/lynchs-sun-sets-now-tiger-tom-time/
