Author Topic: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]  (Read 44690 times)

Offline Jonesracing82

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #420 on: August 16, 2022, 01:35:44 AM »
Funny isn't it, our haters have all written us off yet are worried about us. I know Cats fans that are pooting themselves at the thought of playing us.

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #421 on: August 16, 2022, 04:38:03 AM »
Whateley now has Richmond number 2 in his seedings .
Kingy - has them 4th

KING:

1. Geelong

“We always talk about who’s best is the best, it’s miles better than the rest.”

2. Sydney

“I think they’re the biggest threat to Geelong right now.

“Super healthy, playing a brilliant, basic brand of defensive footy that’s got flair once they win the ball and wildcards forward of centre.

“They’re right in the fight.”

3. Melbourne

“I’ve got Melbourne at three with not a lot of love and low confidence.

“Low confidence in my four and low confidence in my three.”

4. Richmond

“I don’t think they can win it because I think defensively the gaps are too big.

“But of the rest, they’re the most dangerous, their system is still very good when they play the turnover game.”



WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“We’ve both for Geelong at one.”

2. Richmond

“This is my overreaction of the week.

“Straight to two. There’s something going on there.”


3. Sydney

“There was so much that made sense yesterday (Sunday).”

4. Melbourne

“Kudos for winning, I’m not all-in on Melbourne just at the moment.”

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/08/15/king-and-whateleys-top-4-seeds-after-round-22-2022/

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #422 on: August 16, 2022, 05:14:59 PM »


And, of course, those 4 losses & draw were only by a combined 15 points.

Online Francois Jackson

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #423 on: August 16, 2022, 05:28:06 PM »
Happy to make finals and enjoy the ride.  I do look forward to see what kind of defensive pressure we apply in the elimination final more than anything.

That is thing that is going to make us impress in September, and its been pretty poor at times this year. Last weeks game was a good result, but hawks gave us nothing and i suspect if there isn't a change of coach this week then the same will apply.

MRJ and Dusty are our wild cards. I wonder if Stack has been ear marked as another.



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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #424 on: August 16, 2022, 05:45:51 PM »
MRJ and Dusty are our wild cards. I wonder if Stack has been ear marked as another.
If we do it, it will definitely be more of a 2017 horses for courses team--guys like Townsend, Graham, even Butler. It's funny, but I reckon the team knows they're just a little bit past it now, and sometimes the most important thing to do is convince yourself that you're capable. That's why I think we need wildcards like you said. Miller, MRJ, Sonsie, Cumberland have mercifully come in right in the nick of time and restored a little belief to an older team that thought they didn't have it in them anymore. A couple more young wildcards and a returning superstar and we could just ride the wave. The belief just wasn't there with the Soldo (for Miller), Aarts (for MRJ), Castagna (for Cumberland) and Ross (for Sonsie) lineup. We're not afraid to make these decisions (Pickett 2019) so I hope they make them again.

Offline one-eyed

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Richmond won’t win premiership, says David King (HeraldSun)
« Reply #425 on: August 16, 2022, 07:15:09 PM »
AFL 2022 watch Pure Footy: Richmond won’t win premiership, says David King

David King and Daniel Hoyne look at the latest trends in the AFL after round 22.

Richmond is on the charge, and fans of other finalists are worried. But a stats guru says there is one huge flaw that rules out another Tiger premiership.

News Corp Australia Sports Newsroom
August 16, 2022 - 3:31PM


The Tiger train is coming. But one serious flaw will prevent Richmond claiming a fourth premiership in six years, according to the stats gurus.

Richmond’s era looked over when it trailed Brisbane by 42 points in the second quarter in round 20. But after roaring back to steal victory, the Tigers have backed it up with convincing wins against Port Adelaide and Hawthorn to lock in a return to finals.

They are widely seen as the most dangerous challenger in the bottom half of the eight with a forward line boasting Tom Lynch, Jack Riewoldt, Shai Bolton and surprise packet Noah Cumberland.

But the club’s biggest issue all year has been at the other end of the ground, and is set to be exposed in September according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne and North Melbourne champion David King.

“It’s very easy in this industry to get sucked in to teams winning a couple of games and looking good, especially those teams that have had success in previous campaigns,” Hoyne said on Pure Footy, the weekly AFL analysis show exclusive to heraldsun.com.au.

He said Richmond’s attack was the fourth-best in the competition, but the Tigers ranked 13th without the footy and 12th for clearances – a very similar profile to Essendon last season and West Coast in 2019.

“They were both offensively strong ... but in terms of what they were doing without the footy, it was a concern – and week one of finals, they’re out. And Richmond is that team this year.

“What they are doing with the footy is the reason they are dangerous. In the first final if you’re not on and you have a bad day defensively, they will get through you and they will beat you because they are so dangerous.

“But if you’re switched on and you are there defensively, they give you a sniff going back the other way.

“Their defensive profile is something that they haven’t had in their successful finals campaigns. They will have to do it in a totally different way to how they did it from 2017-20.”

King was emphatic: “I’m telling you they’re not winning it because their defensive profile doesn’t stack up. I think they know that and they are embracing the shootout.”

https://www.codesports.com.au/afl/pure-footy-david-king-and-daniel-hoyne-look-at-the-latest-trends-in-the-afl-after-round-22/news-story/b9141b81574130709a9e970fe41898e5

Offline Jonesracing82

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #426 on: August 16, 2022, 11:09:14 PM »
King says that today but had us 4th in his seedings yesterday. a bit confusing...

Offline one-eyed

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Richmond Tigers stalk premiership (Age)
« Reply #427 on: August 17, 2022, 05:02:09 PM »
Richmond Tigers stalk premiership

Rohan Connolly
The Age
August 17 2022 - 2:22pm


Geelong might already have top spot wrapped up, but the other seven positions in the final eight are still up for grabs, 10 teams with at least a mathematical chance of playing finals.

There's a new level of evenness among the various flag contenders this season, too, for a couple of reasons.

One is that the pre-finals bye in place since 2016 has diluted the advantage the double chance the top four teams once had via an extra week's rest and recovery, the Western Bulldogs winning a flag from seventh in 2016, Greater Western Sydney reaching a grand final from sixth in 2019.

But the other factor, though, is a massive premiership wildcard specific to this season. And its name is Richmond.

The Tigers are again building a full head of steam towards a serious tilt at what would be a fourth AFL premiership in six seasons.

You wouldn't have thought it possible just three weeks ago when they had won only one of their past five games and were 10th on the ladder. But that was a very fine line which included a draw and three defeats by a combined nine points.

The second-half comeback against Brisbane which followed has woken the sleeping giant. And there wouldn't be a team in the top eight not now looking very anxiously over their shoulders at the yellow and black surge coming from Punt Road.

Richmond has upped the ante and is again playing to a level it hasn't reached arguably since taking out the 2020 flag.

In midfield, Dion Prestia is starring, skipper Trent Cotchin has got back to his best, and there's still a huge September wildcard in Dustin Martin to be added to the mix.

But things have changed most dramatically on the scoreboard. Richmond's famous fanatical forward half pressure is back to its best with the likes of Maurice Rioli pivotal to that improvement. So has been the introduction of the energetic Noah Cumberland. And Tom Lynch is in superb nick with 16 goals in the past three games.

You could have had considerable odds only a month or so ago about both Rioli and Cumberland becoming critical parts of the equation. But Cumberland has averaged 2.5 goals per game over a half-dozen appearances now.

And Rioli's influence on that famed Richmond pressure on the opponent has already become profound.

Prior to last week, Champion Data had Rioli leading the AFL for points created from turnovers forced by pressure acts from just a dozen games this season. The next four players on those rankings all had fewer points but from eight more games. Rioli's pressure has been that good.

The cumulative impact is that the Tigers are hitting the scoreboard a lot harder, having topped 100 points in each of the past three games after passing that mark just once in the previous seven games.

If this is ringing a few bells for people, it was a similar story late in Richmond's famous drought-breaking 2017.

That year, the Tigers' capacity to turn that pressure into tangible scoreboard returns went to a whole new level at precisely the right moment, topping the 100-point mark four times in their last five games, including the preliminary and grand finals, after having managed to do so only once in the preceding nine games.

Some new faces similarly injected some more spark into the line-up, Jacob Townsend, like Cumberland, becoming a surprising new source of goals, and Jack Graham, like Rioli now, helping Richmond ramp up the pressure.

Which isn't to suggest, of course, that 2022 will go the same way. The Tigers are doing it harder defensively these days, without the class and experience of the likes of David Astbury and Bachar Houli, and Dylan Grimes' hamstring issues haven't helped, the defensive general expected to miss the first week of finals at least.

But Richmond's renewed scoreboard potency has it sitting second on the rankings for points scored, behind only Brisbane. The Tigers never ranked any higher than fifth in any of those premiership years of 2017, 19 or 2020. Who's to say they can't climb the mountain for a fourth time a different way this time? They know what it takes. They're hitting form at exactly the right moment again.

And at the very least, those top teams when the final eight is sorted out once and for all come Sunday will have every reason to fear a very large presence looming just a little lower on the ladder.

https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7864370/richmond-tigers-stalk-premiership/

Offline one-eyed

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The concerning stat for Richmond heading into the finals (SEN)
« Reply #428 on: August 17, 2022, 05:03:40 PM »
THE CONCERNING STAT FOR RICHMOND HEADING INTO THE FINALS

By Hugh Fitzpatrick
SEN
17 August 2022


Richmond looms as the dark horse heading into the 2022 finals.

Their current form is frightening, winning their last three games by an average of six goals, playing a style of footy that is giving AFL fans flashbacks to the Richmond of 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 - years that saw them win three premierships.

Tom Lynch is playing like Wayne Carey, Dion Prestia looks fit and healthy, Shai Bolton is out of this world and Dustin Martin has been declared fit for the finals – it’s all coming together down at Punt Road.

Despite their form, there is one aspect of their game that is alarming, according to Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne.

Richmond has scored the second most points in the competition - but are ranked 13th without the footy - a stat that doesn’t bode well for sides in the finals.

“Daniel Hoyne from Champion Data says there’s one stat at the moment that is a little bit concerning if you’re a Richmond fan,” Tim Watson told SEN Breakfast.

“They’re ranked 13th in the competition without the footy, he says that profile with that particular stat doesn’t go well for you in the finals series.

“What does that mean to the layperson?”

Garry Lyon explained what that statistic means.

“Kingy (David King) and Hoyney are big on this one,” Lyon said.

“It’s the way they defend without the footy basically, conceding balls inside 50 and all that sort of stuff. It stacks up.

“I don’t study it as deeply as those guys do on that particular stat.

“They can score, that’s the big thing if you’re a Tiger fan. They can score.”

Damien Hardwick’s side sits ninth in the league for points conceded, but average 96.3 points per game including scores of 100+ in their past three outings.

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2022/08/17/the-concerning-stat-for-richmond-heading-into-the-finals/

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #429 on: August 17, 2022, 05:06:04 PM »
Power Rankings after Round 22

Max Laughton
Foxsports
17 August 2022


1. Geelong
2. Sydney
3. Melbourne
4. Brisbane
5. Collingwood

6. RICHMOND (12-8-1, 118.7%)

Last week’s ranking: 7

As frequent readers of this column know, we’ve been Richmond believers for a while - the whole ‘being 9-8 with a draw after three winless weeks’ thing forced us to drop them a bit - and when you look at the big picture it’s not hard to see why opposition clubs might be frightened of them come September. The Tigers’ combined losing margin in all of their losses since Round 7 is 15 points. Throw in the draw against Freo, and they’re three goals from being undefeated since Anzac Day. So yeah, they’re pretty good. They’re also going to have to win four ‘away’ finals to win a flag - though at least a couple would be at the MCG - but if anyone is capable, it’s them.

7. Fremantle
8. Carlton
9. Western Bulldogs

https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-news-2022-power-rankings-after-round-22-analysis-highlights-ladder-top-eight-predictions-every-club-ranked/news-story/85af5ca8b508976a2361c395decedcce

Offline georgies31

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #430 on: August 17, 2022, 06:01:02 PM »
I do agree we need to tighten up defence wise especially come finals that was our blueprint keeping teams under 70 points.

Offline one-eyed

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #431 on: August 18, 2022, 08:07:03 PM »
The AFL is starting to map out its full finals fixture, and one big change could make it easier for elimination finalists like Richmond to progress deep into September, reports @RalphyHeraldSun

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-2022-finals-fixture-how-week-one-could-play-out/news-story/c9a980b2925e1ffc72c44d3afb26eb3b

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #432 on: August 18, 2022, 08:08:06 PM »
There is more to this story ... apparently.

Offline georgies31

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Re: Can Richmond challenge again in 2022? [merged]
« Reply #433 on: August 19, 2022, 09:15:28 AM »
The AFL is starting to map out its full finals fixture, and one big change could make it easier for elimination finalists like Richmond to progress deep into September, reports @RalphyHeraldSun

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/afl-2022-finals-fixture-how-week-one-could-play-out/news-story/c9a980b2925e1ffc72c44d3afb26eb3b

What this all about as soon as we make it bang change from this corrupt organisation.

Offline one-eyed

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Why it's Tiger Time once again (theRoar)
« Reply #434 on: August 19, 2022, 05:02:20 PM »
Why it's Tiger Time once again

Dem Panopoulos
theroar.com.au
19 August 2022


It’s time to take Richmond more seriously.

Throughout the season, the club has been ticking along and given a stretch of games with almost laughable conclusions, they’ve spent periods as the punchline to many a joke.

In late May, we asked the simple question: are the Tigers any good?

In the 11 games since that point in time, they’ve had six wins, four losses and a draw. Take it back an extra month and you can add four wins to the tally.

There was genuine heartbreak in the Gold Coast game, while being beaten by the “new coach bounce” of North Melbourne was more expected than non-Richmond supporters may think, without reducing the level of embarrassment suffered.

Yet for all the headlines and mockery, Richmond’s worst result since Round 6 has been a six-point loss.

Understandably, at the time the question had been posed, many were curious as to the validity of the club’s four-game winning streak, given it had been over West Coast, Hawthorn, Essendon and Collingwood, which we now know was a good win.

Maybe it’s uncool to rate Richmond. Maybe there should always be a grain of salt taken when discussing their results.

Many don’t realise just how impressive the team’s record has been for the majority of the season, or perhaps they choose to ignore it due to a lack of perceived fixture difficulties.

In these last 11 games that we’re focusing on, the Tigers have played Sydney, Geelong, Brisbane, Fremantle and Carlton. Port Adelaide featured twice too as last year’s second-placed team, which would indicate the draw wasn’t designed to be a cakewalk for the team.

In essence, to answer the aforementioned question, yes the Tigers are pretty good.

Against really good opposition, they’ve played strong footy. In every one of their last 15 games, they’ve been in winnable positions.

During this time, they’ve had games missed from Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, Dylan Grimes, Tom Lynch and Nick Vlastuin among others, the most important players to the team’s structure.

What got masked in that three-week block of winless ridiculousness was the fact the Tigers played better footy than their opponents for the majority of those games. It’s the tale of the season for Richmond and speaks volumes to putting more weight on the process of winning rather than the immediate result.

Since Round 11, the Tigers are averaging 95 points per game, including breaking the triple-figure barrier against Brisbane and Sydney, two teams that pride themselves on strong defence.

It truly has been peak Richmond, with the team seemingly firing on all cylinders.

Everything that made them so dangerous in years gone by has re-emerged, with a lot of young talent leading the way.

There’s speed and pressure all over the ground, there’s the desire to send the ball forward at all costs and there’s the never-say-die attitude – the Lions lead the Tigers by seven goals during the second quarter of their Round 20 clash.

Most importantly, though, there’s an evenness in the forward half of the field that suits the unpredictability the Tigers love to play with.

Lynch is the main target and has been rewarded with 55 goals in 17 matches. Jack Riewoldt is more of a secondary, tap-on type of player these days, roaming around nearly as a half-forward across the arc at times. He has 36 goals in 19 games.

Shai Bolton’s incredible season has continued, with 40.39 and 16 goal assists, while still being one of the league’s best centre clearance players.

But the real X-factor has been the emergence of Noah Cumberland, whose combination of goal smarts, strength and mobility has forced teams to put a strong defender on him. He kicked five goals on lauded defender Darcy Gardiner.

On the other side of the equation is the defence, where they’ve conceded 81.09 points per game during the same period of time.

Defensive shortcomings are the main thing that separates Richmond from becoming true contenders, or at least what will have many rule them out of being a genuine threat.

A quick glance at the points conceded column will tell you that the Tigers are trying to win in shootouts, by outscoring the opposition without much care for the defensive side of the ball.

Sure, letting the opposition get 81 points per game is hardly going to result in guaranteed wins, but again, Richmond’s very much a processs-driven team rather than one that overreacts, as those outside the club do.

On the season, they’ve conceded scores in 44.3 per cent of inside 50s which is really quite bad. It’s a worse rate than Hawthorn and Adelaide.

However since Round 11, they’ve tightened up slightly, with the percentage dropping to 42.88 per cent. It’s hardly revolutionary, but it’s an improvement.

It has coincided with the resurgence of Robbie Tarrant’s reading of the play, peeling off and helping to double-team at times, while the positional switch between Noah Balta and Ben Miller has looked more natural.

Given the absence of Grimes, one of the league’s best one-on-one defenders, this improvement should be given more attention.

The numbers are still average for the Tigers, yet in terms of firepower and tactical nous, no team is quite as dangerous offensively as Richmond with the exception of Craig McRae’s yellow-and-black inspired Collingwood.

On paper, all of this points towards a dangerous team, but maybe not one that can win it all.

Given the golden era wasn’t long ago, we can quickly compare the numbers.

For all of Richmond’s greatness, this is exactly how they were successful. Overwhelm the opposition with pressure, get the ball forward at all costs and outscore everyone.

In 2019, they conceded a score in 42.65 per cent of entries – sound familiar?

There’s also been a big misconception that Richmond’s tackling is what made them so successful but rather, it’s the pressure applied that has suffocated the opposition.

Between 2017 and 2020, they were ranked seventh, 14th, 11th and eighth for tackling in the league.

In 2019 and 2020, they were ranked 11th and 18th respectively for tackles inside 50.

Much has been made in recent times of Maurice Rioli Jnr’s incredible season, averaging over 10 points per game created through his pressure acts, yet the Tigers are ranked 17th and 15th respectively for tackles and those completed inside 50.

Other key indicators are lining up nicely.

They’re ranked first for metres gained, third for intercepts and marks inside 50 and fourth for contested marks. For those playing at home, they’ve also committed the fourth-most turnovers and guess which team lead that statistic in the four years they were the best team in the league?

But perhaps more interestingly, the tackling statistic that holds more weight for this team is how many times they get caught per game.

Because unlike different teams that concede the fewest in the league, who either don’t have enough of the ball to be caught, or play an uncontested, retentive style, the Tigers are at their best when they get the ball forward.

If you consider the mix of ranking highly for metres gained, marks inside 50 and contested marks with conceding the second-fewest tackles, you have the triple-Premiership mix that Richmond relied upon.

2021 was a disjointed effort between offence and defence, a down year where things didn’t flow as easily.

This season, all the key indicators are back up and Richmond finds themselves ranked highly in all the key statistics that brought them such great success.

More than anything, though, the Tiger aura is back.

Opposition fans aren’t wanting to play against them and coaches know that this team has started to fire on all cylinders.

And if you don’t believe that there’s a bit of déjà vu at play here, Trent Cotchin last month of football has seen him average 27 disposals, 13 contested possessions, 5.5 clearances, 5.3 tackles, 4.3 inside 50s and contribute five goal assists – not bad for a player written off by the entire football public.

While they’ve hovered on the fringes of the top eight for the majority of the season, the Tigers have rejuvenated their list with young talent getting plenty of game time and have recaptured the scintillatingly dangerous football that took them to the promised land.

It’s a team that hasn’t lost by more than a goal for four months and will look to bring back Dustin Martin and potentially Dylan Grimes into the team for finals.

A tumultuous three-week period brought great joy to opposition fans but look beyond the surface and maybe the team should’ve been taken more seriously earlier on.

The Tigers are back to their best and are a true Premiership contender in 2022.

Tiger time isn’t over yet.

https://www.theroar.com.au/2022/08/19/why-its-tiger-time-once-again/